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  Topic: Avocationist, taking some advice...seperate thread< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  
JonF



Posts: 634
Joined: Feb. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 16 2006,15:32   

Quote (avocationist @ Feb. 16 2006,18:25)
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No, it does NOT cut both ways.  When the IDists actually present evidence (any evidence) then there might be a discussion.  Until then it will remain one sided, because ideas without evidence get no play.

Perhaps you ought to start looking for it. I am going to try to some extent, but I can't bring everybody up to speed.

We've been looking for it.  Haven't been able to find it.  Not in the writings of any of the IDists, not in the natural world, not anywhere.

  
tiredofthesos



Posts: 59
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 16 2006,17:40   

There is only the "spiritual world"????  To modernize Swift, what do you consider that stuff that comes out your ass?

 Avo, you are - at great and exceptional unfunny length - offering up what can be called on a forum that censors certain language (and that's fine by me) "horsehockey."  Enjoy this phantasy, whatever your role is imagined to be within it, but don't expect to be anything other than the butt of many jokes - you DID notice that no one even bothers to get upset with you now, or did you?

 How much are you donating to the I.D. cause?  If nothing, why not, if you really believe an iota of your own horsehockey?

  
sir_toejam



Posts: 846
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 16 2006,17:43   

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To modernize Swift, what do you consider that stuff that comes out your ass?


ahh, that, which by any other name, would smell as sweet...

  
avocationist



Posts: 173
Joined: Feb. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 16 2006,18:51   

No Russ, I don't know how to calculate probabilities. But it should be easy enough to do. It's pretty simple. You have 52 cards and a perfect hand of bridge is when each of the four players gets an entire suit. Do you want Spetner's calc's?

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you DID notice that no one even bothers to get upset with you now, or did you?
Oh. I thought some people were getting a little bit too upset. So I guess it could be worse.

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If he was a grad student, using ID for his thesis topic,he would have washed out of grad school
He did use an ID topic for his thesis. I read it recently. I can't remember just what it was.

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well, then, proceeding from there, you have a lot of work to do inventing an entirely new way to test hypothesis and predictions, as there is no way to utilize the scientific method to answer any questions arising in your world.
I assure you, it is the very same world, and everything still works. Don't fret.

Rilke's Granddaughter:

Eric Rilke was my childhood sweetheart. Are you his sister?

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The point is that folks such as Avo (and indeed, people like Dembski and Behe, etc.) honestly believe that the difference between, say man and chimp isn't a quantitative difference ('2' vs. '3x10^113' ), but a qualitative difference ('2' vs. 'B' ).


Well, if that is the sort of argument (and I am referring to Puck's argument of 1+1=2) given to overcome the obstacles to NDE, then I must say I am ......shocked. Simply shocked. No wonder Jon says they've been looking but haven't found it.

Anyway, I have to give this idea some thought. What is a qualitative difference in a world made of strings?

Do you not find a qualitative difference between the intelligence of humans and chimps? What about humans and frogs? If it is just a matter of increased quantity, then what would constitute a qualitative difference? How about motility? Does that count?

It's not that there is a qualitative difference between people and chimps, there are qualitative differnces between all major divisions. Isn't a shell a qualitative difference from a backbone?

  
sir_toejam



Posts: 846
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 16 2006,19:40   

Quote
He did use an ID topic for his thesis. I read it recently. I can't remember just what it was.


not quite... and what do you think happened to Dembski after he graduated?  did he go on to pursue a career in science?  no?  where is Big D right now eh?  Ever take a look at one of his current course syllabi?  is that the kind of stuff you would teach your kids?

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I assure you, it is the very same world, and everything still works. Don't fret.


you sir, certainly don't make me "fret".

however, please do show us how the scientific method works to test "spiritual" hypotheses, or even how you manage to create one to begin with.

It sure seems you have constructed your own little pocket of null-reality there.

and speaking of null-reality...

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No wonder Jon says they've been looking but haven't found it.


*sigh*

I assume you are referring to JAD?

If so, man, you sure are heading farther and farther into null-space.

why don't you ask Jon why he has never tested his PEH sometime?

and ask him why it ended up as the crankiest evolutionary theory listed on crank.net, while your at it.

really, if you think PEH, or any other pant-loading concept holds water, you have no business being here.  You're too far gone to bring back to reality.

bye bye.

  
PuckSR



Posts: 314
Joined: Nov. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 16 2006,19:46   

let me preface this post by explaining that I have been drinking....so this might not make a great deal of sense

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Paleontoogy is not considered Darwinism's strong suit


Really...because I dont think dinosaur bones are supporting creationism or Intelligent Design....unless the ID makes mistakes...massive billion year old mistakes

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Miller gets down on his knees before a man in a dress and funny hat, and lets him put a little white disc on his tongue, because he believes the prayers of the man in a dress has miraculously changed it into the body of Jesus. So that can't be the whole problem.


Wow....that just sounded incredibly spiteful.  I thought you liked Jesus.  Did he give you the idea that being a jerk was ok?

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But Dawkins didn't do the calculation. And I have to ask myself - is it because he has no feel for probability, or is he dishonest? According to Spetner, if the being played 100 hands of bridge every day for 100 million years, the chance of seeing a perfect hand of bridge just once in his life is one in a quadrillion. Definitely something to write home about.


LMAO
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Odds against receiving a perfect hand (13 cards in one suit) = 169,066,442 to 1


quadrillion-1,000,000,000,000,000

the funny thing is that the number of times you perform an action do not effect the probability.  If you flip a coin a million times....your odds of getting a head are still 1 in 2 every time you flip.....

unless you are referring to the law of large numbers....in which case it is indicated that the odds will eventually balance out if the chance event occurs frequently enough.

