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k.e Posts: 1948 Joined: Mar. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,07:55    Holy crap     Quote Maybe if we ask him what happens when you warm up foggy air - does it get “wetter” or “drier”? When you can explain your answer you’ll stop waving that chart around and your ignorant comrades will stop applauding you for it. The saddest thing is that must be people who post on ATBC that know it’s wrong but they won’t point it out. And the moisture in the cold foggy air? Where did it come from?....tch evaporation from the cold foggy marina of course .....due to the cold. Bwhahahahahahaha Dave indulges in a little projection, he must have run out of Cheesy Poofs.     Quote When you I can explain  your my answer  you'll I'll stop waving that chart around and  your my ignorant comrades will stop applauding you me for it. The saddest thing is that [there] must be people who post on  ATBC UD that know it’s wrong but they  we  won't can't point it out.. *Sob ..sniffle..boohoo*...trashes through bin for empty Cheesy Poof bags and licks out the insides -------------- The conservative has but little to fear from the man whose reason is the servant of his passions, but let him beware of him in whom reason has become the greatest and most terrible of the passions.These are the wreckers of outworn empires and civilisations, doubters, disintegrators, deicides.Haldane

franky172 Posts: 160 Joined: Jan. 2007 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,08:08    I made thew following reply 2 times in this thread (http://www.uncommondescent.com/archives/2065), and made one inquiry as to why it is not appearing; but I have yet to see it. According to this article (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?sec=health&res=940DE7D6163AF930A35752C0A96E948260), there are about 3 mass murders in the US per month.  So the odds of any 2 happening on a specified day are: (3,2) 1/30*1/30*29/30 or about 0.32 % The odds of any two happening on any day are: (2,1) 1/30*29/30, or about 6%. That's assuming my rusty combinatorics are still correct...

Faid Posts: 1143 Joined: Mar. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,08:47    Quote Doug: you would have us believe that science is only about exterior surfaces and that we should all just sit down and shut up and listen to the experts tell us to go ahead and marry men to men and tell our kids that it doesn’t matter because the muslim religion is just as good as the one that we have here in america so don’t worry because there is no heaven anyway, unless you’re budhist or muslim, in which case there might be, but if you burn our flag, it makes you cool like all the scientists who claim that all we are is a temporary agglomeration of atoms held together with organic vegetables and defended by vegetarian hippies. You just don’t get it. ...Now that was Art. -------------- A look into DAVE HAWKINS' sense of honesty: "The truth is that ALL mutations REDUCE information" "...mutations can add information to a genome.  And remember, I have never said that this is not possible."

k.e Posts: 1948 Joined: Mar. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,09:01    Quote (Faid @ Feb. 15 2007,16:47) Quote Doug: you would have us believe that science is only about exterior surfaces and that we should all just sit down and shut up and listen to the experts tell us to go ahead and marry men to men and tell our kids that it doesn’t matter because the muslim religion is just as good as the one that we have here in america so don’t worry because there is no heaven anyway, unless you’re budhist or muslim, in which case there might be, but if you burn our flag, it makes you cool like all the scientists who claim that all we are is a temporary agglomeration of atoms held together with organic vegetables and defended by vegetarian hippies. You just don’t get it. ...Now that was Art. Well at least he can tap dance...snicker -------------- The conservative has but little to fear from the man whose reason is the servant of his passions, but let him beware of him in whom reason has become the greatest and most terrible of the passions.These are the wreckers of outworn empires and civilisations, doubters, disintegrators, deicides.Haldane

deadman_932 Posts: 3094 Joined: May 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,09:06    Prediction: Dave"StuporScot"Tard will do a bit of Googling, realize how DENSE he truly is, then the whole matter will be swept under his crumb-strewn rug while he opens a fresh bag of comforting Cheesy Poofs. -------------- AtBC Award for Thoroughness in the Face of Creationism

