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Henry J



Posts: 5786
Joined: Mar. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,13:22   

For that population rate computation, keep in mind the number of people that had to be in Egypt at the time the pyramids were built.

  
JonF



Posts: 634
Joined: Feb. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,13:28   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,13:38)
     
Quote (JonF @ Nov. 10 2011,11:40)
     
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,12:09)
Thank you very much for the TalkOrigins Archive that dismisses the arguments of your colleagues like JonF below. That is, the fluctuating strength of the magnet field effects those radioisotopes like C14 and Argon produced via cosmic rays.

What your article fails to realize is that the discrepancies that I mentioned earlier are also based upon measurements already inside the earth's atmosphere.

Like pretty much everything you've said, that's bullshit. The T.O. article acknowledges that the production of 14C in the atmosphere is affected by changes in the cosmic ray flux, which I already mentioned (and how that is compensated for). The rate of 14C decay, the rate of Ar40 decay, and the amount of Ar40 anywhere in the Universe, or the decay rate of any radioactive isotope, is not affected by cosmic rays, and the linked T.O. article does not claim otherwise. Which facts I already pointed out.

How about some thanks for the links I posted from which you could actually learn something before regurgitating fourth-hand fundy BS?  Radiometric Dating: A Christian Perspective, Isochron Dating, and The age of the Earth (pages 109-124, although the rest of it is well worth reading as well). When you understand isochrons, Ar-Ar, U-Pb, and Pb-Pb methods than you may be qualified to have an opinion.

Yeah, Cosmic Ray Flux and these quotes that you somehow missed.

“The point is that fluctuations in the rate of C-14 production mean that at times the production rate will exceed the decay rate, while at other times the decay rate will be the larger. ….Lingenfelter actually attributed the discrepancy between the production and decay rates to possible variations in the earth's magnetic field, a conclusion which would have ruined Morris's argument. “  (Strahler, 1987, p.158)

Yup. Like I said, the rate of production of 14C varies and is compensated for, and the rate of decay does not vary. Sometimes more 14C is produced per unit time than decays (at a constant rate) per unit time, and sometimes less 14C is produced per unit time than decays (at a constant rate) per unit time. No problemo.

I have Strahler at home, I'll check those ellipses.
 
Quote
Btw, AR40 and C14 are cosmogenic radioisotopes produced by cosmic rays.

Caught by my typo! 40Ar (your capital R is incorrect) is stable, the result of the decay of 40K. 38Ar and 36Ar are indeed cosmogenic, but that is irrelevant to the age of the Earth and fossils.
 
Quote
Btw 2, you also seem to be projecting your own inabilities to put arguments in your own words? Isochron dating is taking several measurements from several surrounding samples with several radioisotopes. It doesnt mean though those surrounding rocks were not all drenched and for millennia by the same radioisotopic contamination.

You still don't have the faintest idea of how isochron dating works. When you figure it out, from the links I gave, maybe we can have a discussion.

(In almost all the isochron methods, only one radioisotope is used. And you haven't a clue from whence samples come).

It's worth noting that the vast majority of the many dates produced in the last two decades or so, including the oldest minerals and the oldest rocks found to date, came from U-Pb concordia-discordia dating. Even the creationist RATE group acknowledges that the lead found in zircons and similar samples is all a result of the decay of uranium in-situ and the only explanation that might possibly work is vastly accelerated radioactive decay:
 
Quote
Samples 1 through 3 had helium retentions of 58, 27, and 17 percent. The fact that these percentages are high confirms that a large amount of nuclear decay did indeed occur in the zircons. Other evidence strongly supports much nuclear decay having occurred in the past (Humphreys, 2000, pp. 335–337). We emphasize this point because many creationists have assumed that “old” radioisotopic ages are merely an artifact of analysis, not really indicating the occurrence of large amounts of nuclear decay. But according to the measured amount of lead physically present in the zircons, approximately 1.5 billion years worth—at today’s rates—of nuclear decay occurred. Supporting that, sample 1 still retains 58% of all the alpha particles (the helium) that would have been emitted during this decay of uranium and thorium to lead.

(D. R. Humphreys, S. A. Austin, J. R. Baumgardner, & A. A. Snelling, "Helium Diffusion Rates Support Accelerated Nuclear Decay). Emphasis in original.

Too bad for creationists that this AND would have subtle side effects, such as killing all life twice over from heat and radiation, and leaving the Earth's surface molten for millenia. See RATE in Review: Unresolved Problems.
 
Quote
It also doesnt dismiss the fact that scientists have such a bias that they throw out any estimates that dont fit their preconceived agendas.

I've seen this claim so many times, and never any data to back it up. You could get some if you wanted. There's a USGS lab in Menlo Park, California, that's been doing dating for decades. It's a government agency. Request their records of  lab tests, using the FOIA if necessary. Correlate those tests to publications. I've suggested this many times, but nobody's done it.
 
Quote
Agendas further  verified by all the the recent  brouhaha about fluctuating decay fluctuations.

Ain't no brouhaha. Just scientists calmly doing science, turning up possible decay variations that are six orders of magnitude too small to support your scenario.

Still waiting for some thanks for the links I posted from which you could actually learn something before regurgitating fourth-hand fundy BS?  Radiometric Dating: A Christian Perspective, Isochron Dating, and The age of the Earth (pages 109-124, although the rest of it is well worth reading as well). When you understand isochrons, Ar-Ar, U-Pb, and Pb-Pb methods than you may be qualified to have an opinion.

But it appears you're so afraid of reality you can't even acknowledge the existence of those links.

  
Richardthughes



Posts: 11178
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,13:29   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,13:05)
Quote (Richardthughes @ Nov. 10 2011,13:03)
Quote (Richardthughes @ Nov. 10 2011,12:18)
 
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,12:02)
Oh so thats why you you feel the need to focus "only" on this problem while ignoring the contamination and calibration problems that I keep asking  you about

I'm still waiting to hear how whole civilizations destroyed by the global flood recorded the even on their staffs and passed the story down to future generations.

And still waiting.

Do a study on ancient scriptures and oral traditions

Erm no. Tell me how cultures who are completely wiped out i.e. not on the boat, manage to pass anything down.

--------------
"Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield
"You magnificent bastard! " : Louis
"ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard
"I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932
"...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

  
Tracy P. Hamilton



Posts: 1239
Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,13:48   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 09 2011,22:24)
   
Quote (Tracy P. Hamilton @ Nov. 08 2011,14:11)
       
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 08 2011,12:56)
             
Quote (Tracy P. Hamilton @ Nov. 08 2011,12:47)
             
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 07 2011,18:42)
       

Of course they are going to fight it tooth and nail. In fact your article says:  "Recently, Jenkins et al. [4] proposed that these decay rate variations were correlated with the distance between the Earth and the Sun. Jenkins et al. went on to suggest that the underlying mechanism responsible for this correlation might be some previously unobserved field emitted by the Sun or perhaps was the result of the (±3%) annual variation in the flux of solar
neutrinos reaching the Earth. If the Jenkins et al. [4] proposal were correct, it would have profound consequences for many areas of science and engineering.

Oh and Notice how the "correlated" is used? It doesnt actually dismiss the 3% decay rate but rather some correlations with the son.