Either way...the math is flawed....

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But Dawkins didn't do the calculation.


Of course he didnt....only an idiot would assume that he could quantify the probability of all random occurences that have ever occured.  He can guess...but unless he was there...he cant really give you odds.

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No, it doesn't seem preposterous at all. What seems preposterous is that a creature could have 7% of a wing, or 22% of a wing.


Really....like a penguin?
Hmmm...maybe you are referring to 25% of an eye....like a light sensitive organ that cannot detect shape or distance.  It would really kill your cause if we found one of those.

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but everyone knows that - it apparently upset some people in Newton's day.


Newton didnt upset anyone with his theory of gravity...no one that didnt concede under the heap of evidence.  Who are you talking about?

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A cell is many orders of magnitude more complex than dropping balls off a tower. It would be better to compare a cell to the entire working of the cosmos. If you landed on an empty planet, and found structures like the pyramids but no people (perhaps life got wiped out) you might study many things about their composition and structure, but wouldn't the question of whether they were placed there intentionally be of interest?


Hmmm interesting...so i suppose if we found grids of rocks existing and someone told you that they were natural...you wouldnt believe them either.

In the case of the mysterious planet....you fail to mention something.  Pyramids, from our point of reference do not occur naturally.  We have never seen giant complex structures arise from nature....however, you have no point of reference for the cell....except to point to your own, rather humble experiences.

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       We still get sick...the 'Designer' apparently didnt do a very good job with immune systems, therefore there are still germs.--me

That isn't how it works. Everything is food. The system would crash if the balance were unbalanced.  Hmmm... how would it crash if germs ceased to exist?


Germs do not "consume" organisms...they use organisms.  Germs and computer viruses have a lot in common....would the internet cease to exist if we didnt have computer viruses?

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Alright, I was going on memory. I am pretty sure that TB and other pathogens have been identified from bodies that are thousands of years old. But somehow I am not sure you are right.


You said "millions"....obviously you dont understand that millions is very different than thousands.  Once again, you cannot conceptualize such large numbers.

Your question about counting to a billion tells me you haven't read what IDists have to say on the topic of probability. Time is not a miracle worker.

I dont really care about time....the question...and a rather simple one at that...is how long would it take for you to count to a billion....off the top of your head.

Ill change it to 3 questions
1) how long to count to 1,000?
2) how long to count to a million?
3) how long to count to a billion?

the point...if you care to take this excercise any further...is that you probably dont comprehend the massive difference between a thousand and a billion

  
sir_toejam



Posts: 846
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 16 2006,19:52   

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I dont really care about time....the question...and a rather simple one at that...is how long would it take for you to count to a billion....off the top of your head.


How long does it take to get to the tootsie roll center of a tootsie pop?

  
Stephen Elliott



Posts: 1776
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 16 2006,23:16   

Quote (PuckSR @ Feb. 17 2006,01:46)
I dont really care about time....the question...and a rather simple one at that...is how long would it take for you to count to a billion....off the top of your head.

With a very simplified calculation. It wont be quite right but will give an idea. I came to an answer of 30 years non-stop counting. At 8 hours per day it would take 90 years.

In reality it would probably take far longer. I allowed one number per second. Sounds slow for low numbers, but as the majority of numbers are in excess of 1,348, 712 I am actually being generous.

So; 1000,000,000
/60=16,666,667 mins
/60=277.778 hours
/24=11,574 days
/365=31.7 years  So 31 years non-stop. @8Hrs/day = 93 years.

Sounds like fun, here goes; 1,2,3,4, ...

  
JonF



Posts: 634
Joined: Feb. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,02:00   

Quote (sir_toejam @ Feb. 17 2006,01:40)
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No wonder Jon says they've been looking but haven't found it.


*sigh*

I assume you are referring to JAD?

More likely referring to me, the first post at the top of this page.

  
JonF



Posts: 634
Joined: Feb. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,02:05   

Quote (avocationist @ Feb. 17 2006,00:51)
No wonder Jon says they've been looking but haven't found {evidence for ID}.

I notice you haven't offered any.

  
Chris Hyland



Posts: 705
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,03:56   

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We've been looking for it.  Haven't been able to find it.  Not in the writings of any of the IDists, not in the natural world, not anywhere.
Thats because no one has found any, even if we assume that the motivations and philosophies of all the people involved are irrelevant. Lets also assume that the motivations, ablities and identities of the designer are not required to detect design. The problem is that ID proponents are saying they have the evidence. Dembski for example, says he has mathematical methods that can detect design, however he has yet to prove this. He has neither proved that non-intelligence is incapable of generating CSI, nor had he proved that his methods can distinguish design from non-design. Until this happens, whether or not the maths or the logic of his arguments add up is irrelevant. Im sure mathematicians will hate me for saying that, but in biology all that matters is that it can be proved to work, Dembski has not attempted this as far as I am aware.

  
improvius



Posts: 807
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,04:46   

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He has neither proved that non-intelligence is incapable of generating CSI, nor had he proved that his methods can distinguish design from non-design.


This is a clever little trap they've made for themselves.  Even if they had an actual comparitive method, they'd still have to assume the existence of "non-design".  We must be able to observe things that are not the result of intelligent design.  In other words, there must be some things that God did not create.  This necessary assumption seems antithetical to fundamentalist doctrine.