Zachriel Posts: 2723 Joined: Sep. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,09:17    DaveScot   Quote For poor little Zach on ATBC... Sorry Zach. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas too, Zach, but like CO2 it isn’t a pollutant. Um, you misrepresented your own statement and my response. This is the exchange: DaveScot   Quote [CO2] isn’t harmful to health unless it becomes such a large percentage of what you’re breathing there’s not enough oxygen left ... Zachriel   Quote That is incorrect. Excessive CO2 can be a problem even in an oxygen-rich environment. The condition is called Hypercapnia. The primary metabolic problem is blood acidosis. Symtoms range from flushing and irregular heartbeat to disorientation, convulsions, unconsciousness and death. Closed environments, such as the space station, scrub the air of CO2. You made a specific statement concerning the concentration of CO2 and its effect on health. That statement was incorrect. You compound the error by claiming that I stated that CO2 was a "pollutant". I did not. (Whether it is considered a "pollutant" depends on the definition chosen and that may depend on the environment.) Instead of simply admitting the error, you misrepresent the exchange. It appears being seen as right is more important to you than being right. -------------- You never step on the same tard twice—for it's not the same tard and you're not the same person.

Faid Posts: 1143 Joined: Mar. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,09:21    Haha, from the "Islam's a disease and I'm the cure" thread: Quote I have enjoyed your posts here but I’m sorry some of these comments are just plain offensive. Too bad. One of the consequences of frank exchange of views is offending someone who doesn’t agree with you. And, also, FREE exchange of views... But it seems Dave thought a bit of his "peanut gallery" and their poor irony meters, before writing that down. How thoughtful.  :D And just in case you were wondering what the he11 Islam-bashing has to do with ID, Dave clarifies: Quote May I remind you that UD has a worldwide audience and not all of us share these America-centric views. Not all Americans share these views. But just as an aside here’s a breakdown of UD traffic by country. I have a real-time report broken down into scores of countries but no way of cutting & pasting so here are the top 4 by percenage: USA 80% Canada 3% Great Britain 3% Austrailia 2% Almost 90% of our traffic comes from the 4 western nations most closely allied against Islamic terrorism. Just a small sample of the kind of astonishing reasonal correlation and scientific deduction that awaits us, when (HAH! ) ID revolutionizes science. -------------- A look into DAVE HAWKINS' sense of honesty: "The truth is that ALL mutations REDUCE information" "...mutations can add information to a genome.  And remember, I have never said that this is not possible."

Zachriel Posts: 2723 Joined: Sep. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,09:24    Quote (Zachriel @ Feb. 15 2007,09:17) DaveScot     Quote For poor little Zach on ATBC... Sorry Zach. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas too, Zach, but like CO2 it isn’t a pollutant. Um, you misrepresented your own statement and my response. However, DaveScot was correct that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is not a direct threat to human health. Nevertheless, his statement was incorrect. CO2 in high concentrations is harmful regardless of the oxygen levels. -------------- You never step on the same tard twice—for it's not the same tard and you're not the same person.

Alan Fox Posts: 1556 Joined: Aug. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,09:32    From this comment, I followed the link to CO² Science, They list their staff: Chairman, Craig D. Idso President, Sherwood B. Idso Vice president, Keith E. Idso Operations manager, Julene M. Idso Just seemed an odd coincidence that so many people called Idso work on CO²

Alan Fox Posts: 1556 Joined: Aug. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,09:36    Ah!

