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  Topic: Difference between Global Warming Science, and global warming politics?< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  
Lou FCD



Posts: 5455
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,13:34   

Same project, different finding, from the Beeb.

Quote

Humans almost became two species
By Paul Rincon
Science reporter, BBC News

Ancient humans started down the path of evolving into two separate species before merging back into a single population, a genetic study suggests.

The genetic split in Africa resulted in distinct populations that lived in isolation for as much as 100,000 years, the scientists say.

This could have been caused by arid conditions driving a wedge between humans in eastern and southern Africa.

Details have been published in the American Journal of Human Genetics.


--------------
“Why do creationists have such a hard time with commas?

Linky“. ~ Steve Story, Legend

   
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,13:46   

Quote (BWE @ April 24 2008,18:27)
[SNIP]

1) If the political aim of radical evolutionists is to... Wait a minute.

What is the political aim of radical evolutionists? Is it substantially different than one or more of the stated political aims of Thomas Jefferson?

[SNIP]

I was wondering when someone would ask him that. Maybe we could bring up his "scepticism about the mechanisms of evolutionary change" as well. We're bound to get a wealth of content free assertions from that.

Anyway BWE, as we both know he'll just use this as another excuse to avoid providing any evidenciary justification for his claim that "climate tipping points = crapola".

Of course we all know climate tipping points = crapola" because they are incovenient for his political biases and thus, based on the projection and evasion we have all come to know and love from Obliviot, MUST by force of his OPINION*, be because of the horrible nefarious biases of those evil liberals/atheists/evolutionists/whatevers.

Louis

*which is just as good as anyone else's dontcherknow, intersting how anti-intellectual, know nothing religious right wing wankers seize on the relativist rhetoric of anti-intellectual pompous academic left wing wankers isn't it?

--------------
Bye.

  
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,13:52   

Quote (Lou FCD @ April 24 2008,19:19)
Touching on the effects of change in climate on human diversity, comes this story from CNN.

 
Quote
WASHINGTON (AP)  -- Human beings may have had a brush with extinction 70,000 years ago, an extensive genetic study suggests.

The human population at that time was reduced to small isolated groups in Africa, apparently because of drought, according to an analysis released Thursday.

The report notes that a separate study by researchers at Stanford University estimated the number of early humans may have shrunk as low as 2,000 before numbers began to expand again in the early Stone Age.


 
Quote
Eastern Africa experienced a series of severe droughts between 135,000 and 90,000 years ago, and researchers said this climatological shift may have contributed to the population changes, dividing into small, isolated groups that developed independently.

Paleontologist Meave Leakey, a Genographic adviser, said: "Who would have thought that as recently as 70,000 years ago, extremes of climate had reduced our population to such small numbers that we were on the very edge of extinction?"


.pdf of the paper is here, from the American Journal of Human Genetics.  (ETA: I think this paper goes with my next comment, but I'm not seeing where it connects to this comment yet...)

Scary.

[Obliviot mode]

All lies. Evolutionist, liberal, green, beardy weirdy, conspiratorial, alarmist, finger pointing lies every word.

Why? Because i say so and my opinion is different and my opinion is equal to theirs despite the fact that my opinion is based on fuck all knowledge of the matters at hand and an enormous quantity of ignorant bias etcoodles of evidence which for some reason I cannot quite manage to provide right now or ever and so I will try very very hard to avoid doing this because I'm a troll.

[/Obliviot mode]

How did I do? Personally I reckon it's indistinguishable from the real thing.

Louis

--------------
Bye.

  
BWE



Posts: 1902
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,14:03   

Quote (Louis @ April 24 2008,13:46)
Quote (BWE @ April 24 2008,18:27)
[SNIP]

1) If the political aim of radical evolutionists is to... Wait a minute.

What is the political aim of radical evolutionists? Is it substantially different than one or more of the stated political aims of Thomas Jefferson?

[SNIP]

I was wondering when someone would ask him that. Maybe we could bring up his "scepticism about the mechanisms of evolutionary change" as well. We're bound to get a wealth of content free assertions from that.

Anyway BWE, as we both know he'll just use this as another excuse to avoid providing any evidenciary justification for his claim that "climate tipping points = crapola".

Of course we all know climate tipping points = crapola" because they are incovenient for his political biases and thus, based on the projection and evasion we have all come to know and love from Obliviot, MUST by force of his OPINION*, be because of the horrible nefarious biases of those evil liberals/atheists/evolutionists/whatevers.

Louis

*which is just as good as anyone else's dontcherknow, intersting how anti-intellectual, know nothing religious right wing wankers seize on the relativist rhetoric of anti-intellectual pompous academic left wing wankers isn't it?

Sounds a bit like a post-modern reading of Kuhn.

--------------
Who said that ev'ry wish would be heard and answered
When wished on the morning star
Somebody thought of that, and someone believed it
Look what it's done so far

The Daily Wingnut

   
Lou FCD



Posts: 5455
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,14:07   

Quote (Louis @ April 24 2008,14:52)
How did I do? Personally I reckon it's indistinguishable from the real thing.

Louis

A fine imitation, but what do you think about the paper and how it relates to this thread?

--------------
“Why do creationists have such a hard time with commas?

Linky“. ~ Steve Story, Legend

   
Lou FCD



Posts: 5455
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,18:16   

Proposed cure worse than disease

Quote
'Planetary sunshade' could strip ozone layer by 76%

   * 19:00 24 April 2008
   * NewScientist.com news service
   * Catherine Brahic

Planetary engineering projects to cool the planet could backfire quite spectacularly: a new model shows that a "sulphate sunshade" would punch huge holes through the ozone layer above the Arctic.

To make matters worse, it would also delay the full recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole by up to 70 years.

Pumping tiny sulphate particles into the atmosphere to create a sunshield that would keep the planet cool was first suggested as a solution to global warming by Edward Teller, a physicist was best known for his involvement in the development of the hydrogen bomb.

Simone Tilmes of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US, used computer models to see how a sulphate sunshade would affect the ozone layer, which protects us from harmful UV rays. She says it could have "a drastic impact".