"We observe no systematic  oscillations in half-life and can set an upper limit on their amplitude of ?0.02%."

No oscillations AT ALL, not just no oscillations based on earth orbit. Also 0.02% < 3%, IDiot.


Again, your looking at an older article about different isotopes.

{snip more of the same}

Now why should these be unaffected, but other isotopes affected?  There is no physical basis whatsoever for thinking that.  Observation of no variation in beta and alpha decays is directly relevant to rebutting claims of varing decay rates, even if they are different isotopes, even if the claim is made in a later paper, because they all have the same decay mechanisms (alpha and beta) and so all isotopes using the same mechanism should be affected.

But no, an IDiot is incapable of thinking for himself.

Requiring a physical basis = "fighting tooth and nail" to somebody who does not understand how science works.

By the way, if alpha decay is included, a third paper also see no variation in decay of Pu-238. P.S. Cooper, arXiv:0809.4248v1 [astro-ph] 24 September, 2008.  And

So we have:
Long established well known particle physics
knowledge of how alpha decay works (strong nuclear force)
Knowledge of how beta decay works (electroweak force)
Knowledge of how gamma decay works (nuclear excitation) 3 groups seeing no variation in decay rates
Previous reports of yearly variation disappearing when ratios are used, which cancels error in intrumentation

vs
only one group seeing variation
a requirement that particle physics be all wrong but nobody has noticed any other discrepancies
plus one Bozo



Let the handwaving commence!

   
Quote
Actually, radioisotopes have different decay events, sensitivities, and energy barriers that require a specific activation energy that reactants must surpass in order to nudge it into decaying.


Allow me to quote what wikipedia says about alpha decay:
 
Quote


Alpha decay, like other cluster decays, is fundamentally a quantum tunneling process. Unlike beta decay, alpha decay is governed by the interplay between the nuclear force and the electromagnetic force.


How is the distance from the sun (10^8 of km) going to affect the strong nuclear force (range of only 10^-15 m)?  
How does it affect the coulomb repulsion between the protons of the nucleus?  
Answer: it can't.
Observation from Cassini space craft: It didn't.

{irrelevancies and other hand-waving deleted}

I have only been talking about a claimed solar effect on radioactive decay, not any other environmental effects.  The fact that you do not understand this is not my problem, but yours.

--------------
"Following what I just wrote about fitness, you’re taking refuge in what we see in the world."  PaV

"The simple equation F = MA leads to the concept of four-dimensional space." GilDodgen

"We have no brain, I don't, for thinking." Robert Byers

  
oldmanintheskydidntdoit



Posts: 4999
Joined: July 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,13:55   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,13:19)
Quote (oldmanintheskydidntdoit @ Nov. 10 2011,12:58)
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,11:57)
For the sake of argument, lets say the Flood occurred 4500 years ago. It needs less than 0.5% per year growth.6 That’s not very much.

At what mortality rate?

What average number of children per couple?

If you don't know these basics then it seems to me your claim is not supported!

I gave you the rate with the most extreme mortality rate

Your goalpost only proves that you cant disprove the equation?

What, you mean this:

Quote
For the sake of argument, lets say the Flood occurred 4500 years ago. It needs less than 0.5% per year growth.6 That’s not very much.


Don't see any equation there. Show your working!

How many people were alive when the pyramids were built?

--------------
I also mentioned that He'd have to give me a thorough explanation as to *why* I must "eat human babies".
FTK

if there are even critical flaws in Gauger’s work, the evo mat narrative cannot stand
Gordon Mullings

  
Tracy P. Hamilton



Posts: 1239
Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,14:00   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,13:06)
Quote (Erasmus @ FCD,Nov. 10 2011,13:04)
and, people die after they're born.

you stupid little twit

Yeah and leave behind bones and tools

and these mysterious staffs from every culture that recorded the Global Flood.  Could you tell us more about them, please?

--------------
"Following what I just wrote about fitness, you’re taking refuge in what we see in the world."  PaV

"The simple equation F = MA leads to the concept of four-dimensional space." GilDodgen

"We have no brain, I don't, for thinking." Robert Byers

  
blipey



Posts: 2061
Joined: June 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,14:27   

Quote (Henry J @ Nov. 10 2011,13:22)
For that population rate computation, keep in mind the number of people that had to be in Egypt at the time the pyramids were built.

Ooh, this is fun.

Given the FLOOD was 4500 years ago and the population of the world at the height of the Egyptian empire (2030 BC) was 23,000,000ish, lets see if that gibes.

I plugged in modern day death rates (generous on my part I think).

I used a birth rate of every woman of childbearing age having 4 children in their lives.

What number do we come up with?

10,040 people.  We seem to be short a few.

Well, people had lots and lots of children then.  And let's put in a more probable set of death rates.  Let's go with:

births per childbearing woman = 8

Death rates: 1000, 6000, 3000, 7000  (Which I think is still very generous, 1% infant mortality and lots elderly still bopping about in ancient times).

We get 23ish million people.

Are these parameters correct, forastero?

--------------
But I get the trick question- there isn't any such thing as one molecule of water. -JoeG

And scientists rarely test theories. -Gary Gaulin

   
oldmanintheskydidntdoit



Posts: 4999
Joined: July 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,14:56   

Quote (blipey @ Nov. 10 2011,14:27)
Are these parameters correct, forastero?

And if not, what are the correct parameters forastero?

Bonus points: How do you know what the correct parameters are forastero?

poned.

--------------
I also mentioned that He'd have to give me a thorough explanation as to *why* I must "eat human babies".
FTK

if there are even critical flaws in Gauger’s work, the evo mat narrative cannot stand
Gordon Mullings

  
Wesley R. Elsberry



Posts: 4991
Joined: May 2002

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,15:02   

A critique of the SciCre population argument.

--------------
"You can't teach an old dogma new tricks." - Dorothy Parker

    
JohnW



Posts: 3217
Joined: Aug. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,15:30   

Quote (Wesley R. Elsberry @ Nov. 10 2011,13:02)
A critique of the SciCre population argument.

As this is likely to be too many long words for the muppet, here's the money shot:

   
Quote

World Population    Date       Event
 
              17          2566 BC  Construction of Great Pyramid
         2,729          1332 BC  Amenhotep IV/Akhenaten dies
         5,000          1185 BC  Trojan War
                         ~1200 BC  Hebrew exodus, # of males = 603,550 (excluding Levites)
        32,971           776 BC  First Olympic games
        87,507           490 BC  Greek wars with Persia
      133,744           387 BC  Brennus' Sack of Rome
      586,678             28 BC  Augustus' census of Rome (70 to 100 million counted)
      655,683               1 AD  Nice date


--------------
Math is just a language of reality. Its a waste of time to know it. - Robert Byers

There isn't any probability that the letter d is in the word "mathematics"...  The correct answer would be "not even 0" - JoeG

  
JonF



Posts: 634
Joined: Feb. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,15:54   

Wotta maroon!!

   
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,13:38)
   
Quote (JonF @ Nov. 10 2011,11:40)
     
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,12:09)
Thank you very much for the TalkOrigins Archive that dismisses the arguments of your colleagues like JonF below. That is, the fluctuating strength of the magnet field effects those radioisotopes like C14 and Argon produced via cosmic rays.