Kristine Posts: 3061 Joined: Sep. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,10:15    Thanks, Reciprocating Bill, I completely spaced Chomsky. (And I know jack about Bickerton. ) What’s so troubling about the Islam thread is, while Europe went through its colossal loss of nerve and slid into the Dark Ages, Muslim nations took of the mantle of science and innovation and preserved the writings of the ancient Greeks and Romans, thus laying the foundation for the Renaissance (via Europe’s Crusades). Historically, Jews have fared better in Muslim nations than in Christian ones (though we’re not seeing that today). However, at some point it became a widespread belief that one could not do science and worship Allah, and while the West saw its scientific and literary rebirth the Islamic countries declined. Now we are seeing people who, for some reason that escapes me, confuse methodological naturalism with philosophical naturalism and must retake this country for Christ (or take it for Allah, or Scientology, or whatever) and wage battles on behalf of God as if, assuming these entities exist, their Christ and their God are helpless ninnies. Why did Europe need everyone in the Middle East to be Christian (and as it was, Crusaders slaughtered many Arab Christians) and why does anyone need to be surrounded by people who believe in a Designer that apparently lets evolution toddle along for some time, and then yells “Stop!” and throws together a flagellum? I have no problem with theistic evolutionists—but they tend to be Jews, Hindus, and Buddhists rather than Christians and Muslims these days. Does it take an atheist to point out how theologically unsound this is, how—well—idolatrous all of this ID crap is? -------------- Which came first: the shimmy, or the hip? AtBC Poet Laureate "I happen to think that this prerequisite criterion of empirical evidence is itself not empirical." - Clive "Damn you. This means a trip to the library. Again." -- fnxtr

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,10:15    Quote (Alan Fox @ Feb. 15 2007,09:36) Ah! Hahaha. Follow the money. UD----->DI ----> Christian reconstructionism CO² Science-------> Big Oil. Red state Tards are so easy to dupe. -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

Mike PSS Posts: 428 Joined: Sep. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,10:16    Quote (deadman_932 @ Feb. 15 2007,10:06) Prediction: Dave"StuporScot"Tard will do a bit of Googling, realize how DENSE he truly is, then the whole matter will be swept under his crumb-strewn rug while he opens a fresh bag of comforting Cheesy Poofs. I try and use the double entendre every chance I get.

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,10:22    Momo shakes the big tent: http://www.uncommondescent.com/archives/2070#comment-91692 Quote mohammed.husain 02/15/2007 10:51 am You guys sound a lot like Richard Dawkins, Sam Harris and the loonies that you all criticize so much for their fanatical hatred of religion. It’s truly ironic. Even if we speak of histories, the history of the Christian West is one filled with violence. We have the inquisition, (lets not forget that the Jews fled to Muslim countries for refuge then), we have the sectarian wars of europe, we have the years of colonization, we have nuclear war, the holocaust and the atom bomb (which together contribute to the bloodiest and most destructive century ever known to man), and now these bogus wars on terror, which are really a guise for expanding US hegemony. Given all that, I am mature enough to distinguish between religion and its uses for various ends. And this isnt always easy given that Christianity has been complicit in a lot of the aformentioned violence. All this I guess is easy to overlook, so long as the subject of attack is the other. Your understanding of Islam guys is childish. Knowing Iranians who fled the revolution doesnt count as knowing Muslims, unless they still practice Islam by the way. If you want to really learn something about Islam go to the largest Muslim organization in this country: ISNA. By the way, its led by a a woman. This is good - if they ban him, they're not inclusive. He didn't start the topic, so he's not trolling. They so want to tell him Jebus is real and Allah isn't, but ID can't tell you who the designer is (or what he does or if he is or if anything is designed or where stuff comes from). -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