Hey, here's an idea...

How 'bout we quit dumping tons of shit into the atmosphere, instead?

Oh wait.  That might reduce profits down into the billions of dollars.  What the hell was I thinking?

--------------
“Why do creationists have such a hard time with commas?

Linky“. ~ Steve Story, Legend

   
BWE



Posts: 1902
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,18:33   

that's the problem Lou, you weren't thinking.

--------------
Who said that ev'ry wish would be heard and answered
When wished on the morning star
Somebody thought of that, and someone believed it
Look what it's done so far

The Daily Wingnut

   
Assassinator



Posts: 479
Joined: Nov. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,18:37   

Quote (BWE @ April 24 2008,18:33)
that's the problem Lou, you weren't thinking.

No no no he díd think, and thát was the problem. Who needs thinking when you got the neo-cons ;)

  
Falk Macara



Posts: 11
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,21:29   

Quote (Lou FCD @ April 24 2008,18:16)
How 'bout we quit dumping tons of shit into the atmosphere, instead?

Oh wait.  That might reduce profits down into the billions of dollars.  What the hell was I thinking?

Before I start, I think the evidence for a significant anthropogenic factor in global climate change is overwhelming.  

But it isn't as simple as that.

The generation of massive financial profits at the expense of the environment, the very systems we require for our ongoing existance, is not driven by evil companes, evil CEO's or evil board members.  It's driven by the people who consume -- and demand to consume more of -- the output of these firms, and hang the costs of the externalities generated.

  
BWE



Posts: 1902
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 24 2008,23:40   

Quote (Falk Macara @ April 24 2008,21:29)
Quote (Lou FCD @ April 24 2008,18:16)
How 'bout we quit dumping tons of shit into the atmosphere, instead?

Oh wait.  That might reduce profits down into the billions of dollars.  What the hell was I thinking?

Before I start, I think the evidence for a significant anthropogenic factor in global climate change is overwhelming.  

But it isn't as simple as that.

The generation of massive financial profits at the expense of the environment, the very systems we require for our ongoing existance, is not driven by evil companes, evil CEO's or evil board members.  It's driven by the people who consume -- and demand to consume more of -- the output of these firms, and hang the costs of the externalities generated.

That's a bit of a problem as you note. It's going to be tough trying to figure out how so supply our consumption habits for an extended period of time.

I guess we'll need politicians who have access to accurate science if we want to have a prayer at all eh?

:)

--------------
Who said that ev'ry wish would be heard and answered
When wished on the morning star
Somebody thought of that, and someone believed it
Look what it's done so far

The Daily Wingnut

   
Erasmus, FCD



Posts: 6349
Joined: June 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,00:28   

Actually BWE we have to be prepared to feast upon our neighbor.




skeptic, this is why you are a fucking wanker.  your appeasement happy horseshit 'wait til the data are in' stupid juice is poison to that which real people hold sacred.  for the love of your gods man get a clue.

why in the hell would you doubt the existence of tipping points (or local non-equilibria).  You ever tried to grow ginseng in the desert, smart ass?

--------------
You're obviously illiterate as hell. Peach, bro.-FtK

Finding something hard to believe based on the evidence, is science.-JoeG

the odds of getting some loathsome taint are low-- Gordon E Mullings Manjack Heights Montserrat

I work on molecular systems with pathway charts and such.-Giggles

  
Reed



Posts: 274
Joined: Feb. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,00:41   

Quote (Falk Macara @ April 24 2008,19:29)
The generation of massive financial profits at the expense of the environment, the very systems we require for our ongoing existance, is not driven by evil companes, evil CEO's or evil board members.  It's driven by the people who consume -- and demand to consume more of -- the output of these firms, and hang the costs of the externalities generated.

This is absolutely true. However it doesn't mean nothing can be done. We cannot escape some impact at this point, but we can potentially affect how severe it is.

People cried bloody murder about limiting CFCs (unsurprisingly, many of the same people now say it's to expensive to do anything about AGW) but we did, and we are almost certainly better off for it, despite the costs. The cost of having no ozone layer would ultimately have been much greater.

This brings me to my big beef with the "all regulation is bad, let the market handle it" crowd (which overlaps very strongly with GW denial and it's lesser forms of "oh it's too expensive to do anything" and "oh maybe GW is a good thing".) Markets are inherently short sighted in this kind of situation. If you can make a product for $1 by polluting a lot, or $2 without polluting much, someone is going to go for the $1 method. Even if others want to do it clean (and there's plenty of decent, honest people in industry) they will have trouble competing. Never mind that it will eventually cost society as a whole $3 per item to clean up the resulting mess.

  
Falk Macara



Posts: 11
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,01:00   

Quote (BWE @ April 24 2008,23:40)
That's a bit of a problem as you note. It's going to be tough trying to figure out how so supply our consumption habits for an extended period of time.


At out current rates of consumption (and at our current rates of growth in consumption!), I think "Impossible" about covers it#.

[quote=ibid]I guess we'll need politicians who have access to accurate science if we want to have a prayer at all eh?[/quote]

Trouble there is that politicians are public servants, and can be replaced if they make unpopular decisions.

As has been mentioned in the fisheries thread, people have a pretty short time horizon.  If it means less money in the pocket today, most people will demand of their politicians (using slightly different langauge) that they should be able to utterly destroy the feedstock for their industry.

The solution isn't found in giving politicans better access to the science*, but in simultaneously getting better science, and providing better access to that science to the public in an accessable format.  This will (hopefully) include some degree of scientific literacy in the broader public.

As a bonus, you'd knock antiscience on the head.

#: Unless one of those godless, decietful, conspiring, evil scientists should come up with something dreadfully clever.  While I'm certain such a solution will eventually crop up, I'm not so sure it'll do so in a meaningful timeframe.

*: They've (and we've) already effectively unlimited access; and a politician that does the right but unpopular thing is, invariably, replaced by a populist rube who Just Doesn't Care.[/quote]
Hoping this works...