--------------
Quote (afdave @ Oct. 02 2006,18:37)
Many Jews were in comfortable oblivion about Hitler ... until it was too late.
Many scientists will persist in comfortable oblivion about their Creator ... until it is too late.

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,05:57   

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(Avo: ) But Dawkins didn't do the calculation. And I have to ask myself - is it because he has no feel for probability, or is he dishonest? According to Spetner, if the being played 100 hands of bridge every day for 100 million years, the chance of seeing a perfect hand of bridge just once in his life is one in a quadrillion. Definitely something to write home about.

Now, I can understand a bumpkin like myself making this mistake. But Dawkins has a PhD, a science degree, is a chair at one of the most prestigious universities in the world, has written books that specifically deal with the problems of evolution, and he is the Grand Poobah of the public understanding of science.
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(Russell: )  I assume, Avocreationist, you've already gone through this exercise [of verifying the calculation]. Please don't tell us you're just taking Spetner's word for it.
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(Avo: )  No Russ, I don't know how to calculate probabilities. But it should be easy enough to do. It's pretty simple. You have 52 cards and a perfect hand of bridge is when each of the four players gets an entire suit. Do you want Spetner's calc's?
So... you did just take Spetner's word for it??? Why would you do that???

Here's my calculation. (First of all, I assume the alien in question is only concerned about the hand he/she/it is dealt, not the hands of the other 3 players. Just as in poker, if I have a royal flush, its "degree of royalty" does not depend on the hands of the other players.) Being dealt the hand you describe should have a probability of  1/158,753,389,900. Here's why: the first card you're dealt has a 52/52 chance of being of one suit. Then three more cards are dealt before you get another one. All three have to be of a suit different from yours: 39/51 x 38/50 x 37/49. Then you're dealt another. Chance of it's being the same suit as your first card: 12/48. Repeat all the way through the deck, you get (12! )x(39! )/(51! ) = 1/158,753,389,900.

In 100 million years X 100 hands per day, you'd get 3,652,600,000,000 shots at it, so I would expect to get a perfect hand somewhere around 3,652,600,000,000/158,753,389,900 = 23 times.

Now, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if I neglected something in this calculation, but if so, I hope it's something relatively subtle. Please tell me what's wrong with my calculation. OR - if you can't - why you perceive egg on Dawkins face over this.

Could it be that you've just demonstrated, once again, your bias in whose word you're willing to take for things you don't or won't understand? And could it be that the egg is on your face?

--------------
Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
Chris Hyland



Posts: 705
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,05:58   

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Even if they had an actual comparitive method, they'd still have to assume the existence of "non-design".
You're right of course, but to give them the benefit of the doubt, it may be possible to test on non biological systems, perhaps using genetic algorithms, or some form of artificial life. Also, if Dembski has calculated the probability of the flagellum evolving, it should be possible to apply the same method to a biological system where we understand more about its evolution. Assuming the maths holds up to scrutiny, which it apparently doesn't, that might not prove intelligent design but it would be useful for them.

Of course if this worked it probably would have been done by now.

  
C.J.O'Brien



Posts: 395
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,08:29   

Finally, we're simply not equipped to appreciate "deep time."
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Ah, yes. Another Dawkins favorite. Let's see what Spetner has to say in Not By Chance. Dawkins is discussing improbable events occurring to bring about origin of life. This is in chapter 6 of Blind Watchmaker. He says that Dawkins asks us to drop our intuitive feeling for chance. I guess he doesn't think it evolved very well, probably because his didn't. Dawkins likens the probability of certain admittedely very unlikely events to a long-lived alien playing bridge for millions of years, waiting for that perfect hand of bridge. He said a being who lived millions of years, would have a very different feeling about chance and time. If the being lived 100 million years, it would not be unusual for him to see a perfect hand of bridge from time to time and he would scarcely write home about it.

But Dawkins didn't do the calculation. And I have to ask myself - is it because he has no feel for probability, or is he dishonest? According to Spetner, if the being played 100 hands of bridge every day for 100 million years, the chance of seeing a perfect hand of bridge just once in his life is one in a quadrillion. Definitely something to write home about.

Now, I can understand a bumpkin like myself making this mistake. But Dawkins has a PhD, a science degree, is a chair at one of the most prestigious universities in the world, has written books that specifically deal with the problems of evolution, and he is the Grand Poobah of the public understanding of science.

As you've seen by now, Dawkins' calculation was perfectly appropriate to illustrate the point. But even if it weren't, you're just dealing with the illustration and not the point, which is valid. People are not generally equipped to conceive of frames of reference more than a couple of orders of magnitude from our everyday experience. This gives them an excuse to object to evolution on a 'gut level' without engaging the evidence.

It seems preposterous to most people that, for instance, a 1% improvement in wing efficiency could act as a "force" leading to differential survival among a lineage of proto-birds.
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No, it doesn't seem preposterous at all. What seems preposterous is that a creature could have 7% of a wing, or 22% of a wing.

A couple of points here.
First, the idea that any biological feature is some 'percentage' of the 'completed' feature misunderstands evolution. Only with hindsight can we say that one organism was 'evolving into' another. If a creature possesses what we arbitrarily deem to be '20%' of a wing, it's because that feature provided a discernable advantage to that creature's ancestors in its way of life. If an improvement in that feature comes about due to mutation, the improved version will spread in the population.
Additionally, there are numerous examples (flying squirrrels, flying snakes, flying fish) of gliding animals that do, indeed, have features that can be compared to 'partial' wings. Remembering my first point, though, we must keep in mind that a flying squirrel is a 'complete' organism in its own right, whose ancestors were successful in perpetuating a lineage of gliding arboreal mammals. They were not 'striving' to be 'more like a bat' for instance.
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Berlinski dealt with this in his answer to the Fish Eyes paper, but you folks don't read him, do you? Meyer deals with this problem also - but I don't suppose anyone has read his scandalous paper either. There are other authors and I am sure I have some at hand who find the problem of random mutations leading slowly to novel features and managing to incorporate them into existing structure all the while problematic. Now, maybe it occurred, but it is definitely problematic.