Stephen Elliott Posts: 1776 Joined: Oct. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,11:07    Quote (Kristine @ Feb. 15 2007,10:15) Thanks, Reciprocating Bill, I completely spaced Chomsky. (And I know jack about Bickerton. ) What’s so troubling about the Islam thread is, while Europe went through its colossal loss of nerve and slid into the Dark Ages, Muslim nations took of the mantle of science and innovation and preserved the writings of the ancient Greeks and Romans, thus laying the foundation for the Renaissance (via Europe’s Crusades). Historically, Jews have fared better in Muslim nations than in Christian ones (though we’re not seeing that today). However, at some point it became a widespread belief that one could not do science and worship Allah, and while the West saw its scientific and literary rebirth the Islamic countries declined. Now we are seeing people who, for some reason that escapes me, confuse methodological naturalism with philosophical naturalism and must retake this country for Christ (or take it for Allah, or Scientology, or whatever) and wage battles on behalf of God as if, assuming these entities exist, their Christ and their God are helpless ninnies. Why did Europe need everyone in the Middle East to be Christian (and as it was, Crusaders slaughtered many Arab Christians) and why does anyone need to be surrounded by people who believe in a Designer that apparently lets evolution toddle along for some time, and then yells “Stop!” and throws together a flagellum? I have no problem with theistic evolutionists—but they tend to be Jews, Hindus, and Buddhists rather than Christians and Muslims these days. Does it take an atheist to point out how theologically unsound this is, how—well—idolatrous all of this ID crap is? I think that there is something very wrong with this post. Not sure what it is yet though. Question 1: When reffering to the "dark ages" what do you mean? Question 2: Muslim nations where the point of scientific/mathematical excelence once. What halted that? Question 3: What do you mean by Western Europe needing Eastern Europe/ or the middle East to be Christian? When was this and why? Your post has confused me.

phonon Posts: 396 Joined: Nov. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,11:48    Hi, I know this may be OT, but I'm just waiting for UD to post something about this. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v445/n7127/abs/nature05452.html   Quote A molecular information ratchet (abstract) Motor proteins and other biological machines are highly efficient at converting energy into directed motion and driving chemical systems away from thermodynamic equilibrium. But even though these biological structures have inspired the design of many molecules that mimic aspects of their behaviour artificial nanomachine systems operate almost exclusively by moving towards thermodynamic equilibrium, not away from it. Here we show that information about the location of a macrocycle in a rotaxane—a molecular ring threaded onto a molecular axle—can be used, on the input of light energy, to alter the kinetics of the shuttling of the macrocycle between two compartments on the axle. For an ensemble of such molecular machines, the macrocycle distribution is directionally driven away from its equilibrium value without ever changing the relative binding affinities of the ring for the different parts of the axle. The selective transport of particles between two compartments by brownian motion in this way bears similarities to the hypothetical task performed without an energy input by a 'demon' in Maxwell's famous thought experiment. Our observations demonstrate that synthetic molecular machines can operate by an information ratchet mechanism in which knowledge of a particle's position is used to control its transport away from equilibrium. Of course, ID predicted every bit of this. I have no doubt in that. I just think it's cool, because I've always viewed life itself as a complicated mess of chemical reactions, (among molecular machines, if you will) that uses energy inputs from the environment to stay far away from equilibrium. When you reach equilibrium, you're dead. I think this Nature paper is pretty cool because it mimics that aspect of life. hehe, and I guess ID predicted that this thing would "violate the second law of thermodynamics." I want to see what WAD and DT make of the opening sentences.     Quote Maxwell originally conceived his thought experiment, which leads to a non-equilibrium distribution of thermal energy (temperature demon) or brownian particles (pressure demon), to illustrate the statistical nature of the second law of thermodynamics. But modern synthetic chemistry allows us to consider his idea from a very different perspective: rather than test the second law by attempting to reduce entropy in an isolated system, how can information transfer between a particle and a 'gatekeeper' be accomplished non-adiabatically to form a mechanism for a working brownian motion nanomachine? Come on, WAD or DT, explain how ID predicts how the Intelligent Designer (peace be upon him) pushes the little rotaxane molecule around. Hmm, maybe the Intelligent Designer (peace be upon him) is responsible for Brownian motion? I mean, what is energy? What are forces? Do they have inalienable rights? It really makes you think. -------------- With most men, unbelief in one thing springs from blind belief in another. - Georg Christoph Lichtenberg To do just the opposite is also a form of imitation. - Georg Christoph Lichtenberg

dhogaza Posts: 525 Joined: Feb. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,12:27    tribune7 accidently says something ironic in the islam intolerance thread: Quote OK, let’s take Islam out of it. Is it wrong to lie? (earlier he claimed that Muslims feel free to lie to Christians.) Well ... yes, it's wrong to lie.  Please pass along the message that Lying For Jesus is WRONG to DaveTard, Dembski, Behe, Salvador (especially!) , tribune7 ...