  
Falk Macara



Posts: 11
Joined: Mar. 2008

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,01:08   

Quote (Reed @ April 25 2008,00:41)
People cried bloody murder about limiting CFCs (unsurprisingly, many of the same people now say it's to expensive to do anything about AGW) but we did, and we are almost certainly better off for it, despite the costs. The cost of having no ozone layer would ultimately have been much greater.

This brings me to my big beef with the "all regulation is bad, let the market handle it" crowd (which overlaps very strongly with GW denial and it's lesser forms of "oh it's too expensive to do anything" and "oh maybe GW is a good thing".) Markets are inherently short sighted in this kind of situation. If you can make a product for $1 by polluting a lot, or $2 without polluting much, someone is going to go for the $1 method. Even if others want to do it clean (and there's plenty of decent, honest people in industry) they will have trouble competing. Never mind that it will eventually cost society as a whole $3 per item to clean up the resulting mess.

That's game theory.

The underlying problem here is a tragedy of the commons -- a vast amount of the resouces used in industry aren't actually acquired through the market.

You can use the market -- through (for example) emissions taxes -- to correct this.  

As for the Laissez-faire mob, well, they can get stuffed.  Regulation can, and does, work to increase weath and profitability: consider the benefits in reduction of risk to the foundation of business entities arising from required audited reporting.

Sorry for the double post, but I've not yet got an 'edit' option.

  
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,04:55   

Quote (Lou FCD @ April 24 2008,20:07)
Quote (Louis @ April 24 2008,14:52)
How did I do? Personally I reckon it's indistinguishable from the real thing.

Louis

A fine imitation, but what do you think about the paper and how it relates to this thread?

What do I think?

Hmmm, one of the tricky questions eh?! ;-)

First, the obivous caveat: It's not my field (obviously) so I do not have the perspective of the current state of the relevant literature needed to place it properly in context.

My initial impressions on reading it were that, although to my non-geneticist/anthropologist eyes it seemed well written and the evidence for their hypothesis was obviously obtained properly (from the little I know about sequencing/examining DNA etc), I (like the authors) would be cautious as advancing this as anything other than a starting point for a new hypothesis about the splits/dating of splits in early human populations. "More work needed", although that doesn't take away from how interesting this is at all.

For example the dates they obtained seem to me to come only from molecular clock data (someone please correct me if I missed something) which can be tricky, and need at least some calibration/correlation with other independant dating methods. Obviously that wasn't the point of this paper, but I thought I'd mention it as one of the first things I thought on reading it.

From the popular reading and brief forays into the primary lit I've done on the subject over the years I was already aware of the fact that there was a mtDNA demonstrated split in early H. sapiens. Although I wouldn't have remembered any dates for that split. This paper proposes that the split a lot earlier than previously thought. It also makes a good case for a more heterogenous migration of H. sapiens across Africa. However the authros are careful to point out that their data by no means proves their hypothesis, merely advance the possibility of a slightly different explanation to the one currently understood (i.e. more homogenous migration pattern, later split etc).

I would be really very careful about linking this paper to any "environmental" issues, especially modern ones. This paper is describing a genetic pattern within a modern population which might shed light on the past migrations of our early ancestors. If I were to call this a "speciation" (which it certainly is not, but bear with my layman's use of terms) then enviromental changes which seperate populations are part of the known mechanisms of "speciation". Environmental changes/conditions may well have been a causitive factor in the split shown in this paper, but I couldn't make that judgement based on this paper alone (and I haven't chased down the references it cites). I see you've also noted how it links with the news stories you mention.

LOL typical scientist, I ignored what you wrote and the news stories and went off and read the paper first! At this point in the post I went back to check what you and the news stories had written! My bad, my bad. Although I think what I've just said stands as a lay analysis of some aspects of the paper you link.

Having read the news stories I'd have to say that this is pretty typical media behaviour, exactly the kind I mentioned before. Some science somewhere mentions humans and environment and by the time it gets from the scientists who understand it to the news story it has passed through the eyes and brain of probably half a dozen people most of whom DON'T understand the science. Hence it is presented as a big deal/something it ain't. Incidentally this sort of thing is why I no longer read New Scientist, it's more media than science.

This paper certainly isn't newsworthy in the sense the media outlets quoted use it. Because it is slightly more technical than "Spot the Dog" the media wquote it as some revolutionary piece. As my PhD supervisor hammered into me: a proper persepctive on the literature is needed. We've known for many years that humans basically fall into two broad categories based on mtDNA studies (some Africans + everyone else). We've known for years that environmental changes are one of the causative mechanisms behind migrations and/or any resulting genetic divergence up to and including speciation. This paper refines some of our estimates, possibly even to the extent of placing the split in populations in a period of known environmental change, but it of itself is a step on the road, not the whole journey. I'd be a lot more cautious, mainly because I don't know enough about the field to make a proper judgement.

Fair?

Louis

--------------
Bye.

  
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,05:02   

Quote (Lou FCD @ April 25 2008,00:16)
Proposed cure worse than disease

Quote
'Planetary sunshade' could strip ozone layer by 76%

   * 19:00 24 April 2008
   * NewScientist.com news service
   * Catherine Brahic

Planetary engineering projects to cool the planet could backfire quite spectacularly: a new model shows that a "sulphate sunshade" would punch huge holes through the ozone layer above the Arctic.

To make matters worse, it would also delay the full recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole by up to 70 years.

Pumping tiny sulphate particles into the atmosphere to create a sunshield that would keep the planet cool was first suggested as a solution to global warming by Edward Teller, a physicist was best known for his involvement in the development of the hydrogen bomb.

Simone Tilmes of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US, used computer models to see how a sulphate sunshade would affect the ozone layer, which protects us from harmful UV rays. She says it could have "a drastic impact".


Hey, here's an idea...

How 'bout we quit dumping tons of shit into the atmosphere, instead?

Oh wait.  That might reduce profits down into the billions of dollars.  What the hell was I thinking?