I have in fact read Berlinski's bombast regarding the Nilsson and Pelger paper, the original of which I have also read. Have you?

I still maintain that what is 'problematic' about evolutionary narratives of this sort is the personal incredulity of the individual with a problem. "I don't see how" (X) occured is just not a convincing argument when someone is telling you that they DO see a plausible progression. That these sorts of explanations are routinely derided as 'Just-so Stories' by creationists without further analysis is just shorthand for "keep up that incrtedulity." The problem you have with "managing to incorporate them into existing structure" might be ignoring that the original function of a 'co-opted' structure may have been an entirely different one in the ancestral lineage. The evolution of the mammalian inner ear is a classic example.
As regards fish eyes, I saw a fascinating report recently about a 'four eyed fish'. It seems that the lens structure in the newer set of downward facing eyes is entirely 'reinvented.' i.e. Despite having a perfectly good embryonic pathway for growing lenses in the original eyes, another one has evolved from scratch. Kind of spells trouble for 'frontloading' arguments. Don't remember where I saw it, but if I can I'll try to link it up.
And, avo, if you have any interest in looking into the Nilsson and Pelger paper and Berlinski's critique, we can link that up too and talk it over.

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The is the beauty of being me- anything that any man does I can understand.
--Joe G

  
Henry J



Posts: 5786
Joined: Mar. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,08:54   

Re "Finally, we're simply not equipped to appreciate "deep time.""

Personally, I just treat it as simple arithmetic. If something can move a millimeter in a year, then in a few billion years it could cross a middle sized continent.

Henry

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,10:48   

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[Behe and Dembski] are examining the question of how do we reasonably infer design.
Right. But for all the useful conclusions that have come out it, they might just as well be examining their navels. So far, I think you can summarize those conclusions as "If it looks designed, who's to say it isn't?"
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It is not a refutation of ID if ID does not know how the designer did it.
I know of no research programs capable of detecting supernatural events.
So, if I understand correctly, ID says that because we don't know everything, we should leave open the possibility that some as yet unspecified explanation might emerge. OK. I'll buy that. It's when we start specifying scientifically - indeed, epistemologically - meaningless candidates (e.g. a "disembodied intelligence", "supernatural agency", "The Designer") that you lose me. The point is, ID doesn't provide anything substantial to refute.
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But NDE (neodarwinian evolution) doesn't know a lot of things also. One person who has
at least taken a stab at proposing how things might have unfolded, albeit designed to do so,
is Davison.
Huh? The fact that the currently most successful theory "doesn't know everything" somehow validates Davison's crackpottery?

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(Russell: ) What are these alleged very good arguments against "Darawinism"?
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(Avo: ) This is what we are spiraling towards. I will have to give it some serious effort, hopefully tomorrow.
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(Annie: )
The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A day
A way!
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(Avo: )SFAIK, [research Behe claims is nonexistent] is mostly overblown. We'll see.
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(Avo: )I just read today that Behe is planning an afterword in a 10th anniversary addition to DBB which will address said lack of any forthcoming refutation in the intervening ten years
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(Annie: )The sun'll come out...
well, you get the idea.
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It seems that the ID side usually goes through the literature with a fine comb and finds it wanting, having been promised far more than delivered. I don't actually go through the articles myself.
Need I say more? Apparently I do. Do you really think every contention the Disco Inst makes remains legitimate until the Disco Inst issues an explicit, public, notarized statement conceding that their scientific pretentions have been thoroughly demolished?
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The bit about slappig down 59 or whatever it was articles during the courtroom trial
was just as Behe said - bad courtroom theatrics. It is not to be taken seriously.
I don't give a flying fig whether the references were "slapped down" in court, or brought to Behe's attention in a discreet private e-mail. The point remains: he said that all that research did not, and never would, exist. Why is it not to be taken seriously? References to evolution of immunity presented at Kitzmiller trial: Here.
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(Russell: ) Have you read Matt Inlay's summary of evolution of immunity?
Here.  
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All evidence used in trial is 'discoverable' which means it must be presented in adequate time to the lawyers of both sides.
Excuse me. I thought this was a discussion about science and evidence, not about courtroom procedural rules
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When I am not equipped to judge what I read, I think I usually know.
I don't disagree: you do think that. But perhaps if you remember the key words, "Spetner" and "perfect bridge hand", you'll think twice.
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I can't judge Demski's math, but I can certainly read and evaluate the logic of most of his essays.
What logic is there that is not completely dependent on the math? Have you noticed that no one who defends the conclusions can defend the math, and that no one who understands the math defends the conclusions?
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I can't read biology papers that are beyond my level, which is low, but if it is written for the nonexpert, one would hope that I have at least a fair ability.
Let me just throw out this wildly hypothetical idea. What if the creationists purporting to critique the biologists are actually not so much trying to objectively explain, as they are to obfuscate and deny the science, and to justify a conclusion they're committed to by faith? Whoa! I think I just blew my own mind!  
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I was intrigued by, but not able to verify or come to a firm opinion on Davison's Evolutionary Manifesto. That I think would require a pretty deep knowledge of biology.
So why do you suppose it has not been endorsed by anyone who possesses a deep (read: minimal professional) knowledge of biology?
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I'm just not that moved by majority versus minority opinions.
Glad to hear it. I hope you relayed your unimpressedness to the Disco Inst over garbage like this .
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Your argument is that the majority must be right,
Wrong.  My argument is that, if you're going to dismiss the conclusions of entire disciplines with millions of person hours of meticulously documented research that has been thoroughly vetted by the scientific community, in favor of an "iconoclastic", not-peer-previewed, thoroughly rebutted book, whose central point is later abandoned by its author, you should have some better justification than "looks reasonable to this untrained eye".
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postmodernism says that if it's true for me then it's true for me - a completely different ballgame.
Forgive me, but the two ballgames look pretty similar to me.