Kristine Posts: 3061 Joined: Sep. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,13:11    Quote I think that there is something very wrong with this post. Not sure what it is yet though. Question 1: When reffering to the "dark ages" what do you mean? Question 2: Muslim nations where the point of scientific/mathematical excelence once. What halted that? Question 3: What do you mean by Western Europe needing Eastern Europe/ or the middle East to be Christian? When was this and why? Your post has confused me. 1. The "Middle Ages" between 450-1000 AD. Petrarch, I think, dates it here. 2. In part, the devastation of the Crusades; the growing influence of radicalized Caliphs and mullahs; war with the Ottoman Empire; loss of lands to Europe; and a whole bunch of other factors. My point was, this coincided with a growing anti-intellectualism that was out of keeping with Islam's achievements and that this holds a lesson for America today. 3. Europe invading the Middle East with the intention of conquering Jerusalem for Christ, and slaughtering Muslims (and Arab Christians) sounds like somebody needed Christian dominance and control of the Middle East. Wasn't that what the Crusades were about? I don't think I mentioned Eastern Europe, unless you're talking about the Ottoman Empire. -------------- Which came first: the shimmy, or the hip? AtBC Poet Laureate "I happen to think that this prerequisite criterion of empirical evidence is itself not empirical." - Clive "Damn you. This means a trip to the library. Again." -- fnxtr

Mike PSS Posts: 428 Joined: Sep. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,13:46    Quote (Kristine @ Feb. 15 2007,14:11)   Quote I think that there is something very wrong with this post. Not sure what it is yet though. Question 1: When reffering to the "dark ages" what do you mean? Question 2: Muslim nations where the point of scientific/mathematical excelence once. What halted that? Question 3: What do you mean by Western Europe needing Eastern Europe/ or the middle East to be Christian? When was this and why? Your post has confused me. 1. The "Middle Ages" between 450-1000 AD. Petrarch, I think, dates it here. 2. In part, the devastation of the Crusades; the growing influence of radicalized Caliphs and mullahs; war with the Ottoman Empire; loss of lands to Europe; and a whole bunch of other factors. My point was, this coincided with a growing anti-intellectualism that was out of keeping with Islam's achievements and that this holds a lesson for America today. 3. Europe invading the Middle East with the intention of conquering Jerusalem for Christ, and slaughtering Muslims (and Arab Christians) sounds like somebody needed Christian dominance and control of the Middle East. Wasn't that what the Crusades were about? I don't think I mentioned Eastern Europe, unless you're talking about the Ottoman Empire. Substitute Seljuk Turks for Ottomans and you are more in the historical ballpark of the Dark Ages and Early Middle Ages. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seljuk_Turks Ottomans came later.  They grew out of the rump of the Byzantines then incorporated the Seljuk Empire and later most of the middle east and Balkans. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_empire http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ottoman_small_animation.gif

Stephen Elliott Posts: 1776 Joined: Oct. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,14:16    Quote (Kristine @ Feb. 15 2007,13:11) Quote I think that there is something very wrong with this post. Not sure what it is yet though. Question 1: When reffering to the "dark ages" what do you mean? Question 2: Muslim nations where the point of scientific/mathematical excelence once. What halted that? Question 3: What do you mean by Western Europe needing Eastern Europe/ or the middle East to be Christian? When was this and why? Your post has confused me. 1. The "Middle Ages" between 450-1000 AD. Petrarch, I think, dates it here. 2. In part, the devastation of the Crusades; the growing influence of radicalized Caliphs and mullahs; war with the Ottoman Empire; loss of lands to Europe; and a whole bunch of other factors. My point was, this coincided with a growing anti-intellectualism that was out of keeping with Islam's achievements and that this holds a lesson for America today. 3. Europe invading the Middle East with the intention of conquering Jerusalem for Christ, and slaughtering Muslims (and Arab Christians) sounds like somebody needed Christian dominance and control of the Middle East. Wasn't that what the Crusades were about? I don't think I mentioned Eastern Europe, unless you're talking about the Ottoman Empire. Sorry for being so pedantic. I just do not think the church is the root of all evil. People are the root of evil and they/we will use any excuse. "Christian" nations have used Christianity as an excuse for devilment. Atheist countries have just used a different excuse.