Ozone layer depletion? Easy! I can solve that for you in a few lines:

1) Too little stratospheric ozone partly due to anthropogenic pollutants.

2) Too much ground level ozone due partly to anthropogenis pollutants.

3) Some kind of big pipe from ground to stratosphere is needed.

Probelm solved, quod erat demonstratum, cogito ergo sum, alea jacta est, redde Caesari quae sunt Caesaris, Cornelia et Flavia sub arborum sunt, et cetera

Now can we get on with business?

Louis

--------------
Bye.

  
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,05:17   

Quote (Reed @ April 25 2008,06:41)
Quote (Falk Macara @ April 24 2008,19:29)
The generation of massive financial profits at the expense of the environment, the very systems we require for our ongoing existance, is not driven by evil companes, evil CEO's or evil board members.  It's driven by the people who consume -- and demand to consume more of -- the output of these firms, and hang the costs of the externalities generated.

This is absolutely true. However it doesn't mean nothing can be done. We cannot escape some impact at this point, but we can potentially affect how severe it is.

People cried bloody murder about limiting CFCs (unsurprisingly, many of the same people now say it's to expensive to do anything about AGW) but we did, and we are almost certainly better off for it, despite the costs. The cost of having no ozone layer would ultimately have been much greater.

This brings me to my big beef with the "all regulation is bad, let the market handle it" crowd (which overlaps very strongly with GW denial and it's lesser forms of "oh it's too expensive to do anything" and "oh maybe GW is a good thing".) Markets are inherently short sighted in this kind of situation. If you can make a product for $1 by polluting a lot, or $2 without polluting much, someone is going to go for the $1 method. Even if others want to do it clean (and there's plenty of decent, honest people in industry) they will have trouble competing. Never mind that it will eventually cost society as a whole $3 per item to clean up the resulting mess.

This makes several very good points, but the one I really want to highlight is a personal favourite of mine:

Not only do environmentally friendly business activities potentially SAVE money in the long term, they can be made to save money in the short term. They can even be used to (shock horror) MAKE money!

If we can gradually suspend our reliance on fossil fuels by making PART (because it will not be all AFAICT) of our energy sources sustainable (solar/wind etc) then we essentially get energy for "free" (yes, yes, manufacture, installation, start up etc). The point is, if our houses are built/equipped with energy producing devices (mini turbines/solar panels) etc we can generate a small portion (depending on location and prevalent weather conditions) of our energy requirements ourselves. That saves us money. Granted there are solutions that only save us money in the long run (the installment costs being very high) but as the technology improves, as these products become more commonplace, as standard market forces come to bear on these products etc this will get cheaper.

I've even seen "environmental houses" that generate enough of their own electricity to heat themselves during the winter months and privide power all year round.  Not bad! Ok, these things are ferociously expensive today, but one of the things we need to work on (and are) is making these technologies cheaper and more available.

So quite contrary to Obliviot's strawman about fearing change, I say we embrace the inevitable changes and that we provide technological solutions for them as best we can. Reducing our dependance on certain energy sources is a start, it's part of the whole picture. Nuclear energy (pref. fast breeder/next gen. breeder) is another part, geothermal is another (where available cheaply) etc etc etc. In fact, judging by the science I have read, we have no other option. Change is coming. The problem is how do we cope with that change and how do we prevent some of that change doing untold damage.

Just think (this is a bit utopian I realise) of the benefits of being relatively independant of fossil fuels as our primary source of energy. Think of the political isolation the Middle East will face, think of the long term cost of energy decreasing, think of the relatively consequence/pollution free use of energy. I say we diversify our energy sources, making as many of them sustainable as we can. This is actually something that will BENEFIT us all economically, from a pauper in a Chinese rice paddy to a corporate bigwig in London.

Yeah yeah, I'm an optimist, I know. My bad.

Louis

--------------
Bye.

  
Lou FCD



Posts: 5455
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,07:20   

Quote (Louis @ April 25 2008,05:55)
Fair?


Quite.  Thank you.

 
Quote (Louis @ April 25 2008,05:55)

What do I think?

Hmmm, one of the tricky questions eh?! ;-)

First, the obivous caveat: It's not my field (obviously) so I do not have the perspective of the current state of the relevant literature needed to place it properly in context.

My initial impressions on reading it were that, although to my non-geneticist/anthropologist eyes it seemed well written and the evidence for their hypothesis was obviously obtained properly (from the little I know about sequencing/examining DNA etc), I (like the authors) would be cautious as advancing this as anything other than a starting point for a new hypothesis about the splits/dating of splits in early human populations. "More work needed", although that doesn't take away from how interesting this is at all.

For example the dates they obtained seem to me to come only from molecular clock data (someone please correct me if I missed something) which can be tricky, and need at least some calibration/correlation with other independant dating methods. Obviously that wasn't the point of this paper, but I thought I'd mention it as one of the first things I thought on reading it.

From the popular reading and brief forays into the primary lit I've done on the subject over the years I was already aware of the fact that there was a mtDNA demonstrated split in early H. sapiens. Although I wouldn't have remembered any dates for that split. This paper proposes that the split a lot earlier than previously thought. It also makes a good case for a more heterogenous migration of H. sapiens across Africa. However the authros are careful to point out that their data by no means proves their hypothesis, merely advance the possibility of a slightly different explanation to the one currently understood (i.e. more homogenous migration pattern, later split etc).

I would be really very careful about linking this paper to any "environmental" issues, especially modern ones. This paper is describing a genetic pattern within a modern population which might shed light on the past migrations of our early ancestors. If I were to call this a "speciation" (which it certainly is not, but bear with my layman's use of terms) then enviromental changes which seperate populations are part of the known mechanisms of "speciation". Environmental changes/conditions may well have been a causitive factor in the split shown in this paper, but I couldn't make that judgement based on this paper alone (and I haven't chased down the references it cites). I see you've also noted how it links with the news stories you mention.

LOL typical scientist, I ignored what you wrote and the news stories and went off and read the paper first! At this point in the post I went back to check what you and the news stories had written! My bad, my bad. Although I think what I've just said stands as a lay analysis of some aspects of the paper you link.