What your article fails to realize is that the discrepancies that I mentioned earlier are also based upon measurements already inside the earth's atmosphere.

Like pretty much everything you've said, that's bullshit. The T.O. article acknowledges that the production of 14C in the atmosphere is affected by changes in the cosmic ray flux, which I already mentioned (and how that is compensated for). The rate of 14C decay, the rate of Ar40 decay, and the amount of Ar40 anywhere in the Universe, or the decay rate of any radioactive isotope, is not affected by cosmic rays, and the linked T.O. article does not claim otherwise. Which facts I already pointed out.

How about some thanks for the links I posted from which you could actually learn something before regurgitating fourth-hand fundy BS?  Radiometric Dating: A Christian Perspective, Isochron Dating, and The age of the Earth (pages 109-124, although the rest of it is well worth reading as well). When you understand isochrons, Ar-Ar, U-Pb, and Pb-Pb methods than you may be qualified to have an opinion.

Yeah, Cosmic Ray Flux and these quotes that you somehow missed.

“The point is that fluctuations in the rate of C-14 production mean that at times the production rate will exceed the decay rate, while at other times the decay rate will be the larger. ….Lingenfelter actually attributed the discrepancy between the production and decay rates to possible variations in the earth's magnetic field, a conclusion which would have ruined Morris's argument. “  (Strahler, 1987, p.158)

That quote does not appear in the linked page at T.O., nor does it appear in Strahler. What does appear at T.O. is:

Quote
Quote
The point is that fluctuations in the rate of C-14 production mean that at times the production rate will exceed the decay rate,while at other times the decay rate will be the larger.


(Strahler, 1987, p.158)

Lingenfelter actually attributed the discrepancy between the production and decay rates to possible variations in the earth's magnetic field, a conclusion which would have ruined Morris's argument.


IOW, you can't even copy and paste. You mixed up Strahler's and Mason's words into one quote attributed to Strahler.

Here's a more complete selection from Strahler:

Quote
One authority from mainstream science, cited by Morris in support of the greater production than decay of C-14, is Richard E. Lingenfelter (Morris, 1975, p. 164). Lingenfelter states:

Quote
On comparing the calculated value of the carbon 14 production rate, averaged over the last ten solar cycles, of 2.50 ± 0.50 C14 atoms per square centimeter per second with the most recent estimates of the decay rate of 1.8 ± 0.2 . . . and 1.9 ± 0.2 . . ., there is strong indication, despite the large errors, that the present natural production rate exceeds the natural decay rate by as much as 25 per cent. (1963, p. 51)


(Note: Citations of sources given by Lingenfelter have been deleted from the above paragraph).

What Morris does not tell the reader is that Lingenfelter continues his discussion by attributing the discrepancy between production and decay rates to possible variations in the earth's magnetic field, a subject we have explored in earlier pages. Lingenfelter's paper was written in 1963, before the cycles of C-14 variation we described had been fully documented. The point is that fluctuations in the rate of C-14 production mean that at times the production rate will exceed the decay rate, while at other times the decay rate will be the larger. As curves A and C in Figure 19.5 show, before about -3000 y., C-14 was decaying faster than it was being formed, with the result that the C-14 ages are too young. The creation scientists ignore this newer information, which is readily available to the public in published journals; it was available in 1974 when the creationist textbook was published. They have made their calculations from the unsupportable assumption that the C-14 production rate has always been greater than the decay rate by the percentage observed today. That is an untenable assumption in the light of evidence to the contrary. Creationists have used the same form of unsupported extrapolation that we found in creation scientist Barnes's calculation of a limiting age of the earth by assumed constant decay rate of the earth's magnetic field.




And, of course, you ignored the many rrefutaions of your claims made in the T.O. article.

Wotta maroon!

  
Henry J



Posts: 5786
Joined: Mar. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,22:43   

Quote
Ooh, this is fun.

What units are the birth and death rates in for that input screen? Are there assumed decimal points? Is it percent per decade?

Henry

  
Henry J



Posts: 5786
Joined: Mar. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,22:44   

Sometimes posters will say things like "The fact that you do not understand this is not my problem, but yours."

I'm left thinking that while the original problem is in one who refuses to listen, it is also a problem for the one who isn't listened to, albeit a different kind of problem.

Henry

  
OgreMkV



Posts: 3668
Joined: Oct. 2009

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 10 2011,23:05   

Quote (Henry J @ Nov. 10 2011,22:44)
Sometimes posters will say things like "The fact that you do not understand this is not my problem, but yours."

I'm left thinking that while the original problem is in one who refuses to listen, it is also a problem for the one who isn't listened to, albeit a different kind of problem.

Henry

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.

You can however, shove a firehose in his direction and let fly.

--------------
Ignored by those who can't provide evidence for their claims.

http://skepticink.com/smilodo....retreat

   
blipey



Posts: 2061
Joined: June 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,11:06   

Quote (Henry J @ Nov. 10 2011,22:43)
Quote
Ooh, this is fun.

What units are the birth and death rates in for that input screen? Are there assumed decimal points? Is it percent per decade?

Henry

The birth rate is number of live births per female of childbearing age (assumed to be 20yo - 40 yo for this calculation)

The death rate is given in number of deaths per 100,000 people.

--------------
But I get the trick question- there isn't any such thing as one molecule of water. -JoeG

And scientists rarely test theories. -Gary Gaulin

   
forastero



Posts: 458
Joined: Oct. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,20:15   

Quote (JonF @ Nov. 10 2011,13:28)
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,13:38)
     
Quote (JonF @ Nov. 10 2011,11:40)
       
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,12:09)
Thank you very much for the TalkOrigins Archive that dismisses the arguments of your colleagues like JonF below. That is, the fluctuating strength of the magnet field effects those radioisotopes like C14 and Argon produced via cosmic rays.

What your article fails to realize is that the discrepancies that I mentioned earlier are also based upon measurements already inside the earth's atmosphere.

Like pretty much everything you've said, that's bullshit. The T.O. article acknowledges that the production of 14C in the atmosphere is affected by changes in the cosmic ray flux, which I already mentioned (and how that is compensated for). The rate of 14C decay, the rate of Ar40 decay, and the amount of Ar40 anywhere in the Universe, or the decay rate of any radioactive isotope, is not affected by cosmic rays, and the linked T.O. article does not claim otherwise. Which facts I already pointed out.

How about some thanks for the links I posted from which you could actually learn something before regurgitating fourth-hand fundy BS?  Radiometric Dating: A Christian Perspective, Isochron Dating, and The age of the Earth (pages 109-124, although the rest of it is well worth reading as well). When you understand isochrons, Ar-Ar, U-Pb, and Pb-Pb methods than you may be qualified to have an opinion.

Yeah, Cosmic Ray Flux and these quotes that you somehow missed.

“The point is that fluctuations in the rate of C-14 production mean that at times the production rate will exceed the decay rate, while at other times the decay rate will be the larger. ….Lingenfelter actually attributed the discrepancy between the production and decay rates to possible variations in the earth's magnetic field, a conclusion which would have ruined Morris's argument. “  (Strahler, 1987, p.158)

Yup. Like I said, the rate of production of 14C varies and is compensated for, and the rate of decay does not vary. Sometimes more 14C is produced per unit time than decays (at a constant rate) per unit time, and sometimes less 14C is produced per unit time than decays (at a constant rate) per unit time. No problemo.

