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  Topic: Avocationist, taking some advice...seperate thread< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  
jeannot



Posts: 1201
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,08:46   

Quote (avocationist @ Feb. 19 2006,14:10)
Jeannot,

I see your point. But what are we to do if evidence does point to design.
...
If design = supernatural, and supernatural= nonscientific then we have a problem if evidence points toward design.

As far as we know, nothing in biology points to design. The DI has yet to provide some results that prove irreducible complexity.

If we find evidence for design, the first thing to do is to search for the designer.

Design != supernatural, however design = intelligence.

  
PuckSR



Posts: 314
Joined: Nov. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,08:58   

Quote
We could find strange objects and know they were designed


Really???

Give me an example of an object that you could determine was designed without being familiar with the object.

Let me explain....flint arrow heads are designed...we know they are designed because we know we used to make flint arrowheads.

Give me an example of an object that you know is designed without having familiarity with the object.

  
PuckSR



Posts: 314
Joined: Nov. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,09:32   

Quote
I'm finding your reaction to the bridge hand question pretty unsupportable, way over the top.

We did not miss the point. Dawkins made a simple statement  of chance and probability that was false, and he made it precisely to illustrate the point that it failed to illustrate. It illustrated indeed the opposite. His example if anything strengthens the argument he was trying to refute. Since the calculation is not one of very advanced math, and since Dawkins should certainly have spent a fair amount of time pondering exactly what chance can and cannot do, I find it pretty odd.


Alright....lets begin by assuming that both Russel and Dawkins assumed that Spetner meant a "perfect hand" of bridge and not a "perfect deal".

You are indeed correct Avo, Spetner did get his calculations somewhat correct.....You would not normally use probability in this way.  Your very old individual would have 1: 4 x 10^28 odds of getting a perfect deal every time.  He might get his perfect deal on the first deal...even though the odds are very much against it.  He would, however, have the exact same odds of getting a "perfect deal" on the second hand, and on the third.  His odds would not diminish or increase with repetition.  If you believe diminishing odds with repetition then you are committing what is commonly known as the "gambler's fallacy".

Russel and Dawkins however took Spetner literally to refer to a "perfect hand" of bridge....and a hand only refers to the cards dealt to one player.  You should, at least, forgive them for this misunderstanding.

The point, however, is still perfectly valid.  If the probability exists that something could occur and it is given a very large number of trials, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that it could happen.

Avo, a royal flush in poker is very rare in a 5 card stud game.  If, however, you are dealt a perfect flush....no one would suggest that the odds make such a hand impossible.  Yes, you were very lucky, but the mere fact that it is improbable does not mean that is does not occur.

This is the point of the entire "perfect bridge hand disccusion".  Spetner is trying to suggest that while a chance exists for such an occurence, that the high improbability makes it impossible.  Dawkins is trying to demonstrate that if the possibility exists....then you must accept that it could potentially occur.

  
Henry J



Posts: 5786
Joined: Mar. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,13:22   

Not to mention that any specified hand is just as unlikely as any other - but every deal manages to produce some of them anyway, in spite of the fact that any given one of them is unlikely in the extreme.

Henry

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,13:39   

Quote
Alright....lets begin by assuming that both Russel and Dawkins assumed that Spetner meant a "perfect hand" of bridge and not a "perfect deal".
Since Spetner was criticizing what Dawkins had written, I don't think it was incumbent upon Dawkins to parse Spetner's future words! Rather, it's Spetner's duty to fairly represent what he's criticizing: what Dawkins wrote. And Dawkins wrote "hand", not "deal".
Quote
Russel and Dawkins however took Spetner literally to refer to a "perfect hand" of bridge....and a hand only refers to the cards dealt to one player.  You should, at least, forgive them for this misunderstanding.
Misunderstanding? What misunderstanding?  What does a "hand" in a card game mean? Why should I not take it literally? As I said, I don't play bridge -which is why I had to ask what constitutes a  "perfect hand". But in every card game I'm familiar with, a "hand" is what a player holds. Is that not true in bridge? The total distribution of the whole deck would be called a "deal". Am I wrong? Dawkins specifically referred to "hand", not "deal". (Blind Watchmaker, page 162). If there's any "misinterpretation" it's Spetner's and Avo's.
Quote
We did not miss the point. Dawkins made a simple statement  of chance and probability that was false.
OK. Quote me the exact words that Dawkins wrote that were false.
Quote
You are indeed correct Avo, Spetner did get his calculations somewhat correct.....You would not normally use probability in this way.  Your very old individual would have 1: 4 x 10^28 odds of getting a perfect deal every* time.
(emphasis mine, and *I think PuckSR meant "each" time, not "every" time.)
But aside from that, show me how you get that number - even for a perfect deal. Dawkins himself worked out the odds for a perfect deal in a passage separate from the long-lived alien scenario. (He whimsically suggests calling the number he gets a "dealion" - not, incidentally, a "handion").  I confirmed his calculation, using exactly the logic I showed you earlier for a perfect hand. I don't have the  number here, but it was about 1:2.3 x 10^27. So I'm not even sure Spetner got the deal number right. If you read what Dawkins actually wrote, though, not what Avo said that Spetner said that he wrote, I see no reason to suspect that he meant "deal" when he specifically wrote "hand".