Having read the news stories I'd have to say that this is pretty typical media behaviour, exactly the kind I mentioned before. Some science somewhere mentions humans and environment and by the time it gets from the scientists who understand it to the news story it has passed through the eyes and brain of probably half a dozen people most of whom DON'T understand the science. Hence it is presented as a big deal/something it ain't. Incidentally this sort of thing is why I no longer read New Scientist, it's more media than science.

This paper certainly isn't newsworthy in the sense the media outlets quoted use it. Because it is slightly more technical than "Spot the Dog" the media wquote it as some revolutionary piece. As my PhD supervisor hammered into me: a proper persepctive on the literature is needed. We've known for many years that humans basically fall into two broad categories based on mtDNA studies (some Africans + everyone else). We've known for years that environmental changes are one of the causative mechanisms behind migrations and/or any resulting genetic divergence up to and including speciation. This paper refines some of our estimates, possibly even to the extent of placing the split in populations in a period of known environmental change, but it of itself is a step on the road, not the whole journey. I'd be a lot more cautious, mainly because I don't know enough about the field to make a proper judgement.

Fair?

Louis


That's what I was really asking.  I had posted the stories with the links to the papers.  Then I began to read the paper and saw little connection at all to the first story.  I even went back and searched again, thinking maybe there were two papers with the same author, and each story was about a different paper.

--------------
“Why do creationists have such a hard time with commas?

Linky“. ~ Steve Story, Legend

   
skeptic



Posts: 1163
Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,09:43   

Quote (BWE @ April 24 2008,12:27)
Quote (skeptic @ April 21 2008,08:53)
quote "and for some people and places that will be too late"

nuf said.

I do have to admit that you did hit the nail on the head on one point, when it comes to your posts I skim them.  They are typically too long, redundant and filled with worthless drivel.  But you right about that point.  I would suggest that you start adding some substance.

Now about GW, if I read you right here you'd like to discuss climate change with me in the hopes of launching some other attack in a similiar redundant vein.  Well here's your opening...in my opinion, I have seen no evidence that tipping points exist so I'm less inclined to think we are at a point where somewhere in the next 10-20 years some event or series of events will occur putting human existence in jeopardy.  Go ahead, convince me.  I honestly have no dog in this fight except for a sincere aversion to the political manipulation of science to achieve an agenda (both ID and radical evolutionists fall under this same umbrella for me).  So if the world is actually under a state of uncontrolled warming and human existence is threatened then I'm all ears.  Unfortunately, all I ever hear is the politics and never convincing science.

There you go, a little project for your afternoon enjoyment.

OK, 2 things.

1) If the political aim of radical evolutionists is to... Wait a minute.

What is the political aim of radical evolutionists? Is it substantially different than one or more of the stated political aims of Thomas Jefferson?

2) Skeptic, tipping points define almost every system. Stasis in a system is the result of unchanging inputs over time.

When populations decline, they can reach a tipping point where the decline turns to a crash. Water sloshes merrily around at .5' c but at  0 suddenly undergoes a phase transition. Phase transitions have all kinds of chaotic properties but typically happen rather suddenly.

This is of course oversimplified but I am surprised you would say that there is no evidence for tipping points since you said you do some kind of science.  What kind of science is that again? I ask because tipping points are one of the most salient features of any system. Complex mechanical systems almost never, (I can't think of any examples at all right now, maybe later) change gradually in response to changing conditions.

I guess gradual should be defined in terms of climate as averaging climate in 500 year increments back over the last billion or so.
 You get stasis then abrupt jumps then stasis.

First I'd like to point the wonderfully defensed and referenced statements of the past page.  It's truly great to see properly supported arguments laid out free from opinion and bias.

BWE,
I think you're taking me somewhat out of context.  I'm referring to tipping points as identified in the GW argument and not the concept of a tipping point in general.  Here's some examples of some of the things that I'm talking about:

Hansen

Hansen again


Oceans

This is the background that I'm working from and the kind of language that I find difficult to defend.  For one the 450 ppm when we know that past CO2 concentrations have exceeded 2000 ppm.

Nature - CO2 levels

As referenced here, sea pH levels can vary and dramatic results for plankton populations have been proposed and well as coral bleaching and yet a recent article in Science discussed a study that actually shows increases in certain plankton populations based upon pH decreases.

This is just an example of what I read and used to formulate an opinion and it is by no means exhaustive because, as I've said before, I don't have (strike that) choose to invest the time.  For me this board is entertainment.  I occasionally see posts that prompt me to further research a topic and I am often presented with an idea that forces me to question what I may think or believe.  That is an intellectual exercise that I find enjoyable and it passes the time but I'm not here to defend my dissertation.  It would be nice if I force some to rethink a position or to further investigate a point but really that's not my goal.  I'm here for me and my benefit and I must apologize if that's too blunt or lacks a required level of altruism.

  
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,11:06   

Quote (skeptic @ April 25 2008,15:43)
[SNIP]

This is just an example of what I read and used to formulate an opinion and it is by no means exhaustive because, as I've said before, I don't have (strike that) choose to invest the time.  For me this board is entertainment.  I occasionally see posts that prompt me to further research a topic and I am often presented with an idea that forces me to question what I may think or believe.  That is an intellectual exercise that I find enjoyable and it passes the time but I'm not here to defend my dissertation.  It would be nice if I force some to rethink a position or to further investigate a point but really that's not my goal.  I'm here for me and my benefit and I must apologize if that's too blunt or lacks a required level of altruism.

Obliviot,

Then you will continue to be mocked as the substance free kook and troll you clearly are. You basically just confessed as much. Considering your contributions to conversations are manifestly content free and contrarian, we can easily surmise the "entertainment" you derive from being here is annoying others with your vacuous crap. Practically the very definition of trolling.

Personally, I don't buy the "I can't be bothered" excuse from you. You can be bothered to post reems of content free drivel, yet one tiny little bit of evidenciary support for your claims is beyond you. Colour me suspicious. This latest excuse from you is yet another obvious dodge in a series of obvious dodges.