I have Strahler at home, I'll check those ellipses.
   
Quote
Btw, AR40 and C14 are cosmogenic radioisotopes produced by cosmic rays.

Caught by my typo! 40Ar (your capital R is incorrect) is stable, the result of the decay of 40K. 38Ar and 36Ar are indeed cosmogenic, but that is irrelevant to the age of the Earth and fossils.
   
Quote
Btw 2, you also seem to be projecting your own inabilities to put arguments in your own words? Isochron dating is taking several measurements from several surrounding samples with several radioisotopes. It doesnt mean though those surrounding rocks were not all drenched and for millennia by the same radioisotopic contamination.

You still don't have the faintest idea of how isochron dating works. When you figure it out, from the links I gave, maybe we can have a discussion.

(In almost all the isochron methods, only one radioisotope is used. And you haven't a clue from whence samples come).

It's worth noting that the vast majority of the many dates produced in the last two decades or so, including the oldest minerals and the oldest rocks found to date, came from U-Pb concordia-discordia dating. Even the creationist RATE group acknowledges that the lead found in zircons and similar samples is all a result of the decay of uranium in-situ and the only explanation that might possibly work is vastly accelerated radioactive decay:
 
Quote
Samples 1 through 3 had helium retentions of 58, 27, and 17 percent. The fact that these percentages are high confirms that a large amount of nuclear decay did indeed occur in the zircons. Other evidence strongly supports much nuclear decay having occurred in the past (Humphreys, 2000, pp. 335–337). We emphasize this point because many creationists have assumed that “old” radioisotopic ages are merely an artifact of analysis, not really indicating the occurrence of large amounts of nuclear decay. But according to the measured amount of lead physically present in the zircons, approximately 1.5 billion years worth—at today’s rates—of nuclear decay occurred. Supporting that, sample 1 still retains 58% of all the alpha particles (the helium) that would have been emitted during this decay of uranium and thorium to lead.

(D. R. Humphreys, S. A. Austin, J. R. Baumgardner, & A. A. Snelling, "Helium Diffusion Rates Support Accelerated Nuclear Decay). Emphasis in original.

Too bad for creationists that this AND would have subtle side effects, such as killing all life twice over from heat and radiation, and leaving the Earth's surface molten for millenia. See RATE in Review: Unresolved Problems.
 
Quote
It also doesnt dismiss the fact that scientists have such a bias that they throw out any estimates that dont fit their preconceived agendas.

I've seen this claim so many times, and never any data to back it up. You could get some if you wanted. There's a USGS lab in Menlo Park, California, that's been doing dating for decades. It's a government agency. Request their records of  lab tests, using the FOIA if necessary. Correlate those tests to publications. I've suggested this many times, but nobody's done it.
 
Quote
Agendas further  verified by all the the recent  brouhaha about fluctuating decay fluctuations.

Ain't no brouhaha. Just scientists calmly doing science, turning up possible decay variations that are six orders of magnitude too small to support your scenario.

Still waiting for some thanks for the links I posted from which you could actually learn something before regurgitating fourth-hand fundy BS?  Radiometric Dating: A Christian Perspective, Isochron Dating, and The age of the Earth (pages 109-124, although the rest of it is well worth reading as well). When you understand isochrons, Ar-Ar, U-Pb, and Pb-Pb methods than you may be qualified to have an opinion.

But it appears you're so afraid of reality you can't even acknowledge the existence of those links.

Actually you insisted that my quote:"fluctuating strength of the magnet field effects those radioisotopes like C14 and Argon produced via cosmic rays." was bull____.

Second of all, cosmic rays can effect any radioistope and your own priests cry atmospheric contamination of all the coal and dinosaurs found with C14.  

Thirdly, your whole point here is mute do to the fact that the C14 dating depends upon the how much carbon is in the atmosphere. To say that science knows how to counter this is just more radiomagic hand waving because there is no way to calibrate carbon fluctuations that far back. Plus, atmospheric carbon ratios are not even the same everywhere .

Fourthly, the whole point of Isochron dating is the use of more thane one daughter isotopes. Geologists today observe the present proportions of parent and daughter isotopes in a sample and use those proportions to date the sample but isochron dating takes it a step further by measuring more than one type of daughter isotope

Finally, not only does your Isochron dating (like with your Argon) dating suffer contamination from various sources before and during crystallization, but igneous rocks have unknown magma ratios of radioisotopes that can produce wide discrepancies in post crystallization ratios. Sedimentary rocks, which contain most fossils are even more prone to unknown mixing, contamination, and ratios.

  
Reciprocating Bill



Posts: 4265
Joined: Oct. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,20:44   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,21:15)
Thirdly, your whole point here is mute do to the fact...

"Mute do to the fact" forastero? Really?
 
Quote
...that the C14 dating depends upon the how much carbon is in the atmosphere...[blah blah blah]

So, then, it is your assertion that:

1) environmental fluctuations can result in changes in radiometric decay rates of up to 0.5%

2) these and similar errors can "accumulate" to the point that dated objects (such as the earth) have been estimated to be 227,000 times older than they actually are (4,540,000,000/20,000 = 227,000).

Rather like: Upon my discovery that when the speedometer of my car reads 70 miles per hour I am actually traveling 70.35 mph, I am justified in concluding that I may at times have moved down the interstate at over 15 million miles per hour.

Because small errors may accumulate.

--------------
Myth: Something that never was true, and always will be.

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you."
- David Foster Wallace

"Here’s a clue. Snarky banalities are not a substitute for saying something intelligent. Write that down."
- Barry Arrington

  
forastero



Posts: 458
Joined: Oct. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,20:56   

Quote (Tracy P. Hamilton @ Nov. 10 2011,13:48)
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 09 2011,22:24)
     
Quote (Tracy P. Hamilton @ Nov. 08 2011,14:11)
       
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 08 2011,12:56)
             
Quote (Tracy P. Hamilton @ Nov. 08 2011,12:47)
               
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 07 2011,18:42)
       

Of course they are going to fight it tooth and nail. In fact your article says:  "Recently, Jenkins et al. [4] proposed that these decay rate variations were correlated with the distance between the Earth and the Sun. Jenkins et al. went on to suggest that the underlying mechanism responsible for this correlation might be some previously unobserved field emitted by the Sun or perhaps was the result of the (±3%) annual variation in the flux of solar
neutrinos reaching the Earth. If the Jenkins et al. [4] proposal were correct, it would have profound consequences for many areas of science and engineering.

Oh and Notice how the "correlated" is used? It doesnt actually dismiss the 3% decay rate but rather some correlations with the son.

"We observe no systematic  oscillations in half-life and can set an upper limit on their amplitude of ?0.02%."

No oscillations AT ALL, not just no oscillations based on earth orbit. Also 0.02% < 3%, IDiot.


Again, your looking at an older article about different isotopes.

{snip more of the same}

Now why should these be unaffected, but other isotopes affected?  There is no physical basis whatsoever for thinking that.  Observation of no variation in beta and alpha decays is directly relevant to rebutting claims of varing decay rates, even if they are different isotopes, even if the claim is made in a later paper, because they all have the same decay mechanisms (alpha and beta) and so all isotopes using the same mechanism should be affected.