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(Russell: ) But please, pray tell, what do you consider the driving force of evolution? Disembodied intelligence? Fascinating! Tell us how that works. Or, more to the point, tell us what evidence you have.
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(Avo: ) I have wondered this, and I don't have the answer. Look, ...a human being is floating in the endless black without a compass or coordinate.
And there are two kinds of people in this world. A tiny minority who have noticed this, and the rest who haven't thought about it.
Now, don't tell me; let me guess: which category does Avocreationist fall into? And is one's opinion of ID, or creationism in general, correlated with which group one falls into?
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Pretending to have answers, or taking the nearest half-decent answer, doesn't satisfy me.
Unless, apparently, it comes from a Behe or a Spetner, in which case it doesn't even need to be half decent.
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Yes, I think there is disembodied intelligence. My personal take on how it might work is that this intelligence, which may or may not be personal, is acting from within, guiding itself so to speak. This may answer the questions about why the creation isn't perfect or appears willy nilly at times. It very likely is.
Yes, well, that's all very fascinating, in a New Agey kind of way. But, I repeat: Tell us what evidence you have.
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When did I misunderstand the difference between a virus and a bacteria?
When you  referred to influenza bacteria.
Wendell Bird - no obvious religious axe to grind? Either you are unfamiliar with the organization he's affiliated with: the Institute for Creation Research or you are very, very gullible.

There, I think I'm caught up.

--------------
Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
avocationist



Posts: 173
Joined: Feb. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,14:06   

I think I have to see if I can keep this short.

Jon and others seem to say that in all the ID writings, they have not found a good argument. Sure, I find this strange. Anyway, I will go through the Miller-Demski flagellum papers and comment. Hopefully today.

Unfortunately, the perfect hand of bridge involves all four players getting a full suit. I specified that! I took Spetner's word for it in the sense that I would be very suprised if he would be stupid enough to make such an error when correcting someone else's. And I have you folks to help me out. If he is way off, I will personally write to him.

Puck, although you called me cheap and dishonest, I'll go thru and answer the most pertinent points.
I don't suppose that dinosaurs indicate a mistake.


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Miller gets down on his knees before a man in a dress and funny hat, and lets him put a little white disc on his tongue, because he believes the prayers of the man in a dress has miraculously changed it into the body of Jesus. So that can't be the whole problem.


Wow....that just sounded incredibly spiteful.  I thought you liked Jesus.  Did he give you the idea that being a jerk was ok?
 Not too spiteful, mostly just matter of fact. The point was, his faith does not prevent him accepting evolution theory. I do like Jesus. Altho his existence cannot be proven.

I don't know what LMAO stands for.

I'm not sure how the fact that the probability is the same each time you deal relates...I don't know the law of large numbers.
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Of course he didnt....only an idiot would assume that he could quantify the probability of all random occurences that have ever occured.  He can guess...but unless he was there...he cant really give you odds.
Yes, no one knows the real odds of the real events he was speaking about, but his point was to show that people don't have an appreciation of deep time. What he showed was that he, who is NOT ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE, also has no feel for when a calculation is necessary.

I've seen it written, re god of the gaps or just history, that Newton's theories bothered people because they thought God or his angels moved the planets. His mechanistic universe supposedly unemployed God.
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Pyramids, from our point of reference do not occur naturally.  We have never seen giant complex structures arise from nature....however, you have no point of reference for the cell
Yes, this is the problem exactly. We are discussing living systems that reproduce. If not for that, there wouldn't be confusion.

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Im sure mathematicians will hate me for saying that, but in biology all that matters is that it can be proved to work,
Much in NDE is also unproved.

Improvius,  
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Even if they had an actual comparitive method, they'd still have to assume the existence of "non-design".  We must be able to observe things that are not the result of intelligent design.  In other words, there must be some things that God did not create.  This necessary assumption seems antithetical to fundamentalist doctrine.
Not sure why you say it is a necessary assumtion. God created everything - you must mean things like wind blowing over sand and leaving patterns. Yes, this is just the sort of thing that IDists do use.

CJ,

As I already said above, the point that people need to understand large numbers is valid, but my point was that Dawkins doesn't understand, and he uses deep time like magic. It isn't magic.

I have a good argument against the flying squirrels idea. Completely different construction  - gliding apparatuses don't lead to wings. It is in one of my silly books here somewhere. Perhaps I should learn to use th scanner.