Has it ever occured to you Obliviot that YOU (yes YOU) can and should ask people to defend their claims just as they ask you to defend yours? I'm serious. Deadly serious.

The principle underlying this has been pointed out to you ooooohhhhhh about a billion times now. It's not about agreement, or disagreement, or who's team people are on, it's about the EVIDENCE. So, when you make big sounding claims (like for example being "sceptical about evolutionary mechanisms" or " climate tipping points = crapola" to name two recent ones) then people are going to ask you to back them up with a bit more than "it's my opinion so there" or whatever avoidance technique you've whined out this time.

Most people here can distinguish between opinion and fact Obliviot, you demonstrably cannot and will not. We're AWARE you (and others) have different opinions. We're AWARE that some of these others are perfectly rational intellgient human beings (even if you aren't) and what we want is to discuss the issues with them (and engage in occasional light banter). So when the opportunity for discussion presents itself we like to engage in it.

Take as a recent-ish example the conversation between Bill, BWE and myself about meditation. I learned a lot, and because of that conversation nipped off and read a few things. All perfectly amicable, all perfectly sane. Why? Because not once did Bill or BWE misrepresent what I was saying or vice versa, despite the fact that initially we were not clear about what each other was saying.

Again Obliviot, the FACT of disagreement is not an issue, the MANNER of disagreement is. The fact that you continually, without fail, refuse to support any claim you make here and continually find whiny little ways to avoid doing so (from presuppositionalism to relativism to persecution to beyond, as it suits you) is why, almost exclusively, you are viewed with contempt.

No one is complaining about opinions, yours, mine, anyone's, simply being stated. What people are trying very very hard to get you (and others) to do is SUPPORT those opinions to some degree. Try to understand that in a discussion where two people have differing opinions, it is the reference to the evidence that decides an issue. Try to understand that if you go anywhere in the world and present an opinion to someone that either differs from theirs or contradicts the available evidence then you are going to be asked to provide some form of support for your claim. This is not persecution or bias, especially in the latter case, it is the standard to and fro of debate and discussion.

If all you have to offer is injecting a dissenting opinion/counterfactual opinion (and it would seem you do) and then running away every time anyone tries to discuss it with you, please, and I mean this most sincerely, fuck off. For you are doing nothing more than trolling.

Louis

ETA: P.S. I actually think you're afraid. Any fool can google an article that sounds useful, hell even a total arse monkey like GoP could do that. What is far, far harder is to defend an idea demonstrating in the process you can understand it. By the way, this is something you have singularly failed to do. Epicly. And not just because at every given opportunity you run away.

--------------
Bye.

  
Lou FCD



Posts: 5455
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,12:27   

Enough.  Knock it off.



Quote
The 'Facilities', Max Fish, Lower East Side, New York


--------------
“Why do creationists have such a hard time with commas?

Linky“. ~ Steve Story, Legend

   
Assassinator



Posts: 479
Joined: Nov. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,17:42   

@Louis:
Well...skeptic did point out what he exactly ment, and where he got it from. Isn't that like, more you could ever ask for? At least enough to like, react on his opinions, right?
Anyway,
Quote (Louis Posted on April 25 2008 @ 05:17)
<snip>

Indeed, can't say nothing more then I agree. The point I'm kinda worried about, is the affordability from goods like that, and if they don't come too late for those tens of millions of people who are fleeing already from the changing enviroment already. What can we do to prevent them from dying an mass? We're already on the good road, making sure are alright and prepared, but what about them?

  
skeptic



Posts: 1163
Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,17:56   

Are they really fleeing?  We have millions dying in Africa every year and I assume the same in SE Asia, although I don't know for sure.  At yet, I don't see any mass exodus underway?  Is that really true or did I misunderstand what you were saying?

  
Assassinator



Posts: 479
Joined: Nov. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,18:27   

Hell yes they're fleeing, especially in Africa, people running from desertification and drought.
I'm not sure about SE Asia, but I can imagine it will happen or already is happening with increasing floods.
The really shitty side about those African people moving, is that they move to more fertile area's (ofcourse), but because they're with so many and just want to survive, they completly drain those area's as well and then the story starts over again. And o boy, the locals from those refugee area's don't like that. But what to do? It's like a spiral diving deeper and deeper.

  
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,18:53   

Quote (Assassinator @ April 25 2008,23:42)
@Louis:
Well...skeptic did point out what he exactly ment, and where he got it from. Isn't that like, more you could ever ask for? At least enough to like, react on his opinions, right?
Anyway,
Quote (Louis Posted on April 25 2008 @ 05:17)
<snip>

Indeed, can't say nothing more then I agree. The point I'm kinda worried about, is the affordability from goods like that, and if they don't come too late for those tens of millions of people who are fleeing already from the changing enviroment already. What can we do to prevent them from dying an mass? We're already on the good road, making sure are alright and prepared, but what about them?

Read what he wrote, and those articles, again. These appear to be a) the sorts of things he is complaining about and/or b) the sort of sources he gets his "information" from (clearly excluding Nature, like I said, any fool can google an abstract). If you think he explained anything, as opposed to yet again evading any support/elaboration of his "tipping points = crapola" claim, then you are sorely mistaken.

Assassinator, to be blunt, I/we have experience of Obliviot, he lies and evades continually. You'll get used to it. I have zero intention of being nice until he fronts up like an adult when asked to support/elaborate on his claims. Asking him to support his claims is educational because he never can. It demonstrates how shallow and vacuous his claims are. More than that he even ADMITS he's not interested in researching topics merely in bloviating and proselytising. Sympathy for this I lack!

AllI want Obliviot todo is explain WHY tipping points in climate science are crapola, WHY in his opinion they are wrong. If he claims this is because of their distasteful (to him) political connotations then this is not a sufficient reason. In fact it's an irrelevance, a logical fallacy (The Is/Ought fallacy). He's trying to argue that because (for him) the consequences of X being true are unpleasant, then Xmust perforce be untrue.If he has some scientific reason for his claim then he is yet to show it.