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,14:28    Quote (Stephen Elliott @ Feb. 15 2007,14:16) Sorry for being so pedantic. I just do not think the church is the root of all evil. People are the root of evil and they/we will use any excuse. "Christian" nations have used Christianity as an excuse for devilment. Atheist countries have just used a different excuse. Actually, I think it's a case of individuals being evil. But we are to some extent products of our environments and so the environment is a factor. -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,14:32    Dippy Joe doesn't spare the blue cheese in his word salad: http://www.uncommondescent.com/archives/2076#comment-91775 Quote Jack Krebs: I need to know about the physical nature of my body so I can take care of myself, But that can only be accomplished if one understands ones origins. IOW reality has demonstrated that it matters a great deal to our understanding whether or not that which is being investigated arose via intentional design or via nature, operating freely. Have fun with this, Zach. -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

Kristine Posts: 3061 Joined: Sep. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,14:47    Quote Sorry for being so pedantic. I just do not think the church is the root of all evil. People are the root of evil and they/we will use any excuse. "Christian" nations have used Christianity as an excuse for devilment. Atheist countries have just used a different excuse. Oh, no, I don’t believe the church is the root of all evil either, shockingly enough. That’s way too simplistic. Look at the way the ancient Egyptians/Nubians/Greeks/Spartans/Romans treated each other (and how Rome treated Christians at first). Yuck-o-rama! I am no fan of ancient Rome. I’m a little cross-eyed today due to a low-level migraine, so I make a brainfahrt (“Oh, now the girl claims to have a headache! and conflate dates/events/cultures in a way I shouldn’t, kick me good. There also were a whole cheese-poofy ton of secular reasons for the Crusades, anyway. And waddaya think I claim to be, a saint? -------------- Which came first: the shimmy, or the hip? AtBC Poet Laureate "I happen to think that this prerequisite criterion of empirical evidence is itself not empirical." - Clive "Damn you. This means a trip to the library. Again." -- fnxtr

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,15:15    Challenge to UD Hey you champignons champions of free inquiry: PZ has listed the banned few from pharyngula and their offenses here: http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/plonk.php Can you provide a similar list? Please note I only have 4 gigs of RAM. Thanks in advance. -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

steve_h Posts: 544 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,15:30    Quote (franky172 @ Feb. 15 2007,15:08) So the odds of any 2 happening on a specified day are: (3,2) 1/30*1/30*29/30 or about 0.32 % The odds of any two happening on any day are: (2,1) 1/30*29/30, or about 6%. That's assuming my rusty combinatorics are still correct... I get a different result (9.8%) for the second calculation by using 1 - odds of all happening on different days.  However, my combinatorics never reached the dizzying height of 'rusty', so I could be wrong.

franky172 Posts: 160 Joined: Jan. 2007 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,15:53    Quote (steve_h @ Feb. 15 2007,15:30) Quote (franky172 @ Feb. 15 2007,15:08) So the odds of any 2 happening on a specified day are: (3,2) 1/30*1/30*29/30 or about 0.32 % The odds of any two happening on any day are: (2,1) 1/30*29/30, or about 6%. That's assuming my rusty combinatorics are still correct... I get a different result (9.8%) for the second calculation by using 1 - odds of all happening on different days.  However, my combinatorics never reached the dizzying height of 'rusty', so I could be wrong. A quick simulation showed that your result is correct. The odds of any two happening on the same day are approximately: 1-1*29/30*28/30 = 0.0978 or, also excluding the case when three happen on the same day: 1-1*29/30*28/30-1/30*1/30 = 0.0967 which is also: (3,2)*1/30*29/30   (because there are three ways to acheive this, any one mass murder could be the 29/30) <b>not</b> (2,1)*1/30*29/30   which I originally had.  Thanks!