Quote
I cannot understand your calling it a ridiculous technicality. Dawkins gave the scenario and it doesn't work. ... but to actually calculate the probability is a ridiculous technicality?
Again, you'll have to show me how Dawkins's scenario "doesn't work". But leaving that aside for the moment, what we have here is a very clear example of avo either:

(1) having reading comprehension problems
(2) being dishonest, or
(3) being "not exactly a straight-talking guy".

(My money's on #3)

How can you possibly construe anything I wrote to mean that I considered the performance of the calculation a "ridiculous technicality"? Is there any confusion at all in what I wrote that I was referring to the substitution of the word "deal" for the word "hand"? That's the ridiculous technicality, and - frankly - I think it's pretty generous to call it a that, because it seems to me that confusing the two is pretty self-servingly far-fetched.

So, as it happens, I don't see any problem with Dawkins's scenario, but even if there were one the point remains stunningly simple and clear: the probability of something "unlikely" occurring is dramatically affected by how much time is available.
Quote
Dawkins is trying to demonstrate that if the possibility exists....then you must accept that it could potentially occur.
ummm... should I not?

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Russell



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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,13:50   

I have to say, I am enjoying Avo's continued mouth-to-mouth heroics on this dead horse! It's such a stark case of defending the indefensible.

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PuckSR



Posts: 314
Joined: Nov. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,14:46   

MY bad....i thought Dawkins was criticizing Spetner...

That should explain most of my post

Of course, Spetner could have made the odds even worse....if he had specified that the hands were dealt in order, or that the suits had to proceed in a certain order.

The funny thing Avo, is that in this case we all know what cards we have and what hands we are trying to achieve.  You cannot provide either of those details when trying to calculate the complexity of life.  I suppose you could specify the current state of all life, but why deny alternate paths?  That would be like artificially increasing your odds by requiring that the hands are dealt in numerical order.

  
Russell



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Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,15:52   

Quote
Dawkins is trying to demonstrate that if the possibility exists....then you must accept that it could potentially occur.
Oops. I accidentally ascribed that to Avo, and thought he was implying otherwise. In fact it was PuckSR, stating the obvious.

Quote
(Avo: ) I don't see a 3rd possibility to the two I mentioned.
i.e. incompetence or dishonesty. OK. Now that I hope it's clear that the gaffe was Spetner's, not Dawkins's:  what's your verdict?

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Russell



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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,18:07   

Hmmm. Now that I'm home, and have my numbers in front of me, I see that I do differ from Dawkins in my calculation of the odds of the perfect deal. (I continue to stand by my calculation, above, for the perfect hand.)

Dawkins calculates the odds of the perfect deal are 1:2,235,197,406,895,366,368,301,559,999 while I get 1:2,235,197,406,895,366,368,301,560,000.

The logic being: the first card has a 52/52 chance of being a suit, the second has a 39/51 chance of being a different suit, the third a 26/50 chance of being yet another, and the fourth a 13/49 chance of being different from the previous 3. From then on, the next 4 cards have a 12/48, 12/47, 12/46, and 12/45 chance of matching each players original suit, then 11/44, 11/43, 11/42, 11/40, and so on down to the last card. So the odds are 1:52!/(52x39x26x13x(12! )^4) = 1:2,235,197,406,895,366,368,301,560,000

Why, exactly, Dawkins subtracted 1 from that number, I don't know. But I'm willing to dismiss it as inconsequential. (I'm generous that way.)

What was Spetner's result? (For the perfect deal, that is; we've already established he didn't calculate the odds for the perfect hand, as was specified in the "long-lived alien" scenario.)

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Henry J



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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,18:55   

Russell,
Re "Dawkins calculates the odds of the perfect deal are [...] "

Those values appear to agree to about 24 digits, or about 80 significant bits. Wonder if that's the limit of precision on either his or your computer (or both)?

Henry

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,20:04   

Quote
Why, exactly, Dawkins subtracted 1 from that number, I don't know.
D'oh! Of course. A "1 in 10 chance" is the same thing as "odds of 1:9". Turns out Dawkins & I agree right down to the last unit. So what's Spetner's number?