Merely repeating the claim or giving further examples of what he doesn't like is NOT supporting that claim. Making rather obviously flawed elisions about prehistoric CO2 levels (for example) as part of some larger strawman he has erected in his own head is irrelevant and futile. The universe at the time of the big bang was a lot hotter than it was now, can we therefore survive at those temperatures? No of course not. The reductio ad absurdum is deliberate, no one denies CO2 levels in the past were higher, but that vast oversimplification misses a few key elements out of the current situation. Don't believe his hype.

Louis

--------------
Bye.

  
Assassinator



Posts: 479
Joined: Nov. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,19:02   

Well ok I can agree on that, posting articles who just repeat your own p.o.v isn't an explanation in any way. And I as well still want an explanation from skeptic (yes skeptic, you indeed) on why it's indeed crap in his eyes (I'm not even condemning his views), and not just examples of more people who agree with him.
But I'm just pretty optimistic and saw sóme content, seeing at least a weeee small oppertunity for a reaction on his views ;-) Just my hopefull side I guess.

  
skeptic



Posts: 1163
Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,19:55   

ok, a couple of quick points.  first, how are prehistoric CO2 levels irrelevant in this debate, if that is indeed what you are saying?  The idea that CO2 levels have changed dramatically throughout history reinforces the robust nature of climate to withstand variability. Please tell me what I'm missing here.

Also, to fully explore my lack of faith in possible climatic tipping points we'd have to go into the computer models and their inherent limitations, the current level of confidence in the climate system as a whole and here I'm mainly referring to the role of moisture and the degree to which we can infer where we are dynamically and historically in relation to a prospective tipping point.  Certainly there is probably more to do it any justice but just one of those three points would require a serious investment of time to be fair.  An investment that, IMO, would be wholly and utterly wasted on my part because Louis isn't really interested in those things.  He's just looking for a sound bite and a cheap shot and a opportunity to hit CTRL-V and repaste his favorite rant.  To be fair, if I was more involved or had some real interest I might still slog on in the face of the coming onslaught but for me GW is about as relevant in my daily life as who's going to win the Stanley Cup.  I have a favorite team but I never watch the games anymore and if they win I'll enjoy it for the length of time it takes me to read the article online.  I'm not saying that GW and the Stanley Cup are actually of the same importance just in my life.  I really only get worked up by the use of GW as a political tool to motivate or shame people into conforming to an agenda.  Maybe if I believed in the urgent threat as reported then I might feel differently, I dunno...I find malaria much more threatening than GW but that's just me.

  
Henry J



Posts: 5786
Joined: Mar. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: April 25 2008,23:24   

The fact that some life forms thrived during periods of high CO2 (or other differences from now) doesn't mean there weren't several others that didn't manage to adapt when those conditions arose.

Henry

  
skeptic



Posts: 1163
Joined: May 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 26 2008,01:05   

But different life forms die all the time.  You don't often hear major extinction events linked to gradual climate changes.  Consider the end of the last Ice Age, how many species do we think we lost?  Honestly, that's not rhetorical, I'm curious.

  
Louis



Posts: 6436
Joined: Jan. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: April 26 2008,05:17   

Quote (skeptic @ April 26 2008,01:55)
ok, a couple of quick points.  first, how are prehistoric CO2 levels irrelevant in this debate, if that is indeed what you are saying?  The idea that CO2 levels have changed dramatically throughout history reinforces the robust nature of climate to withstand variability. Please tell me what I'm missing here.

Also, to fully explore my lack of faith in possible climatic tipping points we'd have to go into the computer models and their inherent limitations, the current level of confidence in the climate system as a whole and here I'm mainly referring to the role of moisture and the degree to which we can infer where we are dynamically and historically in relation to a prospective tipping point.  Certainly there is probably more to do it any justice but just one of those three points would require a serious investment of time to be fair.  An investment that, IMO, would be wholly and utterly wasted on my part because Louis isn't really interested in those things.  He's just looking for a sound bite and a cheap shot and a opportunity to hit CTRL-V and repaste his favorite rant.  To be fair, if I was more involved or had some real interest I might still slog on in the face of the coming onslaught but for me GW is about as relevant in my daily life as who's going to win the Stanley Cup.  I have a favorite team but I never watch the games anymore and if they win I'll enjoy it for the length of time it takes me to read the article online.  I'm not saying that GW and the Stanley Cup are actually of the same importance just in my life.  I really only get worked up by the use of GW as a political tool to motivate or shame people into conforming to an agenda.  Maybe if I believed in the urgent threat as reported then I might feel differently, I dunno...I find malaria much more threatening than GW but that's just me.

So close yet so far. You almost bothered to support your claim.

1) What are you missing? An ability to read for comprehension and think at a grade school level.

No I don't in anyway claim or think that prehistoric CO2 levels are irrelevant, read it again. The point I'm making very simply is that reducing the situation to a soundbite "CO2 was higher then, so it can't be dangerous now" misses the subtleties, misses the details. It misses the fact that CO2 concentrations alone are not the be all and end all, despite the drivel in the media. It is a false dichotomy. Ignoring the details is the error that the media/politicians/beardy weirdy greenie tree huggers/climate change denialists make. The devil is in the details.

This is why I repeatedly keep trying to get you to support your point. You'll find that the minute you examine the details you'll see it's more complex than you've been sold (by either "side"). Trust me, I get more annoyed by some tree hugging fucknuckle droning on than I do some corporate shill who denies everything. Why? Because the tree hugger SHOULD know better and is playing into the denialist's hands.

I've said this so often I'm almost amazed it hasn't sunk in. None of this is about "teams" or "sides" or what have you, it's about the evidence. People who misrepresent the evidence in order to maintain their biases annoy the fuck out of me, worse than that they actually do harm to any useful aspects of any cause they claim to support. It doesn't matter if I agree wth them or not. Try to understand this.