stephenWells Posts: 127 Joined: April 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,16:15    Quote (franky172 @ Feb. 15 2007,15:53) Quote (steve_h @ Feb. 15 2007,15:30) Quote (franky172 @ Feb. 15 2007,15:08) So the odds of any 2 happening on a specified day are: (3,2) 1/30*1/30*29/30 or about 0.32 % The odds of any two happening on any day are: (2,1) 1/30*29/30, or about 6%. That's assuming my rusty combinatorics are still correct... I get a different result (9.8%) for the second calculation by using 1 - odds of all happening on different days.  However, my combinatorics never reached the dizzying height of 'rusty', so I could be wrong. A quick simulation showed that your result is correct. The odds of any two happening on the same day are approximately: 1-1*29/30*28/30 = 0.0978 or, also excluding the case when three happen on the same day: 1-1*29/30*28/30-1/30*1/30 = 0.0967 which is also: (3,2)*1/30*29/30   (because there are three ways to acheive this, any one mass murder could be the 29/30) <b>not</b> (2,1)*1/30*29/30   which I originally had.  Thanks! You realize that if this little exchange had happened on UD: i) DaveScot would have calculated a probability of 95% for three murders every day; ii) all posters pointing out the error would be banned; iii) he'd realize the error, erase the thread, and calculate a probability of 10^-350; iv) this would then be evidence for Intelligent Murder theory.

stevestory Posts: 13407 Joined: Oct. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,16:37    Quote (stephenWells @ Feb. 15 2007,17:15) You realize that if this little exchange had happened on UD: i) DaveScot would have calculated a probability of 95% for three murders every day; ii) all posters pointing out the error would be banned; iii) he'd realize the error, erase the thread, and calculate a probability of 10^-350; iv) this would then be evidence for Intelligent Murder theory.

k.e Posts: 1948 Joined: Mar. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,17:57    Quote (Richardthughes @ Feb. 15 2007,23:15) Challenge to UD Hey you champignons champions of free inquiry: PZ has listed the banned few from pharyngula and their offenses here: http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/plonk.php Can you provide a similar list? Please note I only have 4 gigs of RAM. Thanks in advance. YHUCK , THE PEANUT GALLERY MADE A JOKE.....VERY %$#@%^& FUNNY!!! WE DON'T NEED NO STEENKIN' RECORDS OF WHO WAS BANNED AND WHY. ARE YOU BANNED? DON'T KNOW? DON'T CARE? WANNA FIND OUT? ....WELL SEE OUR LIST OF TARDS  GENIUISESES..ES (I TOOK LATIN FOR 2 YEARS AND THATS THE PLURAL .....HOMO) OF WHO ACTUALLY POSTS AND IF YOUR NOT ON IT ...YOUR OFF IT! RICHARD IS NO LONGER WITH US - dt -------------- The conservative has but little to fear from the man whose reason is the servant of his passions, but let him beware of him in whom reason has become the greatest and most terrible of the passions.These are the wreckers of outworn empires and civilisations, doubters, disintegrators, deicides.Haldane

ofro Posts: 19 Joined: Jan. 2007 (Permalink) Posted: Feb. 15 2007,18:08    Quote (franky172 @ Feb. 15 2007,08:08) I made thew following reply 2 times in this thread (http://www.uncommondescent.com/archives/2065), and made one inquiry as to why it is not appearing; but I have yet to see it. Which is better:  to get blocked right away or to get insulted after having been delayed for several hours (http://www.uncommondescent.com/archives/2065#comment-91366">insulted?

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