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Russell



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Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 20 2006,05:32   

Hey, this is intriguing. Getting impatient for Avo's explication of Spetner's gaffe, I did a little googling and came across this:, posted by someone using the nom de 'nette "onething"
Quote
Tika mentions personal incredulity. This one of Dawkins favorite mocking points. And Darwinists in general constantly assure us that we have a problem understanding big numbers. Discussing the probability of life originating, Dawkins said we should drop our intuitive feeling for chance. He said we should imagine a hypothetical long-lived alien of millions of years. This alien might from time to time see a perfect hand of bridge. It would be nothing to write home about. Yet he never bothered to do the calculation, which turns out to be 4.47 X 10 -28., according to Spetner, Not By Chance.

And he says it is an easy, straightforward calculation. So, playing 100 hands of bridge per day for 100 million years, said alien has a chance of one in a quadrillion of seeing a perfect hand of bridge in his lifetime.

This has been bothering my mind for months now. Dawkins didn’t make the calculation, and it is one that an advanced high-schooler could probably make. He wasn’t caught off guard, speaking off the cuff. It was in his book.

I keep asking myself, is Dawkins dishonest, or can it be he actually believed what he wrote? Because if he did, it means that he has no feeling for chance or probability, and this is truly worrisome. Dawkins, after all, is both Britain’s leading intellectual, and the Grand Wizard of the Public Understanding of Science, and he is a professor at a famous university, and he writes books defending evolution.

I would have to assume that a person with a Ph.D in any science field would have some education in math and be able to do probability calculations. Probability difficulties are one of the greatest detractions from evolution theory. And he throws out comments like that about a bridge playing alien, but doesn’t bother to actually calculate and see if he is right.

And people like me are told that we have no feeling for the great periods of time that evolution calls for, and that we should be ashamed of making arguments about personal incredulity (although it is alright for them to be incredulous about any divine being). But if Dawkins had an adequate feeling about probability, he would know when to check his calculations.

He did not check, which means he is operating in a fantastical mode of thinking. He has no feel for it. Since Darwinism relies on the miraculous, they must have miraculous entities, albeit those entities cannot be living or intelligent. Time and chance are the deities, as others have noted. No wonder they find incredulity offensive, it is unseemly to question a deity.

I believe in God, but not in miracles.
So, either Avo & onething are one person, spreading the same uninformed blather over the net, or they're both part of an anti-evo network promulgating talking points without bothering to reword or investigate, or - most bizarrely - without bothering to check the very calculations they point out are so elementary!

Care to shed some light on this, Avo?

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avocationist



Posts: 173
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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 21 2006,07:53   

I am the same person. I wrote that not so long ago, shortly after reading about it.

It appears from my own reading on the net, in which I found a similar conversation to ours, that Dawkins on about two pages (160 and 161if I remember) mentioned both a perfect hand and a perfect deal. It is unclear then, what he meant. I don't have Dawkins book myself. So I would say that Spetner took it to mean a perfect deal. was Dawkins discussing two different points using an almost identical analogy?

Anyway, I now have the answer to a question I was asked at least a week ago - why was I unsatisfed with Miller's answer to the IC of the flagellum. It's about 2-3 pages so I hope that is OK.

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 21 2006,08:38   

Quote
It appears from my own reading on the net that Dawkins ... mentioned both a perfect hand and a perfect deal. It is unclear then, what he meant. I don't have Dawkins book myself. So I would say that Spetner took it to mean a perfect deal. was Dawkins discussing two different points using an almost identical analogy?
OK. I'm starting to feel some pity now, so I don't mean to be too harsh here. Please read this in that spirit.

You have claimed, in multiple places, that Dawkins must be either incompetent or dishonest. You also claimed, in multiple places, that Dawkins never did the calculation. But I just quoted you the number he got (the odds of a perfect deal),  repeated the calculation, and got the same number. You admit now that you've never actually read what he wrote, but repeat, in high indignation, how he never bothered to do the calculation, and that this demonstrates his incompetence and/or dishonesty!

Do you see how some not necessarily malevolent people might detect a deviation from rigorous objectivity there?

Should we ascribe that lack of objectivity to you, or to Spetner, or to both?

Yes, I can see how it might be "unclear what he meant" - if your only source of information is his creationist critic. But when I actually read the actual book, it didn't strike me as unclear at all.

No, Dawkins was not using an almost identical analogy to make two unrelated points. He was using the game of bridge as a "theme" illustrating some not very controversial observations on the relationship between rare events and human expectations. If Spetner overlooked the fact that, on one page, he used the words "perfect deal" AND reported the odds against it, then on another page, after introducing the long-lived alien, used the words "perfect hand", then Spetner either consciously or unconsciously made a mistake. And published it in a book. And - so far as I know - never bothered to correct fresh-faced disciples such as yourself when they made themselves look foolish by publicly quoting him.