2) Yes discussing those topics involves a time investment. An investment I and others are not only demonstrably willing to make in general, but also HAVE made repeatedly (not on this topic per se, just in the past on a myriad of topics). It always comes back to this with you Obliviot, you always cry persecution and make your inadequacies someone else's fault. Why on earth you think such obvious evasions deserve even a modicum of respect is beyond me.

Claiming I'm not interested in those things is in error. Demonstrably so. However mean or unpleasant I am, I am the only person trying very very hard to get you to engage in intellectual activity beyond "I said so". Your evasions and bloviations fool no one, if your massively arrogant ego is too fragile to cope with that then stay the fuck out of any intellectual discussion. Whether you like it or not Obliviot, no discussion that you have entered into here has got off the ground floor. Why? Because when questioned on the support for your claims you run away and create these standard red herrings of yours. It is not only transparent why you do it, it is utterly predictable.

Oh and I don't cut and paste my rants, they are hand tooled rants, individually tailored by master rant craftsmen with decades of rant experience and training. The similarities arise from the fact that the things I'm ranting about are pratcically identical. In your case that would be your lack of intellectual rigour, honesty or effort. You're big on claims but tiny when it comes to supporting them. Change the behaviour and the rants will change, or more likely disappear.

I've done this before and I'll do it again: I am more than happy to cease berating your for your shennanigans and being abusive towards you for you asinine behaviour but such loveliness comes at a price. That price is that you make no more strawmen, make no more evasions, deal with the evidence, and make an intellectual effort to at least follow an argument. This involves work on your part. Work that I and basically everyone else here is already putting it to varying degrees as the situation demands it.

3) First famine now malaria? Anything is more important than climate change, I wonder why! Forgive the sarcasm. Of course malaria and famine are very important so are a myriad of other issues. Your lack of understanding of this topic, brought on no doubt by your self confessed lack of interest, skews your perception of the urgency of it. Presenting these things as monolithic soundbites "climate change" "malaria" "famine" etc is falling into the anti-intellectual media trap. These are complex (often linked) issues that REQUIRE effort to understand. If you aren't interested or aren't persuaded that you should be interested then why post on the topic? Why inject your self admittedly ignorant opinion into a discussion at all? Especially if, when asked to elaborate on or explain that position you evade doing so in a series of manoeuvers that would make a tapeworm proud of their spineless sliminess.

As always Obliviot, the choice is yours. You can continue to evade, bloviate and obfuscate, and I will continue to call you on it in a variety of unpleasant ways. Or you can engage in those topics about which you choose to post in a more rigourous manner. If you can't be bothered to do the work necessary to support your claim, then say so.  I and others will never complain about the answer "I don't know" or "I can't be bothered", the problem for you is that either of those answers immediately removes your right to comment in a useful manner on those topics. So stop! If you want to comment on a topic and discuss the issues around a topic the price of admission is that you must support, or be able to support, your claims and opinions regarding that topic.

4) You'd be wasting your time by presenting evidence eh? Bullshit. I'm banging on because you DON'T present evidence. You presenting evidence is what I want. Projecting your tendancy for obfuscation and uninformed bloviation onto others is pathetic, dishonest and yet another transparent evasion on your part. Not only do we have a long record of my honest and effort laden engagement in a myriad of topics on this board, but we also have a similarly long record of your lack of honest and effort laden participation on any topic on this board. The evidence, as usual, demonstrates the falsity of your claim. ETA: Cheap shots? Never! They are always expensive. You'll find out how little I care about what you call "cheap shots" the minute you support your claims. Soundbites? LOL I'm too long, too short, too wordy, too glib. Make your mind up! Just goes to show what a red herring this is from you. Whatever suits your purpose is right eh Obliviot? I suggest you stop projecting your own issues onto others and start making the effort to support your claims.

5) Aside to All: Incidentally, for anyone that thinks any of this is irrelevant to the topic of this post, it isn't.

Relying on media sources for information about complex scientific topics is an error. As I've mentioned. Refusal to take a topic seriously enough to do the basic investigation (and there is no shame in this btw, there are myriad topics about which I am similarly uninformed and uninterested), removes your ability to make informed contributions to any discussion of that topic. Full stop.

That doesn't mean "shut up you have no right to speak" that means "your self confessed ignorance about a topic precludes you from making useful contributions to it". Add to that the fact that no one, informed or otherwise has a right to their claims being unquestioned. Level playing field, everyone is open to the exact same scrutiny. The difference between the informed and the uninformed is that the former has a basis for their claim that the latter does not.

The political and sociological kerfuffle we see in all public debates, not just the one over climate change, is largely due to the comparative lack of informed people discussing the topic in the public domain. Why do creationist canards persist? It certainly isn't because those people informed about evolutionary biology credit them with any intellectual worth, evidence based, logic base or otherwise. It's in part because they are the meat and drink of people hugely uninformed about evolutionary biology. Obviously it's more complex than this, but that this the part relevant to this discussion about the CC politics/CC science divide.

Obliviot's behaviour is the demonstrable problem with the public debate. It's the issue in a microcosm. Ignorant, proud of it, and evasive and dishonest when asked to correct that ignorance. It's frankly pathetic. It's inexcusable from a self-confessedly clueless and ignorant denialist like Oblviiot, it's fucking criminal from anyone who should know better. If Obliviot thinks I'm hard on him, wait until you see me take on someone on my own "side" (for want of a better term).

The real problem we face is not climate change or malaria or war or famine or comets from the Oort cloud wiping us from the face of the earth, the real problem is more selfish, more immediate. The real problem is our own stupidity and primate nature. If we as a group can overcome that to any extent the other problems immediately become a lot more soluble because we can deal with them in an intelligent and rational evidence based manner. Climate change, war, famine, and perhaps even the comet (although that's debatable!) are not problems for "earth" or "nature" or "life" they are problems for humans and especially modern human societies. To the "earth" or "nature" or "life" these are incidentals, nasty but not fatal.

Louis

ETA: I done did and editorialisation. I still probably missed lots of stuff. Oh well.

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Bye.

  
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