I haven't read the original of the fish eyes paper; I suspect I won't learn from it. But I'm willing to. I know where to find the Berlinski critique, but I don't remember if the paper is linked. It seems odd you call Berlinski's points bombast. I rather thought the 4 or 5 defenders engaged in bombast - although I did not think so until I read Berlinski's replies to them. I read their points first, and I decided that they demolished whoever they were arguing against and decided not to bother reading further. But my eyes strayed down and I read the first paragraph or two of Berlinski's answers. Yes, I thought he demolished them.

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"I don't see how" (X) occured is just not a convincing argument
Sure, but they say a lot more than that.

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when someone is telling you that they DO see a plausible progression.
But Miller, for example, said no such thing. More later.

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The problem you have with "managing to incorporate them into existing structure" might be ignoring that the original function of a 'co-opted' structure may have been an entirely different one in the ancestral lineage.
But that IS the problem. In biology, everything has to interface perfectly. Co-option - I don't understand how it is supposed to work. It sounds to me like parts lying around in the garage. My husband does this sort of thing all the time - he invents things from parts lying around to get a job done - such as placing drywall on the basement ceiling with only a weakling to help. How does the cell co-opt a part or several parts that were used for different things and make them fit, and how does it decide that hey, I've got this handy piece here, now let me code it into a different spot in the genome to go with this other thingie... I mean how does it get into the blueprint? do you see what I'm asking? You've got a widget out in the cell, and you've got a need or some evolving system - but how does the 'idea' occur to get them together in the genome that that the building of the new structure is coordinated?

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If something can move a millimeter in a year, then in a few billion years it could cross a middle sized continent.
But it isn't that simple and that is what the argument is about.

Russ,
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It's when we start specifying scientifically - indeed, epistemologically - meaningless candidates (e.g. a "disembodied intelligence", "supernatural agency", "The Designer") that you lose me.
 I'm sorry about that and I sympathize. But look closely at what Jeannot said on the pissant thread:

She says ID is unscientific because-
"First, it requires a programmer that could be supernatural, which is not falsifiable,"

And so this is a kind of circle that is going on. If the scientist decides that evidence simply cannot point to the supernatural, even indirectly, then what are we to do if our universe was indeed caused by an intelligence or self-existing entity? Science would forever bar itself from discovering truth.

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The point is, ID doesn't provide anything substantial to refute.
It is falsifiable, and since it is a direct refutation of Darwinism, it had better be, or else they are both unfalsifiable. The falsification would be finding out how complex biochemical systems could self-originate.

I cannot validate or invalidate Davison's quackery, I merely pointed out that I am glad to see someone thinking outside the box (others are as well) because I think evolutin theory needs new ideas.

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The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow


Ha, ha! Good one. It reminds me of one of my favorite parts of Through The Looking Glass, when Alice is being hired by the Red Queen. The queen tells her that at teatime she will get jam on her toast every other day. Oh, good, says Alice, Is it jam today?
No, says the queen, it is always jam yesterday, and jam tomorrow. It is never jam today.

No. I am not putting procedural rules ahead of evidence. I'm saying you can't suddenly slap down 59 articles and demand a real and true opinion on the spot. If  even a few of those articles were really good, why didn't they use them properly?  Behe did his search of the literature and he testified that there were no good pathways in the literature. He cannot be expected to give an opinion on articles slapped down in front of him. Some of those articles might have been the very ones he rejected in his search. some of them may have had only the barest passing reference to the subject. If indeed any of them truly refuted Behe's points, it would mean that the article was unknown to him at the time of his testimony. It is his responsibility to peruse them now, but not during his testimony. You keep saying that everyone is lying. Behe, Spetner. I think the dialogue is not on that low a level.

I'll of course try to give the immunity thing a go, but that is just one more thing to pile on. But you seem to have high hopes for it...

When I say I have read Dembski's articles, I mean I have not read any of them which rely on his math principles. I have a familiarity with his probability bound, but that's all. Not all his writings depend upon his math.

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What if the creationists purporting to critique the biologists
But some of them ARE biologists, and some of them are agnostics - really! They could accept evolution easily. They could certainly be deists.

If you are going to say (and you did) that personal motive drives their conclusions, then I can only point out as I already have done that no one is immune and

The Unexamined Life Is Not Worth Living!

No matter who you are!

The garbage at the disco inst - that was an article about how most people in Ohio want ID covered in school - it was not saying that because most people want it they are correct in an objective sense about evolution.

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Forgive me, but the two ballgames look pretty similar to me.
Oh,yeah? Well then our problems are solved. NDE is true for you, and young earth creation is true for scordova, and a new-age pantheistic consciousness god for me - and we're all correct.

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(Avo: ) I have wondered this, and I don't have the answer. Look, ...a human being is floating in the endless black without a compass or coordinate.
And there are two kinds of people in this world. A tiny minority who have noticed this, and the rest who haven't thought about it.
Now, don't tell me; let me guess: which category does Avocreationist fall into? And is one's opinion of ID, or creationism in general, correlated with which group one falls into?
 No. Not at all. You asked me an ultimate truth-type question, and I gave you the straight dope. We're in dire straights here. Actually, belonging to a religion would be a hindrance to seeing this.

Influenza bacteria was just not thinking. Bird - I bought his book 'cause I heard of it. I wasn't aware of his connections but while reading I suspected he might be connected with them due to using the same notation to show that a quote is not from a creationist.

Evidence for a disembodied intelligence or a 'spiritual' aspect to reality - there's more than you might think but there's just no time.

  
sir_toejam



Posts: 846
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,14:25   

Quote
there's more than you might think but there's just no time.


hey this is YOUR thread, eh.

you have as much time as you want.

based on your current level of knowledge of the topics at hand, I predict it will take you about a year to come to any coherent reckoning.

