Arden Chatfield
Posts: 6657
Joined: Jan. 2006
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| Quote (Louis @ Oct. 16 2008,06:00) | | Quote (Stephen Elliott @ Oct. 16 2008,13:28) | | Quote (stevestory @ Oct. 15 2008,12:19) | The Intrade contracts right now are
Obama: 82
McCain: 18.6
If I had lots of disposable cash I would buy McCain contracts right now. He's almost certainly going to lose, but the media is thoroughly bored of the race and will surely seize on something in the next three weeks to pretend it's competitive and exciting, and McCain's numbers will rise a bit. |
I still think that Obama will lose. I hope I am wrong. |
I'm afraid you might be right, I have several friends who are betting heavily on Obama losing.
I'm not sure which way it'll go, my opinion depends on what I've just read on the matter!
Louis |
I know several black people who are convinced that 'they won't let Obama win'. Who am I to say they're wrong?
But one way this is different is that this year the margin isn't close. When the margin is razor thin, like it was in 2000 in FL and in 2004 in OH, that's when the potential for fraud goes thru the ceiling. Fuck up one or two counties in one state and you can steal the whole thing. But the GOP would have to do that to like 8 states this year, many of which are *not* as close as OH & FL were. An election is only really stealable when it's close, and this is not 2000 or 2004. From how things have been going the last few weeks, McCain's people could steal OH, FL and CO and Obama would still win, if he just added ~2 states to Kerry's total. Obama needs a big margin to win safely, and he looks to have that.
But I won't be resting easy til Nov. 5, either. Hopefully I won't have to eat these words next month.
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"Rich is just mad because he thought all titties had fur on them until last week when a shorn transvestite ruined his childhood dreams by jumping out of a spider man cake and man boobing him in the face lips." - Erasmus
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