But no, an IDiot is incapable of thinking for himself.

Requiring a physical basis = "fighting tooth and nail" to somebody who does not understand how science works.

By the way, if alpha decay is included, a third paper also see no variation in decay of Pu-238. P.S. Cooper, arXiv:0809.4248v1 [astro-ph] 24 September, 2008.  And

So we have:
Long established well known particle physics
knowledge of how alpha decay works (strong nuclear force)
Knowledge of how beta decay works (electroweak force)
Knowledge of how gamma decay works (nuclear excitation) 3 groups seeing no variation in decay rates
Previous reports of yearly variation disappearing when ratios are used, which cancels error in intrumentation

vs
only one group seeing variation
a requirement that particle physics be all wrong but nobody has noticed any other discrepancies
plus one Bozo



Let the handwaving commence!

     
Quote
Actually, radioisotopes have different decay events, sensitivities, and energy barriers that require a specific activation energy that reactants must surpass in order to nudge it into decaying.


Allow me to quote what wikipedia says about alpha decay:
   
Quote


Alpha decay, like other cluster decays, is fundamentally a quantum tunneling process. Unlike beta decay, alpha decay is governed by the interplay between the nuclear force and the electromagnetic force.


How is the distance from the sun (10^8 of km) going to affect the strong nuclear force (range of only 10^-15 m)?  
How does it affect the coulomb repulsion between the protons of the nucleus?  
Answer: it can't.
Observation from Cassini space craft: It didn't.

{irrelevancies and other hand-waving deleted}

I have only been talking about a claimed solar effect on radioactive decay, not any other environmental effects.  The fact that you do not understand this is not my problem, but yours.

First of all, if you had really read about strong nuclear force you wouldnt be defending his disagreement to the fact that different radioisotopes have different sensitivities and binding energies.

Secondly, strong nuclear and electromagnetic forces dont necessarily make an isotope the most stable. In fact, its the alpha decaying isotopes that are are usually the most unstable.

Thirdly, Quantum tunneling is actually what allows the reaction to proceed through the energy barrier and cosmic rays can induce it.

Fourthly, why are you so uptight about alpha decaying radioisotopes when it seems logical that most fossils are dated with beta decaying isotopes?

  
forastero



Posts: 458
Joined: Oct. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,21:00   

Quote (Reciprocating Bill @ Nov. 11 2011,20:44)
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,21:15)
Thirdly, your whole point here is mute do to the fact...

"Mute do to the fact" forastero? Really?
 
Quote
...that the C14 dating depends upon the how much carbon is in the atmosphere...[blah blah blah]

So, then, it is your assertion that:

1) environmental fluctuations can result in changes in radiometric decay rates of up to 0.5%

2) these and similar errors can "accumulate" to the point that dated objects (such as the earth) have been estimated to be 227,000 times older than they actually are (4,540,000,000/20,000 = 227,000).

Rather like: Upon my discovery that when the speedometer of my car reads 70 miles per hour I am actually traveling 70.35 mph, I am justified in concluding that I may at times have moved down the interstate at over 15 million miles per hour.

Because small errors may accumulate.

You are confusing our c14 ratio problem with the decay fluctuation discussion

  
forastero



Posts: 458
Joined: Oct. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,21:03   

Quote (blipey @ Nov. 10 2011,14:27)
Quote (Henry J @ Nov. 10 2011,13:22)
For that population rate computation, keep in mind the number of people that had to be in Egypt at the time the pyramids were built.

Ooh, this is fun.

Given the FLOOD was 4500 years ago and the population of the world at the height of the Egyptian empire (2030 BC) was 23,000,000ish, lets see if that gibes.

I plugged in modern day death rates (generous on my part I think).

I used a birth rate of every woman of childbearing age having 4 children in their lives.

What number do we come up with?

10,040 people.  We seem to be short a few.

Well, people had lots and lots of children then.  And let's put in a more probable set of death rates.  Let's go with:

births per childbearing woman = 8

Death rates: 1000, 6000, 3000, 7000  (Which I think is still very generous, 1% infant mortality and lots elderly still bopping about in ancient times).

We get 23ish million people.

Are these parameters correct, forastero?

Lot of words but try an objective account with the formula and stats that "I" offered

  
Erasmus, FCD



Posts: 6349
Joined: June 2007

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,21:19   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,22:00)
Quote (Reciprocating Bill @ Nov. 11 2011,20:44)
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,21:15)
Thirdly, your whole point here is mute do to the fact...

"Mute do to the fact" forastero? Really?
   
Quote
...that the C14 dating depends upon the how much carbon is in the atmosphere...[blah blah blah]

So, then, it is your assertion that:

1) environmental fluctuations can result in changes in radiometric decay rates of up to 0.5%

2) these and similar errors can "accumulate" to the point that dated objects (such as the earth) have been estimated to be 227,000 times older than they actually are (4,540,000,000/20,000 = 227,000).

Rather like: Upon my discovery that when the speedometer of my car reads 70 miles per hour I am actually traveling 70.35 mph, I am justified in concluding that I may at times have moved down the interstate at over 15 million miles per hour.

Because small errors may accumulate.

You are confusing our c14 ratio problem with the decay fluctuation discussion

No muppet you are just talking empty bullshit and you know it.  If you don't like the error estimates RB provided why don't you show us yours, instead of just wanking yourself off with a buncha whiny fingersniffing conspiracy sobstory attention whoring.  

Or, why don't you try to go suck off a nuclear reactor?

--------------
You're obviously illiterate as hell. Peach, bro.-FtK

Finding something hard to believe based on the evidence, is science.-JoeG

the odds of getting some loathsome taint are low-- Gordon E Mullings Manjack Heights Montserrat

I work on molecular systems with pathway charts and such.-Giggles

  
forastero



Posts: 458
Joined: Oct. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,21:27   

Quote (Erasmus, FCD @ Nov. 11 2011,21:19)
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,22:00)
Quote (Reciprocating Bill @ Nov. 11 2011,20:44)
 
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,21:15)
Thirdly, your whole point here is mute do to the fact...

"Mute do to the fact" forastero? Really?
   
Quote
...that the C14 dating depends upon the how much carbon is in the atmosphere...[blah blah blah]

So, then, it is your assertion that:

1) environmental fluctuations can result in changes in radiometric decay rates of up to 0.5%

2) these and similar errors can "accumulate" to the point that dated objects (such as the earth) have been estimated to be 227,000 times older than they actually are (4,540,000,000/20,000 = 227,000).

Rather like: Upon my discovery that when the speedometer of my car reads 70 miles per hour I am actually traveling 70.35 mph, I am justified in concluding that I may at times have moved down the interstate at over 15 million miles per hour.

Because small errors may accumulate.

You are confusing our c14 ratio problem with the decay fluctuation discussion

No muppet you are just talking empty bullshit and you know it.  If you don't like the error estimates RB provided why don't you show us yours, instead of just wanking yourself off with a buncha whiny fingersniffing conspiracy sobstory attention whoring.  

Or, why don't you try to go suck off a nuclear reactor?