I'll check back then.

  
JonF



Posts: 634
Joined: Feb. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,14:38   

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Jon and others seem to say that in all the ID writings, they have not found a good argument.

You need to work on that reading comprehension.  Arguments have not been mentioned.  Evidence has.  We have found none of the evidence for ID, which you claimed exists, and I note you still haven't proffered any evidence. Evidence.  "Something visible or evident that gives grounds for believing in the existence or presence of something else"

Of course, we haven't found a good argument for ID either, but that's another story.

  
Chris Hyland



Posts: 705
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,15:02   

Quote
Quote
Im sure mathematicians will hate me for saying that, but in biology all that matters is that it can be proved to work,
Much in NDE is also unproved.
Ill rephrase: in biology all that matters when you have a mathematical system that makes predictions is that it can be proved to work. I write programs that make predicitons based on biologial data, and it doesnt matter how good or bad the maths is, you have to prove that your method works on real data, has Dembski done this? I am not saying his method is rubbish, but I am saying he has not proved it. Until then it is not evidence for design.

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But that IS the problem. In biology, everything has to interface perfectly.

No it doesn't. I think ths is a big part of the problem and the confusion, the assumtion that these system are perfect. A lot of these things are 'cobbled together' very crudely by any standards. It is often obvious to us how improvements could be made. In regards to how cooption works, you have to extrapolate to thousands or millions of members of a population, and maybe only one needs the proteins with the right mutation to come together (which are ussually floating around in solution, bumping into each other). When most people use analogies like parts in a garage, scrap in a junkyard etc it fails to take into account the nature of protein structure. They are often very malleable, and a small change can alter the biological function but still leave an active protein. For example in the flagellum we may say that removng one protein will cause the system to cease functioning, but we are making the assumption that the other proteins in the system were the same when this one was added. This is very unlikely to be the case, so evolution would predict that we see flagellum in other bacteria with parts missing, where the proteins that they would interact with are different, and that is what we see (and im not referring to the secretory system, there are many other examples).

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Behe did his search of the literature and he testified that there were no good pathways in the literature.
I will have to find the link but there is a quote from Behe where he says that the evidence that would convince him involves a detailed step by step account of the pathway involving a list of individual mutations and time periods in which they occured. This is of course currently impossible for any system, including those that he accepts did evolve, such as haemoglobin. I dont think Behe is lying, and i think he may have read some of the articles, especially as there are books on the subject. But no one is attempting to produce an explenation that will satisfy him as it is unessecary as far as most scientists are concerned.

  
avocationist



Posts: 173
Joined: Feb. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,16:04   

OK, I'm most of the way throgh with the Miller side of the argument and I will be back tomorrow night.

  
PuckSR



Posts: 314
Joined: Nov. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 17 2006,20:08   

Ok....once again im drunk

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Yes, this is the problem exactly. We are discussing living systems that reproduce. If not for that, there wouldn't be confusion.


OK....you missed the point.  If you point to a watch and say....this is obviously designed....you are using everyone's knowledge that a watch is designed.

If you point to an ocean, and say "this is obviously designed", everyone will laugh at you.  No one has ever seen a "designed" ocean.  In a million years if aliens land on earth...and they find the ruins that were Mount Rushmore....do you think the design will be obvious to them?

You cannot point to complexity and say...."this is designed"...pi is incredibly complex....is it designed?

The designer couldnt make pi=3?

BTW....sorry if I offended you....I wasnt trying to be rude...I was just trying to lighten the mood

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 18 2006,03:43   

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Unfortunately, the perfect hand of bridge involves all four players getting a full suit. I specified that!
Yeah, I saw that. I assumed that you were making a slip of the keyboard, because, after all, a "hand" is a "hand", No?  In any case, if the whole thing turns on a ridiculous technicality like that, don't you think you - and Spetner - have kind of missed the whole point?
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I took Spetner's word for it in the sense that ...
"in the sense that I was determined he just had to be right; after all, he was telling me what I already knew!".
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And I have you folks to help me out. If he is way off, I will personally write to him.
Well, what if he's just grasping at a far-fetched straw to dismiss a perfectly sensible illustration? Will you continue to stand by your man?

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"I don't see how" (X) occured is just not a convincing argument
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Sure, but they say a lot more than that.
See, this would have been your golden opportunity to reference something that doesn't amount to a lot of words saying "I don't see how (X) occurred". But no.

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It's when we start specifying scientifically - indeed, epistemologically - meaningless candidates (e.g. a "disembodied intelligence", "supernatural agency", "The Designer") that you lose me.
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I'm sorry about that and I sympathize. But look closely at what Jeannot said on the pissant thread...
Oh, that's a good idea. Don't deal with what I wrote. Deflect the conversation with what someone else said, which may or may not have anything to do with anything, or may contain some technical loophole, like fudging the difference between a "hand" and a "deal", you can try to wriggle through. How about you just deal with what I wrote?

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I'll of course try to give the immunity thing a go, but that is just one more thing to pile on. But you seem to have high hopes for it...
Quite the contrary. I'm certain that you will find some reason justifying Behe's willful ignorance despite any amount of evidence. The point is not for Behe to digest 59 articles while sitting in front of the judge. The point is that Behe has willfully ignored, and will continue to willfully ignore, any and all evidence that proves him wrong.

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You keep saying that everyone is lying. Behe, Spetner. I think the dialogue is not on that low a level.
I do? Where do I say that?