So - though I'm not sure I agree with you that these kinds of errors can be chalked up with absolute certainty to either incompetence or dishonesty - I accept that that is your view, and I ask you: what's your verdict on Spetner?

I strongly urge you, next time you're ready to play loyal footsoldier in the culture wars, to check out the actual words of the character you're assassinating. And to excercise a modicum of skepticism about the motives of the "officers".

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avocationist



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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 21 2006,08:58   

This is a sort of run-on commentary:
Miller – The Flagellum Unspun
*Uses personal incredulity argument. Calls it sentiment. One demerit.
*Elevates imagination. Says that when a person cannot imagine something, it is a personal statement about their limitations. So lack of imagination is a personal failing. I’m going to agree that imagination can be important – for example Einstein’s theories of relativity – but imagination needs to lead to hard evidence. And there is more than one kind of imagination. Yes, imagination is a wonderful thing, but why does this branch of science seem so dependent upon it?

*States that the ID designer must act outside the laws of nature.  This is not necessarily true and in fact I consider such notions absurd. Yet Miller’s God does do so occasionally.
*Miller states the flagellum is not IC because the Type III secretory system, which exists in other bacteria, contains similar proteins to those found in the base of the flagellum, and was probably co-opted to form the flagellum.
This really is the sum of his argument right here. The flagellum has 30-40 proteins, of which 10 are homologous with the type III system. (Unfortunately, that argument is now obsolete, being largely abandoned in favor of the idea that the Type III system is actually devolved from the flagellum instead. Mike Gene’s reasons why the Type III is not a precursor was removed for brevity but is available) However, the real problem with Miller’s argument is that he thought the Type III system was ever much of a refutation in the first place.

*Next, Miller states evolution is opportunistic and able to mix and match proteins. This is something I don’t understand and I invite enlightenment. My question basically revolves around: how does the information get into the genome to code at the right time and place for some sort of widget that is in use elsewhere. As Behe shows, in the cell everything is tightly controlled. Things aren’t out of place and hanging out looking for work. Just because various pieces are lying around in the garage, to make a functional system out of them requires insight, especially if 3 or more are to be put together at once. But even if we add only one new piece to an existing structure, how does this occur? Sure, the piece itself is available, and somewhere in the genome is the code to create it, but that still leaves the question of rearranging it to a new place. And it must fit exactly or be modified to do so. From Dembski’s response, quoting Bracht, “Old interfaces and binding sites must be removed and new ones must be created.”

*Then he says that because the Type 3 exists, and since that involved use of 10 proteins, and since it is itself functional, this disproves Behe’s contention that no parts of the flagellum can be removed without loss of function. Say what? Is he mixing up arguments here? The type 3 system is functional as a type 3 system and is also similar to the base of the flagellum, but if you remove that base, the flagellum is indeed nonfunctional. But Miller argues that if you remove a component – the Type 3 – and since it has a function of its own (which is arguably not true since the two are only homologous) that this disproves the IC of the flagellum.  

I.e., the existence of the Type 3 disproves that the flagellum must be fully assembled before any part can be functional. To me, this completely misses the point and is a hollow victory. If this is important to Behe’s thesis, I am unaware of it. The main point of IC is that the parts all are necessary to the flagellum.
He thinks he has accounted for a subset of the flagellum (the type 3 unit) but that tells us exactly nothing about how the entire flagellar system got together with its 30-40 proteins. So Miller has 10 accounted for and that apparently works for him.
*He says for one IC system to contain another is contra the IC argument. He says if the flagellum contains smaller functional units it is by definition not IC.
It seems to me that it doesn’t matter, although IC is meant to meet Darwin’s challenge that if a system could be found which could not be built upon “numerous, slight, successive” modifications then Darwinism is refuted. However, I see no reason why one of those slight modifications couldn’t be a functional set from another system. And if it can’t, this is not against ID, but against Darwinism.
So right here we have 3 problems:
1.The Type 3 system probably is not a prior component that got co-opted.
2.Even if it was, Miller makes not even an effort to account for the other 20 or more proteins, and does not worry about it, apparently being satisfied with a semantic victory.
3.It certainly doesn’t strengthen Darwin’s argument for slight and successive modifications to insist that IC systems can have been cobbled together from units that originally served other purposes. In any case, it is improbable for them to get together whether by direct or indirect routes.

Behe and Dembski both argue that it is unlikely for evolution to cobble together an IC system, whether each protein component is added one by one, or if some additions consist of an entire group of proteins which are co-opted, such as the Type 3 system.

Of course, since we have no picture at all of the history of the flagellum, we cannot really know what sort of steps might have led to it, and whether it started out with its first components doing something else entirely, and at what point in the step-by-step process motility became the function. Were there 30 steps? 12? Did it become a motility device after 5 reincarnations? 10? The final step only?