If Ogre is the knight reduced to a pinky scratching at my boots, you are that pauper pitching poo from the protection of the roof

  
Reciprocating Bill



Posts: 4265
Joined: Oct. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,21:36   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,22:00)
You are confusing our c14 ratio problem with the decay fluctuation discussion

You evaded answering the question when it was first posed in the context of decay rates. It is asked explicitly in those terms. Here is the question again:

Is it your assertion that:

1) environmental fluctuations can result in changes in radiometric decay rates of up to 0.5%?

2) these and similar errors, of similar magnitude, can "accumulate" to the point that you are justified in asserting objects (such as the earth) are estimated to be 227,000x older than they actually are (4,540,000,000/20,000 = 227,000)?

Rather like: Upon my discovery that when the speedometer of my car reads 70 miles per hour I am actually traveling 70.35 mph, I am justified in concluding that I may at times have moved down the interstate at over 15 million miles per hour.

Right?

--------------
Myth: Something that never was true, and always will be.

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you."
- David Foster Wallace

"Here’s a clue. Snarky banalities are not a substitute for saying something intelligent. Write that down."
- Barry Arrington

  
forastero



Posts: 458
Joined: Oct. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,22:07   

Quote (JonF @ Nov. 10 2011,15:54)
Wotta maroon!!

   
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,13:38)
     
Quote (JonF @ Nov. 10 2011,11:40)
     
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 10 2011,12:09)
Thank you very much for the TalkOrigins Archive that dismisses the arguments of your colleagues like JonF below. That is, the fluctuating strength of the magnet field effects those radioisotopes like C14 and Argon produced via cosmic rays.

What your article fails to realize is that the discrepancies that I mentioned earlier are also based upon measurements already inside the earth's atmosphere.

Like pretty much everything you've said, that's bullshit. The T.O. article acknowledges that the production of 14C in the atmosphere is affected by changes in the cosmic ray flux, which I already mentioned (and how that is compensated for). The rate of 14C decay, the rate of Ar40 decay, and the amount of Ar40 anywhere in the Universe, or the decay rate of any radioactive isotope, is not affected by cosmic rays, and the linked T.O. article does not claim otherwise. Which facts I already pointed out.

How about some thanks for the links I posted from which you could actually learn something before regurgitating fourth-hand fundy BS?  Radiometric Dating: A Christian Perspective, Isochron Dating, and The age of the Earth (pages 109-124, although the rest of it is well worth reading as well). When you understand isochrons, Ar-Ar, U-Pb, and Pb-Pb methods than you may be qualified to have an opinion.

Yeah, Cosmic Ray Flux and these quotes that you somehow missed.

“The point is that fluctuations in the rate of C-14 production mean that at times the production rate will exceed the decay rate, while at other times the decay rate will be the larger. ….Lingenfelter actually attributed the discrepancy between the production and decay rates to possible variations in the earth's magnetic field, a conclusion which would have ruined Morris's argument. “  (Strahler, 1987, p.158)

That quote does not appear in the linked page at T.O., nor does it appear in Strahler. What does appear at T.O. is:

Quote
Quote
The point is that fluctuations in the rate of C-14 production mean that at times the production rate will exceed the decay rate,while at other times the decay rate will be the larger.


(Strahler, 1987, p.158)

Lingenfelter actually attributed the discrepancy between the production and decay rates to possible variations in the earth's magnetic field, a conclusion which would have ruined Morris's argument.


IOW, you can't even copy and paste. You mixed up Strahler's and Mason's words into one quote attributed to Strahler.

Here's a more complete selection from Strahler:

 
Quote
One authority from mainstream science, cited by Morris in support of the greater production than decay of C-14, is Richard E. Lingenfelter (Morris, 1975, p. 164). Lingenfelter states:

 
Quote
On comparing the calculated value of the carbon 14 production rate, averaged over the last ten solar cycles, of 2.50 ± 0.50 C14 atoms per square centimeter per second with the most recent estimates of the decay rate of 1.8 ± 0.2 . . . and 1.9 ± 0.2 . . ., there is strong indication, despite the large errors, that the present natural production rate exceeds the natural decay rate by as much as 25 per cent. (1963, p. 51)


(Note: Citations of sources given by Lingenfelter have been deleted from the above paragraph).

What Morris does not tell the reader is that Lingenfelter continues his discussion by attributing the discrepancy between production and decay rates to possible variations in the earth's magnetic field, a subject we have explored in earlier pages. Lingenfelter's paper was written in 1963, before the cycles of C-14 variation we described had been fully documented. The point is that fluctuations in the rate of C-14 production mean that at times the production rate will exceed the decay rate, while at other times the decay rate will be the larger. As curves A and C in Figure 19.5 show, before about -3000 y., C-14 was decaying faster than it was being formed, with the result that the C-14 ages are too young. The creation scientists ignore this newer information, which is readily available to the public in published journals; it was available in 1974 when the creationist textbook was published. They have made their calculations from the unsupportable assumption that the C-14 production rate has always been greater than the decay rate by the percentage observed today. That is an untenable assumption in the light of evidence to the contrary. Creationists have used the same form of unsupported extrapolation that we found in creation scientist Barnes's calculation of a limiting age of the earth by assumed constant decay rate of the earth's magnetic field.




And, of course, you ignored the many rrefutaions of your claims made in the T.O. article.

Wotta maroon!

And of coarse you did not reveal the link that you are accusing me of misquoting. Here it is http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs....14.html

..and proving yall's chronic fear mongering propaganda

Moreover your article also seems dishonest about Tree Ring chronology when considering the following quotes.

Rod A. Savidge Ph.D. says: "As a tree physiologist who has devoted his career to understanding how trees make wood, I have made sufficient observations on tree rings and cambial growth to know that dendrochronology is not at all an exact science. Indeed, its activities include subjective interpretations of what does and what does not constitute an annual ring, statistical manipulation of data to fulfill subjective expectations, and discarding of perfectly good data sets when they contradict other data sets that have already been accepted. Such massaging of data cannot by any stretch of the imagination be considered science; it merely demonstrates a total lack of rigor attending so-called dendrochronology "research". . . It would be a major step forward if dendrochronology could embrace the scientific method." New York Times, November of 2002

"In almost all branches of science, other than tree-ring studies, there is a check on the validity of published research: other researchers can, and often will, independently seek to replicate the research. For example, if a scientist does an experiment in a laboratory, comes to some interesting conclusion, and publishes this, then another scientist will replicate the experiment, in another laboratory, and if the conclusion is not the same, there will be some investigation. The result is (i) a scientist who publishes bogus research will be caught (at least if the research has importance and is not extremely expensive to replicate) and (ii) because all scientists know this, bogus science is rare. Tree-ring studies do not have this check, because the wood that forms the basis of a tree-ring study is irreplaceable: no other researchers can gather that wood.
Additionally, tree-ring investigators typically publish little more than conclusions. This is true everywhere, not just for Anatolia. Moreover, there is little competition among tree-ring investigators, in part”and this is crucial” because investigators in one region typically do not have access to data from other regions. The result is a system in which investigators can claim any plausible results and yet are accountable to no one." "The central conclusion is clear: Anatolian tree-ring studies are very untrustworthy and the problems with the work should be plain to anyone who has familiarity with the field. This is a serious matter. Consider that the work has been published in respected research journals and been ongoing for many years. How could this have happened?" Douglas J. Keenan, Anatolian tree-ring studies are untrustworthy, The Limehouse Cut, London E14 6N, United Kingdom; doug.keenan@informath.org, 16 March 2004 ( http://www.informath.org/ATSU04a....04a.pdf ) See also: Douglas Keenan, Why Radiocarbon Dates Downwind from the Mediterranean are too Early, Radiocarbon, Vol 44, Nr 1, 2002, p 225–237 ( http://www.informath.org/14C02a.....02a.pdf )


From the "Symposium Organized By International Atomic Energy Authority", H. E. Suess, UCLA, "...presented the latest determinations... as adduced from the current activity of dendrochronologically dated growth rings of the Californian bristle cone pine....The carbon14 concentration increases rather steadily during this time… These results confirm the change in carbon14 concentration.... and indicate that the concentration increases..."  (Science, Vol.157, p.726)

  
OgreMkV



Posts: 3668
Joined: Oct. 2009

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,22:20   

Lots of claims, still no actual... you know... evidence.