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(Russell: ) Forgive me, but the two ballgames [postmodernism and thinking the mere statement of an alternate view renders it equally valid] look pretty similar to me.
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(Avo: ) Oh,yeah? Well then our problems are solved. NDE is true for you, and young earth creation is true for scordova, and a new-age pantheistic consciousness god for me - and we're all correct.
'nuff said.

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(Avo: ) I have wondered this, and I don't have the answer. Look, ...a human being is floating in the endless black without a compass or coordinate.
And there are two kinds of people in this world. A tiny minority who have noticed this, and the rest who haven't thought about it.
Quote
(Russell: ) Now, don't tell me; let me guess: which category does Avocreationist fall into? And is one's opinion of ID, or creationism in general, correlated with which group one falls into?
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(Avo: ) No. Not at all. You asked me an ultimate truth-type question, and I gave you the straight dope. We're in dire straights here.
Of all the ways people bisect the human population  into us vs. them, I think perhaps the most pernicious is "the tiny enlightened minority" vs. "the benighted masses".

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(Avo: )Evidence for a disembodied intelligence or a 'spiritual' aspect to reality - there's more than you might think but there's just no time.
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(Annie: )"The sun'll come out
Tomorrow...


--------------
Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
jeannot



Posts: 1201
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 18 2006,07:11   

:06-->
Quote (avocationist @ Feb. 17 2006,20:06)
She says ID is unscientific because-
"First, it requires a programmer that could be supernatural, which is not falsifiable,"

And so this is a kind of circle that is going on. If the scientist decides that evidence simply cannot point to the supernatural, even indirectly, then what are we to do if our universe was indeed caused by an intelligence or self-existing entity? Science would forever bar itself from discovering truth.

You don't quite understand what "falsifiable" means.

It doesn't mean we cannot prove the existence of a supernatural, it means that we cannot disprove (falsify) it.

Examples: if we find some clear hidden message in our Junk DNA (a paragraph from the Genesis or whatever), if we find this kind of message written on the rocks of Mars... these could be seen as evidence of God.
However, you will never provide a natural fact that could disprove the existence of a supernatural. Therefore your theory involving a supernatural (ID) is not falsifiable because absolutely anything could support it.

BTW, I'm not a woman. Jean is a French masculine name, Jeannot is a common nickname (like Johnny for John).  ;)

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 18 2006,07:54   

Quote
Russ, how could [Dawkins] have done the calculation and then said it would happen from time to time and be nothing to write home about?
I have to say that, since I don't play bridge, when I read The Blind Watchmaker, I more or less substituted "royal flush" for "perfect hand of bridge", took his point, and moved on. I didn't realize that, by pure logic, I could have there and then deduced that he was:

EITHER
(1) completely clueless about probability,
OR
(2) intentionally lying  through his teeth,

in which case I would have immediately put aside his book and  picked up a totally objective and absolutely credible author like Spetner.

You don't sense just a trace of egg on your face over this? Or  - to switch metaphors - how dead does this horse have to be before you ask me to stop beating it?

--------------
Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 18 2006,08:16   

or - more to the point - before you abandon your efforts at CPR?

--------------
Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
Russell



Posts: 1082
Joined: April 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 18 2006,10:25   

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(avo: ) You keep saying that everyone is lying. Behe, Spetner. I think the dialogue is not on that low a level.
Quote
(Russell: ) I do? Where do I say that?
Was it not you, come to think of it, who thought Dawkins had to be (A) incompetent or (B) dishonest?
Seeing that Dawkins was, in fact, right and Spetner was, in fact, wrong - I at least grant Spetner the possibility of being "not exactly a straight-talking guy".

--------------
Must... not... scratch... mosquito bite.

  
avocationist



Posts: 173
Joined: Feb. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,08:10   

Russ,

I'm finding your reaction to the bridge hand question pretty unsupportable, way over the top.

We did not miss the point. Dawkins made a simple statement  of chance and probability that was false, and he made it precisely to illustrate the point that it failed to illustrate. It illustrated indeed the opposite. His example if anything strengthens the argument he was trying to refute. Since the calculation is not one of very advanced math, and since Dawkins should certainly have spent a fair amount of time pondering exactly what chance can and cannot do, I find it pretty odd.

I cannot understand your calling it a ridiculous technicality. Dawkins gave the scenario and it doesn't work. Someone does the calculations and that is a ridiculous technicality? So it is fine to talk in terms of big numbers, and in terms of people not having a good instinct for really big numbers, and to use the really big number (time) to prove that improbable events, given enough time, will occur - but to actually calculate the probability is a ridiculous technicality?

I don't see a 3rd possibility to the two I mentioned.

Jeannot,

I see your point. But what are we to do if evidence does point to design. We can leave it at that without delving into what you call the supernatural (which does not exist in my book).
If design = supernatural, and supernatural= nonscientific then we have a problem if evidence points toward design.

If the supernatural can be neither proved nor disproved, does that mean physical things cannot demonstrate design?

Quote

You cannot point to complexity and say...."this is designed".
May we can. Maybe we live in a coherent and comprehensible universe after all.

Puck,

Yes, everyone knows a watch is designed, but that is not the only reason we can infer it. We could find strange objects and know they were designed. If Mt. Rushmore in the future loses its discernable features then of course it no longer functions as an example of design, any more than a dead and decaying cell would be.

  
JonF



Posts: 634
Joined: Feb. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Feb. 19 2006,08:40   

Quote (avocationist @ Feb. 19 2006,14:10)
But what are we to do if evidence does point to design.

We'll look at that issue if and when someone comes up with some evidence that points to design.

  
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