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  Topic: Uncommonly Dense Thread 5, Return To Teh Dingbat Buffet< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  
sparc



Posts: 2088
Joined: April 2007

(Permalink) Posted: June 20 2017,23:51   

Quote (Acartia_Bogart @ June 20 2017,13:17)
StephenB in referencing the conclusions of a Society for the Protection of Unborn Children report given to UK parliament in March 2013: (comment 287)

 
Quote
–Spain saw a pronounced acceleration in the decline of marriage following the introduction of same-sex marriage (same-sex marriage was introduced at the same time as the ‘express divorce bill’)


Kmidpuddle at 315:
 
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SB, I haven’t yet read the article in full but I double checked the raw data used to come up with the following statement “Spain saw a pronounced acceleration in the decline of marriage following the introduction of same-sex marriage (same-sex marriage was introduced at the same time as the ‘express divorce bill’).”

The report goes further to explain: “The descent is quite precipitous, since Spanish marriage rates (per thousand population) have been reasonably steady compared to some other countries – at 5.9 in 1980: 5.7 in 1990 and 5.4 in 2000 before the plunge to 3.8 in 2009.”

If you plot these points the sudden drop becomes quite obvious. However, when you go back to the source data used to draw this conclusion, the first thing that jumps out is that the author omitted the two data points prior to 1980 (7.8 and 7.3 for 1960 and 1970, respectively). When these two points are added back, the R^2 of the resulting linear curve changes from 0.78 to 0.93, suggesting that the 2009 data is just a continuation of an existing trend.

Given that that report was sponsored by a lobby group that is pro-life and anti-SSM, I suspected to find some bias, but to find outright data manipulation is very telling.

What makes this even better is the fact that StephenB declared victory before Kmidpuddle replied
Quote

297 StephenBJune 19, 2017 at 11:44 pm

Kairosfocus, did you notice how quickly kwimmuddle and jdk changed the subject after I presented the facts about the the negative effects of SSM @287.


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"[...] the type of information we find in living systems is beyond the creative means of purely material processes [...] Who or what is such an ultimate source of information? [...] from a theistic perspective, such an information source would presumably have to be God."

- William Dembski -

   
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