But that's what we expect.  So sad.

Just out of curiosity forastero, you do know that what we have observed over almost 13 billion light years indicates that there is no change in the weak nuclear force for the last 13 billion years.

But don't let those pesky little things like facts stop you.  Most people don't know that stuff anyway and might believe you if you talk fast enough and sciency enough.

You are making claims, you back them up.  If you can't, just admit and let's move on.  Oh, that's right, you never admit to anything.

What exactly exploded to cause the Big Bang?  Was it chemical, nuclear, sub-nuclear?

Since you can't seem to figure out when the flood was, dating is suspect after all, then just point us to the layer of rock that is post flood.  

You see, during a flood of that magnitude (something like 9,000,000,000,000* gallons of water per second for 40 days) would create a massive discontinuity in the geologic rock... one that would cover the entire world.  The post flood formation would also cover the entire world and it could not be any precipitate rock, volcanic rock, metamorphic rock, or biologically altered or modified rock (there being no post-flood biology).  So that pretty much leaves sandstones and siltstones.

Now, forastero, you have made a mistake.  There are 26 locations on the planet Earth that have a complete geologic column, that is from Precambrian rock in an unbroken (i.e. no discontinuities) to present day material.  So all you need to do is correlate the rock layers in those 26 locations and find the one that matches the flood.  That should almost be easy.

I'll be waiting for your results (I won't hold my breath though).

___
* This number is completely made up.  I've done the calculations before and really don't care to do them again right now.

--------------
Ignored by those who can't provide evidence for their claims.

http://skepticink.com/smilodo....retreat

   
forastero



Posts: 458
Joined: Oct. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,22:33   

Quote (Reciprocating Bill @ Nov. 11 2011,21:36)
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,22:00)
You are confusing our c14 ratio problem with the decay fluctuation discussion

You evaded answering the question when it was first posed in the context of decay rates. It is asked explicitly in those terms. Here is the question again:

Is it your assertion that:

1) environmental fluctuations can result in changes in radiometric decay rates of up to 0.5%?

2) these and similar errors, of similar magnitude, can "accumulate" to the point that you are justified in asserting objects (such as the earth) are estimated to be 227,000x older than they actually are (4,540,000,000/20,000 = 227,000)?

Rather like: Upon my discovery that when the speedometer of my car reads 70 miles per hour I am actually traveling 70.35 mph, I am justified in concluding that I may at times have moved down the interstate at over 15 million miles per hour.

Right?

Actually, I believe its probably often much more than .05% and the perhaps weekly decay fluctuations accumulate to totally alter any reasonable measurement beyond 5000 years  
Its proven though that Radiometric dating has much greater problems than fluctuating decay rates. For instance the dinosaur soft tissues. The calibrating errors and circular reasoning involved in calibration. Fluctuating production of radioisotopes. Contamination from various sources. Igneous rocks having unknown magma ratios of radioisotopes that can produce wide discrepancies in post crystallization ratios. Sedimentary rocks, which contain most fossils are even more prone to unknown mixing, contamination, and ratios.

  
OgreMkV



Posts: 3668
Joined: Oct. 2009

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,22:36   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,22:07)
And of coarse you did not reveal the link that you are accusing me of misquoting. Here it is http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs.......14.html

..and proving yall's chronic fear mongering propaganda

Moreover your article also seems dishonest about Tree Ring chronology when considering the following quotes.

Rod A. Savidge Ph.D. says: "As a tree physiologist who has devoted his career to understanding how trees make wood, I have made sufficient observations on tree rings and cambial growth to know that dendrochronology is not at all an exact science. Indeed, its activities include subjective interpretations of what does and what does not constitute an annual ring, statistical manipulation of data to fulfill subjective expectations, and discarding of perfectly good data sets when they contradict other data sets that have already been accepted. Such massaging of data cannot by any stretch of the imagination be considered science; it merely demonstrates a total lack of rigor attending so-called dendrochronology "research". . . It would be a major step forward if dendrochronology could embrace the scientific method." New York Times, November of 2002

"In almost all branches of science, other than tree-ring studies, there is a check on the validity of published research: other researchers can, and often will, independently seek to replicate the research. For example, if a scientist does an experiment in a laboratory, comes to some interesting conclusion, and publishes this, then another scientist will replicate the experiment, in another laboratory, and if the conclusion is not the same, there will be some investigation. The result is (i) a scientist who publishes bogus research will be caught (at least if the research has importance and is not extremely expensive to replicate) and (ii) because all scientists know this, bogus science is rare. Tree-ring studies do not have this check, because the wood that forms the basis of a tree-ring study is irreplaceable: no other researchers can gather that wood.
Additionally, tree-ring investigators typically publish little more than conclusions. This is true everywhere, not just for Anatolia. Moreover, there is little competition among tree-ring investigators, in part”and this is crucial” because investigators in one region typically do not have access to data from other regions. The result is a system in which investigators can claim any plausible results and yet are accountable to no one." "The central conclusion is clear: Anatolian tree-ring studies are very untrustworthy and the problems with the work should be plain to anyone who has familiarity with the field. This is a serious matter. Consider that the work has been published in respected research journals and been ongoing for many years. How could this have happened?" Douglas J. Keenan, Anatolian tree-ring studies are untrustworthy, The Limehouse Cut, London E14 6N, United Kingdom; doug.keenan@informath.org, 16 March 2004 ( http://www.informath.org/ATSU04a....04a.pdf ) See also: Douglas Keenan, Why Radiocarbon Dates Downwind from the Mediterranean are too Early, Radiocarbon, Vol 44, Nr 1, 2002, p 225–237 ( http://www.informath.org/14C02a.....02a.pdf )


From the "Symposium Organized By International Atomic Energy Authority", H. E. Suess, UCLA, "...presented the latest determinations... as adduced from the current activity of dendrochronologically dated growth rings of the Californian bristle cone pine....The carbon14 concentration increases rather steadily during this time… These results confirm the change in carbon14 concentration.... and indicate that the concentration increases..."  (Science, Vol.157, p.726)

Sorry dude, Keenan is a hack.  He's a former FINANCIAL TRADER.