If it was a step by step process toward motility, as per fish eyes paper ideal, and if at one point the Type 3 was taken in as a whole, I see no problem with that. On the other hand, if there were, say, 10 steps, and in each step a novel use was made by adding a widget and each time the growing-toward-flagellum had a completely different function until finally it became a flagellum – well! Wouldn’t that be something. And what I want to know is if a part gets co-opted, does that part also continue to function in the old way? I mean, it would still be needed for whatever it used to do right? So does production of that widget get doubled in the genome and built at two different places?

*Next, Miller states that Dembski has exaggerated the difficulties of the components coming together by dividing the process up into origination, localization (getting them together in the cell) and configuration (assembly). He points out that once you have a protein sequence, it self-assembles. There is some truth to this, but the problems of matching interfaces and incorporating the co-options into the blueprints are real. I am not sure if all proteins self-assemble, but at any rate the putting together of some systems require much chaperoning, and the assembly of the flagellum is one such. According to Mike Gene (and I'll look this up if anyone is intersted) the assembly of the flagellum may itself be an IC process.  

*Now, Miller states that Dembski’s probability calculations regarding the likelihood of 30 or more proteins spontaneiously assembling themselves is too low because no one really thinks a flagellum has to be gotten together that way. He says that Dembski has ignored that the type 3 system contains nearly one third of the needed proteins.

It is surprising, however, that Miller finds this to be of more than small help. And keep in mind that the Type 3 system is now largely abandoned as a hopeful precursor. He has no other argument for how the entire thing would get together other than to say that Demski has followed a faulty reasoning by assuming that he can analyze the likelihood of the flagellum assembling itself since he has not taken into account that there might be unthought-of ways for it to do so. Actually, Dembski does acknowledge that very thing, but certainly this is an argument from ignorance! Also, it is an appeal for patience.

Miller is saying that although we indeed have absolutely no idea how it could get together, we should still assume that it could do so somehow, because if we are skeptical of that, then we are operating from a priori assumptions (that it can't). This argument, to me, goes both ways. It is great to keep in mind how surprising new knowledge can be, but at the same time, it is an appeal not to use the tols we now have to make coherent sense of the world. It is to say we really have no tools to evaluate how nature works, how natural law works, how chance and probability work, how intelligence interacts with reality.

*Next he mentions the complex Krebs cycle, which apparently is made up of proteins that also exist elsewhere in the cell. He quotes a paper which states it is a clear case of opportunism. In fact, in support of opportunism he quotes someone named Jacob as saying that evolution does not produce novelties from scratch but works with what already exists. Now here we have a problem. For somewhere, sometime, novelty must occur. And we really don’t know how it does. And Jacob also assures us that the Krebs cycle is the best chemically possible design.

*Miller now cites Dolittle’s refutation of the blood clotting cascade, but I have read the response to it and I am convinced that Dolittle has done little.

The take home lesson here is that there is way too much that we don't know about how life really works.

  
avocationist



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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 21 2006,09:02   

Did Dawkins give the calculations for the perfect deal? What was it?

If what you say is true, I think Spetner misunderstood him.

I never indicated I had read it. I gave an accurate description of what Spetner wrote.

  
C.J.O'Brien



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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 21 2006,09:33   

Quote
The take home lesson here is that there is way too much that we don't know about how life really works.

Both sides can agree on that much. It's the corollary to the general rule on which we are divided.

To wit: The IDer takes this as an assertion of the failings of the Darwinian paradigm: an admission of ignorance! The smell of blood in the water!

The corollary for ID is that our ignorance is total and irremediable. A call for the non-explanation that is IDCreationism. Goddidit.

The corollary for the evolutionist is that there is more to learn. Having identified the TTSS as a possible precursor is all that need be done to put the supposed example of  an IC system to bed. Because the IC argument demands that there be no such identifiable possible precursor. It's the logic of this argument that leads to Behe's goalpost shifting around the whole issue of the flagellum.

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--Joe G

  
Russell



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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 21 2006,09:47   

Quote
Did Dawkins give the calculations for the perfect deal? What was it?
I told you he gave the result.  I quoted it, to 27 decimal places of accuracy: 1:2,235,197,406,895,366,368,301,559,999. I showed you how I calculated it. Dawkins only reported the number (the details of the calculation were not relevant, and indeed would have been distracting to the point he was making). But, since he got the same number I did - to 27 decimal places of accuracy - I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate that, yes, he actually did the calculation, rather than making a lucky guess. I believe you'll find that Spetner's number is just the reciprocal of it. (Odds against X = 1/(probability of X) ).

So, according to your view of things, if Spetner "misunderstood", he must be either incompetent or dishonest. Which is it?
Quote
I never indicated I had read it. I gave an accurate description of what Spetner wrote.
And, as I hope you realize by now, that wasn't good enough.

