Joined: April 2007
|Quote (Bob O'H @ Oct. 23 2019,09:37)|
|Quote (DiEb @ Oct. 22 2019,06:40)|
|A Single-Couple Human Origin is Possible|
Ola Hössjer, Ann GaugerOla Hössjer, Ann Gauger
The problem of inferring history from genetic data is complex and underdetermined; there are many possible scenarios that would explain the same data. It can be made more tractable by making reasonable simplifications to the model, but it is continually important to remember what has been demonstrated and what is merely a parsimonious working assumption. In this paper we have chosen to model the demographic ancestry of humanity using the simplest of assumptions, with a homogeneous population whose size can vary over time. All other assumptions such as the mutation rates were standard, and no natural selection was in operation. Using a previously published backwards simulation method and some newly developed and faster algorithms, we run our single-couple origin model of humanity and compare the results to allele frequency spectra and linkage disequilibrium statistics from current genetic data. We show that a single-couple origin of humanity as recent as 500kya is consistent with data. With only minor modifications of our parsimonious model assumptions, we suggest that a single-couple origin 100kya, or more recently, is possible.
Adam and Eve! I have not read the article yet, so I do not know whether the insertion of an apple is necessary.
They simulate these two scenarios:
|Scenario 1 A single couple 100,000 generations ago (about 2mya) having zero heterozygosity (identical homozygous chromosomes), grows rapidly to a population of 10,000 people, then grows slowly and linearly to 16,000 people near the present.|
Scenario 2 A single couple 25,000 generations ago (about 500kya) having primordial heterozygosity of 0.012,5 grows rapidly to a population of 16,000 people, then holds steady
So they are assuming if you live anywhere larger than a small town, most of the people you live with are imaginary.
16000 vs 7.53 billion is 99.9998% error.
6000 vs 4.5 billion is 99.9999% error.
So right on message.
"Creationists think everything Genesis says is true. I don't even think Phil Collins is a good drummer." --J. Carr
"I suspect that the English grammar books where you live are outdated" --G. Gaulin