I'm sure that gives him complete insight into such things as Global warming, Ancient Chinese Astronomy, radiocarbon dating, and US copyright law.

I've found several rebuttals to his other work, however, the tree-ring report you link to has not been peer-reviewed since the manuscript was created (dated 2006).  I'm guessing that, considering his other faulty work was peer-reviewed and published that this one won't be because it is simply wrong.

PEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH... not the opinions of a financial adviser.

Thanks

--------------
Ignored by those who can't provide evidence for their claims.

http://skepticink.com/smilodo....retreat

   
OgreMkV



Posts: 3668
Joined: Oct. 2009

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,22:44   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,22:33)
Actually, I believe its probably often much more than .05% and the perhaps weekly decay fluctuations accumulate to totally alter any reasonable measurement beyond 5000 years  
Its proven though that Radiometric dating has much greater problems than fluctuating decay rates. For instance the dinosaur soft tissues. The calibrating errors and circular reasoning involved in calibration. Fluctuating production of radioisotopes. Contamination from various sources. Igneous rocks having unknown magma ratios of radioisotopes that can produce wide discrepancies in post crystallization ratios. Sedimentary rocks, which contain most fossils are even more prone to unknown mixing, contamination, and ratios.

OK, let's see.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 errors.  Anyone find anymore (admittedly, I use 'beliefs without evidence' as a scientific error.)

Dude, have you ever read anything about radiometric dating that isn't from creationist tracts?

--------------
Ignored by those who can't provide evidence for their claims.

http://skepticink.com/smilodo....retreat

   
Reciprocating Bill



Posts: 4265
Joined: Oct. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 11 2011,22:53   

Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,23:33)
Actually, I believe its probably often much more than .05% and the perhaps weekly decay fluctuations accumulate to totally alter any reasonable measurement beyond 5000 years  

That is not responsive to my question. I'll repeat it.

Is it your belief that sources of error such as the alleged 0.5% radiometric fluctuations (and all other alleged similar errors) are of sufficient magnitude to result in estimated ages, such as the age of the earth, that are 227,000x the actual values?

For reference, a 0.5% error in my speedometer would result in a reading of 70 mph when I was actually traveling at 70.35 mph, while you are alleging errors of magnitude such that when my indicated speed is 70 mph I may in fact be traveling over 2% of the speed of light.

Is that your belief?

--------------
Myth: Something that never was true, and always will be.

"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you."
- David Foster Wallace

"Here’s a clue. Snarky banalities are not a substitute for saying something intelligent. Write that down."
- Barry Arrington

  
forastero



Posts: 458
Joined: Oct. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 12 2011,00:56   

Quote (OgreMkV @ Nov. 11 2011,22:36)
Quote (forastero @ Nov. 11 2011,22:07)
And of coarse you did not reveal the link that you are accusing me of misquoting. Here it is http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs.......14.html

..and proving yall's chronic fear mongering propaganda

Moreover your article also seems dishonest about Tree Ring chronology when considering the following quotes.

Rod A. Savidge Ph.D. says: "As a tree physiologist who has devoted his career to understanding how trees make wood, I have made sufficient observations on tree rings and cambial growth to know that dendrochronology is not at all an exact science. Indeed, its activities include subjective interpretations of what does and what does not constitute an annual ring, statistical manipulation of data to fulfill subjective expectations, and discarding of perfectly good data sets when they contradict other data sets that have already been accepted. Such massaging of data cannot by any stretch of the imagination be considered science; it merely demonstrates a total lack of rigor attending so-called dendrochronology "research". . . It would be a major step forward if dendrochronology could embrace the scientific method." New York Times, November of 2002

"In almost all branches of science, other than tree-ring studies, there is a check on the validity of published research: other researchers can, and often will, independently seek to replicate the research. For example, if a scientist does an experiment in a laboratory, comes to some interesting conclusion, and publishes this, then another scientist will replicate the experiment, in another laboratory, and if the conclusion is not the same, there will be some investigation. The result is (i) a scientist who publishes bogus research will be caught (at least if the research has importance and is not extremely expensive to replicate) and (ii) because all scientists know this, bogus science is rare. Tree-ring studies do not have this check, because the wood that forms the basis of a tree-ring study is irreplaceable: no other researchers can gather that wood.
Additionally, tree-ring investigators typically publish little more than conclusions. This is true everywhere, not just for Anatolia. Moreover, there is little competition among tree-ring investigators, in part”and this is crucial” because investigators in one region typically do not have access to data from other regions. The result is a system in which investigators can claim any plausible results and yet are accountable to no one." "The central conclusion is clear: Anatolian tree-ring studies are very untrustworthy and the problems with the work should be plain to anyone who has familiarity with the field. This is a serious matter. Consider that the work has been published in respected research journals and been ongoing for many years. How could this have happened?" Douglas J. Keenan, Anatolian tree-ring studies are untrustworthy, The Limehouse Cut, London E14 6N, United Kingdom; doug.keenan@informath.org, 16 March 2004 ( http://www.informath.org/ATSU04a....04a.pdf ) See also: Douglas Keenan, Why Radiocarbon Dates Downwind from the Mediterranean are too Early, Radiocarbon, Vol 44, Nr 1, 2002, p 225–237 ( http://www.informath.org/14C02a.....02a.pdf )


From the "Symposium Organized By International Atomic Energy Authority", H. E. Suess, UCLA, "...presented the latest determinations... as adduced from the current activity of dendrochronologically dated growth rings of the Californian bristle cone pine....The carbon14 concentration increases rather steadily during this time… These results confirm the change in carbon14 concentration.... and indicate that the concentration increases..."  (Science, Vol.157, p.726)

Sorry dude, Keenan is a hack.  He's a former FINANCIAL TRADER.

I'm sure that gives him complete insight into such things as Global warming, Ancient Chinese Astronomy, radiocarbon dating, and US copyright law.

I've found several rebuttals to his other work, however, the tree-ring report you link to has not been peer-reviewed since the manuscript was created (dated 2006).  I'm guessing that, considering his other faulty work was peer-reviewed and published that this one won't be because it is simply wrong.

PEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH... not the opinions of a financial adviser.

Thanks

If he is good enough University of Arizona’s Radiocarbon and the following peer reviewed publications then he’s definitely good enough for here

"The fraud allegation against some climatic research of Wei-Chyung Wang", Energy & Environment, 18: 985–995 (2007).

"Defence of planetary conjunctions for early Chinese chronology is unmerited", Journal of Astronomical History and Heritage, 10: 142–147 (2007).
 
"Radiocarbon dates from Iron Age Gordion are confounded", Ancient West & East, 3: 100–103 (2004).

"Volcanic ash retrieved from the GRIP ice core is not from Thera", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 4 (2003).

"Why early-historical radiocarbon dates downwind from the Mediterranean are too early", Radiocarbon, 44: 225–237 (2002).  

"Astro-historiographic chronologies of early China are unfounded", East Asian History, 23: 61–68 (2002).

Btw, Radiocarbon is the main international journal of record for research articles and date lists relevant to 14C and other radioisotopes and techniques used in archaeological, geophysical, oceanographic, and related dating. The journal is published quarterly. We also publish conference proceedings and monographs on topics related to our fields of interest. http://digitalcommons.library.arizona.edu/holding....?r=http

  
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