Your dissection of the flagellum discussion looks as if you have approached it with the same degree of open-mindedness with which you approached the bridge game statistics. So I'm going to take a pass, for now, on trying to correct your errors, hoping that either someone else will take a turn at it, or that I will be busy enough with more productive enterprises that your failure to understand takes its rightful place as the least of my problems.

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PuckSR



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(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 21 2006,11:41   

Avo-

You completely missed the point of both Behe, Dembski, and Miller.
I dont believe that an incredibly long and detailed post would be very fruitful, so I will simply provide a summarized post.

1)Of course all components of a system are necessary for that system to be that system.  The classic example:  A mousetrap.  The argument from the ID crowd is that the parts of a mousetrap are non-functional.  The argument from the 'Evolutionist' crowd is that they are functional.  No one claims that a mouse trap sans spring is still a mousetrap.  They are arguing that a mousetrap sans spring is either useless or useful.

2)  The true chronological order of development is unimportant for almost everything.(unless your DaveScot).  A car is based on several simple principles....Boyle's Law, the concept of the wheel, simple machines(gears)...etc.  No one actually needs to explain the chronological development of all of the technology of the car to assume that it 'evolved' from these other concepts.  You might claim that the concept of the wheel predated the concept of pressure systems.  Further anthropological evidence might discover that the concept of steam energy predated the wheel.  It really isnt important to the concept of automotive evolution.

3)  You were incredibly insulting regarding the entire Spetner Vs. Dawkins argument.  You should apologize profusely, you were clearly misinformed....

4) Russel has already tried to explain, but I am afraid you might have missed the point.  You seem incredibly concerned that the Theory of Evolution provide detailed information regarding the evolution of organisms.  You seem to ignore the fact that ID cannot provide any of this information either.  ID proponents cannot even agree on how organisms came to be in existence.  The Theory of Gravity does not explain why masses are attracted to each other.  It simply explains that they are attracted and  describes the attraction.  I keep mentioning the theory of gravity because it draws so many parallels with evolution.

We do not know why gravity works
We have only observed gravity on a small scale
We base almost all of our understanding on empirical evidence
They are both used to refute theistic ideas

Avo, if you have any problems with any of my points, please refer back to the number, and I will provide a far more detailed explanation.

  
Renier



Posts: 276
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 22 2006,01:03   

I think you guys are waisting your time with Avo. "Nobody is as deaf as those who do not want to hear". He is not here to listen... nothing you say has any weight with him.

  
GCT



Posts: 1001
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 22 2006,02:28   

Quote (avocationist @ Feb. 16 2006,18:25)
Perhaps you ought to start looking for it. I am going to try to some extent, but I can't bring everybody up to speed.

Ha ha ha, if you can present evidence FOR ID, then you would be the first.  I'll be willing to put your name in for any science award you want if you can present any actual evidence for ID.
Quote
Oh my, your objectivity is showing.

And your subjectivity is showing.  When Dembski makes statements about how science must be consonant with Christ, then he has left the boundaries of science.
Quote
Paleontoogy is not considered Darwinism's strong suit, the field of geology would exist no matter what set of facts it turned up, and medicine is debatable.

Except that paleontology and geology both independently verify evolution.  So, by denying evolution, you are saying that the independent verification of those sciences are also in error.
Quote
It [evidence for evolution] looks like projection to me...

Only because you have a priori commitments to your god.
Quote
Oh, it was kindly meant. I wasnt singling them out in particular. It is human nature. There are two motives. One is ego: the desire to be right. And the second is what I mentioned above, the desire to quell the inner void, to convince oneself that one knows anything at all.

Which is why evidence is required.  The fact that you and your side can produce none vs. the fact that evolution has over a hundred years of accumulated evidence and peer-reviewed journal articles is a telling point here.  Do you think that one person's ego (or even a group of people) is what makes our genetic makeup so similar to that of apes?

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 22 2006,04:42   

Quote
I think you guys are waisting your time with Avo. "Nobody is as deaf as those who do not want to hear". He is not here to listen... nothing you say has any weight with him.
You're probably right. (By the way, I think Avo is actually "she", not "he").

I guess I assume at least some educability on the part of any refugee from UD, and accord some respect to anyone abused by DaveScot. But I admit that's more sentiment than rationality.

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Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
PuckSR



Posts: 314
Joined: Nov. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 22 2006,06:55   

Quote
I think you guys are waisting your time with Avo. "Nobody is as deaf as those who do not want to hear". He is not here to listen... nothing you say has any weight with him.


Actually, I think your wrong.  I am not trying to sway Avo's opinion on the matter.  I simply believe that it is my civic duty to attempt to inform Avo of the facts.

I have absolutely no problem with Avo continuing to believe whatever (s)he wishes.  I only hope that in the future Avo avoids false information.

After our conversation with him, I would hope that Avo never again tries to use the example of the bridge hand to call Dawkins dishonest.

I hope he fully understands the concept of IC, and the refutations of it.

I also hope in the future he avoids making arguments and accusations from rather weak source material.

Remember when you were a young person, and you attempted to discuss something with an adult.  We almost all made ridiculous statements, and were exhaustively educated on the inappropriateness of our style and tactics.  I dont really want to change Avo's opinion.  I simply want to raise the level of debate to something that resembles honest and intelligent discourse.

  
avocationist



Posts: 173
Joined: Feb. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 22 2006,19:03   

CJ,
Quote
. Having identified the TTSS as a possible precursor is all that need be done to put the supposed example of  an IC system to bed. Because the IC argument demands that there be no such identifiable possible precursor. It's the logic of this argument that leads to Behe's goalpost shifting around the whole issue of the flagellum.
As your response and the rest here indicate, I wasted my time. This is actually beyond astonishing. I am at a mad tea party here. Behe has not moved the goalposts - he has no need to. No one can account even in a plausible way for how a system like the flagellum can have evolved. I mean, did you even read what I wrote? In what way does coming up with 10 out of 40 proteins help? In what way does it put the sytem to bed if the Type 3 system devolved from the flagellum?

Russell,

I checked my library and unfortunately, they don't have the book. But I can probably go to the bookstore and have a look. If Spetner screwed up as you say he did, then I will write to him as I said I would.

Oh, you asked so hard for reasons why I am an IDer, but now you haven't the time.

Puck,

I failed to see how any of your points had anything to do with anything that I wrote about the flagellum papers.

GCT,

I know nothing of what Dembski may or may not say about his religious  beliefs. If I see it in context, I might have an opinion. I think science may prove to be consonent with God, but not with particular dogma or religion. If he privately thinks so and says so to a religious group, then that's his business. But as with all people, it is very hard to allow truth to be what it will be, if one has inner desires.

Quote
It [evidence for evolution] looks like projection to me...

Only because you have a priori commitments to your god.
You have twisted this. The projection had nothing to do with evidence, it was about your assessment of the behaviors of the ID crowd that I called projection. Such as being impervious to evidence.

Quote
Which is why evidence is required.  The fact that you and your side can produce none vs. the fact that evolution has over a hundred years of accumulated evidence and peer-reviewed journal articles is a telling point here.  
Well, you must realize that the evidence you speak of is the same evidence that IDists are aware of, and it is no doubt why most of them accept evolution as a slow unfolding of life and one or a few common ancestors (some of them?) but they do not agree with all the interpretations of said evidence.

Quote
Do you think that one person's ego (or even a group of people) is what makes our genetic makeup so similar to that of apes?
I don't get what you're saying here.

I do not agree that paleontology verifies gradualism. But as for geology, I can only say that I never have thought all animals arrived at once or quickly. As Davison said over at his blog, it is the mechanism I have doubted.

  
Renier



Posts: 276
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 22 2006,23:45   

Avo wrote
Quote
As Davison said over at his blog, it is the mechanism I have doubted.


Ah, RM + NS is your ONLY problem then?

We have seen RM, it happens often. We have seen NS, it happens often. We can understand that RM and NS is a VERY plausable explanation for the mechanism of Evolution.

Since we have observed RM + NS, why do you have a problem with it? You would rather go for frontloading? Uh if I can recall Blast got blasted on this theory, since Gartner snakes do no have Cobra Venom genes, and that's just one simple example of why frontloading is BS.

We observe RM, and we observe NS. Have you got ANY observation that is a better candidate for the mechanism?

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 23 2006,02:06   

Quote
Oh, you asked so hard for reasons why I am an IDer, but now you haven't the time.
Huh?

--------------
Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
GCT



Posts: 1001
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 23 2006,02:33   

:03-->
Quote (avocationist @ Feb. 23 2006,01:03)
GCT,

I know nothing of what Dembski may or may not say about his religious  beliefs. If I see it in context, I might have an opinion. I think science may prove to be consonent with God, but not with particular dogma or religion. If he privately thinks so and says so to a religious group, then that's his business. But as with all people, it is very hard to allow truth to be what it will be, if one has inner desires.

I see now.  What Dembski says about ID to a religious group doesn't matter, but if Dawkins professes a philosophical statement, then evolution is atheistic.  Nice double standard you've got going there.

Try these links: http://www.talkorigins.org/indexcc/CI/CI001_1.html
http://litcandle.blogspot.com/2005....nt.html

Quote
You have twisted this. The projection had nothing to do with evidence, it was about your assessment of the behaviors of the ID crowd that I called projection. Such as being impervious to evidence.
The twisting was not intentional.  I did not get your point.  I will now answer your charge.

When the ID crowd uses old arguments that Creationists came up with 20+ years ago that have been discarded (and the adherents have admitted that they put the Bible first, science second) then, yes, I would say that's pretty strong evidence that the IDers are impervious to evidence.

Quote
Well, you must realize that the evidence you speak of is the same evidence that IDists are aware of, and it is no doubt why most of them accept evolution as a slow unfolding of life and one or a few common ancestors (some of them?) but they do not agree with all the interpretations of said evidence.

Oh, so IDists use the same evidence, but interpret it differently?  OK, let's examine this.  What evidence is there that any designer exists?  Seriously.  All Behe and Dembski, et. al. have done is say that it looks designed to them, so it must be.  That, however, is not how science is done.  I would expect them (at the bare minimum) to come up with some hypotheses and some tests of those hypotheses.  Care to enlighten us as to what any of those are?  What you are doing is making an a priori assumption that god exists and has designed us, and then you magically see the design that god did.  Unfortunately for you, everything and anything is evidence for that idea, and so it is completely useless to us and unscientific.
Quote
I don't get what you're saying here.

You made the statement that scientists accept evolution because they want to be right, that their egos obscure what you find obvious.  I was asking you if their egos are to blame for the fact that humans and chimps (and all mammals for that matter) share such genetic similarities.
Quote
I do not agree that paleontology verifies gradualism. But as for geology, I can only say that I never have thought all animals arrived at once or quickly. As Davison said over at his blog, it is the mechanism I have doubted.

Nice goal post move.  Considering that you haven't yet defined what you mean by "gradualism" and that that's not what I said or what I was arguing, I have to conclude that once again you are grasping at straws.  Paleontological finds as well as geology both verify the predictions of evolution.  We find wonderful transitional fossils at the time periods that make sense.  They all verify each other.  By denying evolution, you also deny those other fields of science.  Period.

  
Chris Hyland



Posts: 705
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 23 2006,02:37   

Quote
No one can account even in a plausible way for how a system like the flagellum can have evolved.
No one is saying that we have an exact pathway, especially not to Behes requirements. But based on the understanding we have of the mechanisms of evolution, this is by far the most likely option. There is no part of the flagellum that couldnt have concievably come about by the mechanisms we are aware of. We have to infre our knowledge of the evolution of other protein complexes to this one, if this does not satisfy you then that is just too bad. Behe has to prove that the falgellum couldnt have evolved, and he tries to do so by use of bad analogies and misrepresentation of the nature of biological systems. I am happy to try and explain this, but some of it I did in a previous post in response to your questions about cooption. The flagellum exists in many different configurations in many different bacteria with various different parts missing, in each case the other parts, especially those that 'would interact' are also slightly different. As i said before a small change in a protein can lead to a large change in its functional properties, or vice-versa. To fully understand requires more knowledge about protein structure than i can explain in a couple of paragraphs.

I am sorry if I am coming off sounding like an arrogant scientist, but that is just the problem. I read Darwins black box before I had heard of the Pandas thumb, or the NCSE, or Talk Origins, or the Discovery Institute, and I knew that it was a load of rubbish. To fully appreciate that fact you do need to understand biochemistry and evolution quite well. This is the biggest problem with the whole ID debate, it has made the public distrust scientists, and demand techincal explenations. Do you really think that I do not really believe waht I am saying, or that I am ignoring the evidence for ID even though I see some truth in it?

  
GCT



Posts: 1001
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 23 2006,03:19   

Behe's ideas are scientifically crap as well as logical crap.  As I've explained before, he is saying that there is no possible way that the flagellum could have evolved (he really means naturalistically BTW).  In order to prove that, he has to show that not only are all known mechanisms are inept to the task, and that all as yet unknown mechanisms of evolution are not up to the task.  Before he can conclude that the flagellum "poofed" into existence, he has to show that it could not have come about naturally, which is impossible to show.  The fact that you have bought into it shows that you have accepted the a priori assumption of god (and therefore violated science) and decided that it must therefore be true.

Now, before you protest that if god exists, then science must search for it because science searches for "truth."  You might want to define what you mean by "truth."  Science strives to best explain the world around us by the best means possible, which may be something quite different from searching for "truth."

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 23 2006,03:36   

If you saw how readily Avo bought Spetner's, um, "not-exactly-straight-talking-guy"ness - despite the easily verified facts - you'll know it's not going to be possible to convince her that Michael "prove to me that mutation X happened at time Y" Behe is full of crap.

Behe's "DBB" was my first introduction to ID also. I'd never heard of the Disco Inst, Phillip Johnson or any of the other ID celebs. But I do have a PhD in biochemistry. And my reaction was "you have to be kidding me!".

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Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
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