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stevestory Posts: 13407 Joined: Oct. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,18:23    Yeah, and you can also find a yahoo address for Davetard, I think on Brainstorms, but it's weird that contact info is hidden at UD. At PT, for instance, there's a big "Contact Us" button in the top right corner.

stevestory Posts: 13407 Joined: Oct. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,18:24    BTW, ISCID doesn't necessarily mean contact. I called the ISCID phone number three times during business hours last year and got nothing. It rang and rang, and after a while, a fax machine tried to pick up.

Assassinator Posts: 479 Joined: Nov. 2007 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,19:40    Quote (stevestory @ July 05 2008,18:24) BTW, ISCID doesn't necessarily mean contact. I called the ISCID phone number three times during business hours last year and got nothing. It rang and rang, and after a while, a fax machine tried to pick up. Ooo that's normal, like my new discussion partner sad, life is just high-tech technology anyway ;) I guess that because of there low budget, ISCID has to do with a little less high-tech receptionists. They have to save all there money for that super-duper research they're conducting.

Lou FCD Posts: 5455 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,20:25    Quote (ERV @ July 05 2008,16:18) Quote (Lou FCD @ July 05 2008,14:09) Grandpa, tell us the one about JanieBelle.  That's my favorite. Did Tyler tell you what happened to him when his girlfriend found messages from JanieBelle on his blog? uh, no, actually.  He musta forgot. *scurries off to Tyler's place* -------------- “Why do creationists have such a hard time with commas? Linky“. ~ Steve Story, Legend

Bettawrekonize Posts: 9 Joined: July 2008 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,20:51    Quote (Maya @ July 05 2008,18:17) Quote (stevestory @ July 05 2008,16:31) Betta said (on the wrong thread):   Quote You know, the thing is that I tried to E - Mail many of the moderators before (including Dembski among others) and my E - Mails never got through. I tried to E - Mail the uncommondescent legal services (or whatever that is) and it never got through either (they get bounced back). It could be the case that their E - Mail boxes are full. I've gone to UD before in search of emails and not found a way to contact anybody there. It's weird. Anyone have an explanation for this? I found william.dembski@iscid.org and wdembski@sbts.edu pretty easily, and I'm just a grad student in the biology department (send him my love when you write).  Surely some of you computer studs could do better. I've got an ex-Marine friend who would love to, um, lecture DaveScot on the principles of the Corps. Quote I found william.dembski@iscid.org and wdembski@sbts.edu pretty easily, and I'm just a grad student in the biology department (send him my love when you write).   Yes, and I've E - mailed him and the E - Mails bounced back. Quote Surely some of you computer studs could do better. Finding their contact information was easy. The problem is actually contacting them.

Bettawrekonize Posts: 9 Joined: July 2008 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,20:52    I suspect that their E - mail boxes are probably full.

ERV Posts: 329 Joined: Sep. 2007 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,21:17    Quote (Lou FCD @ July 05 2008,20:25) Quote (ERV @ July 05 2008,16:18) Quote (Lou FCD @ July 05 2008,14:09) Grandpa, tell us the one about JanieBelle.  That's my favorite. Did Tyler tell you what happened to him when his girlfriend found messages from JanieBelle on his blog? uh, no, actually.  He musta forgot. *scurries off to Tyler's place* Oh it was awesome!  She was mad because she thought he was flirting with some online hussy, and then Tyler had to explain the whole story to her, so shes not mad anymore, but she thinks hes weird(er). ROFL!!!! The only thing that would make this funnier is if Tylers girlfriend ended up running off with Janie.

Lou FCD Posts: 5455 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,21:44    Quote (ERV @ July 05 2008,22:17) Quote (Lou FCD @ July 05 2008,20:25) Quote (ERV @ July 05 2008,16:18)   Quote (Lou FCD @ July 05 2008,14:09) Grandpa, tell us the one about JanieBelle.  That's my favorite. Did Tyler tell you what happened to him when his girlfriend found messages from JanieBelle on his blog? uh, no, actually.  He musta forgot. *scurries off to Tyler's place* Oh it was awesome!  She was mad because she thought he was flirting with some online hussy, and then Tyler had to explain the whole story to her, so shes not mad anymore, but she thinks hes weird(er). ROFL!!!! The only thing that would make this funnier is if Tylers girlfriend ended up running off with Janie. Man would Sal and Dave be pissed... -------------- “Why do creationists have such a hard time with commas? Linky“. ~ Steve Story, Legend

Freelurker Posts: 82 Joined: Oct. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,23:02    Quote (stevestory @ July 05 2008,19:16) Will I shock anyone by revealing that Jerry Pournelle was an engineer? I doubt it. From the Wikipedia entry:     Quote Jerry Eugene Pournelle (born August 7, 1933) is an American science fiction writer, essayist and journalist who contributed for many years to the computer magazine Byte and has since 1998 been maintaining his own website/blog. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki....c_views Also see his Bio Notice that Pournelle does not call himself an engineer. That's understandable considering that he has never worked as an engineer. His writings for Byte were from a computer user perspective. If you think that defense policy analysis and operations research are engineering then you are revealing your own ignorance and you are illustrating why people should not comment on areas they don't understand. Yes, he has an engineering degree (M.S.) but he also has degrees in psychology (Ph.d), statistics (M.S.), and political science (Ph.d). If having the degree makes him an engineer then he must be a scientist, too; psychology is a science, right? Save your venom for the creationists. -------------- Invoking intelligent design in science is like invoking gremlins in engineering. [after Mark Isaak.] All models are wrong, some models are useful. - George E. P. Box

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,23:27    Davetard would like us to know: http://www.uncommondescent.com/intelli....-291992 Quote 14 DaveScot 07/05/2008 10:19 pm Dear Church Burnin’ Ebola Boys, It’s currently legal to teach intelligent design in any public school except for the Dover district. What isn’t legal is scientific creationism which is easily distinguished from ID in that it positively asserts that everything in Genesis is the literal truth. ID acknowledges the possibility of an old earth and descent with modification from a comman ancestor. You boys either need a single USSC decision banning the teaching of ID or a whole boatload of lower court decisions. Comer failed to follow the marching orders given by her employer and was canned for it. Happens all the time. Would I have objected if she been promoting a Demski lecture? No. But I didn’t object to Comer promoting Forrest’s lecture either. All I’m doing is supporting the state of Texas in having the right to control what Texas state employees do when they’re either on the clock or representing themselves as gov’t employee. Comer was spending my tax dollars in a way that was proscribed by higher ranking members of our gov’t. If she can’t follow the orders of her duly elected or appointed superiors she has no business being a gov’t employee. If she wants to be an evolution crusader she needs to go elsewhere to do it. except it is creationism, Dave, and we have the soundbites and transitional fossils to prove it, you bad CDesignproponentsist. -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,23:34    FFXL... just above Dave's post: http://www.uncommondescent.com/intelli....-291986 Quote If you truly believe ID is both religion and not science, then do what no design critic has ever done and provide evidence for this. Feel free to cite the wedge document or the early panda’s drafts, both of which have had to be addressed numerous times by design theorists as not being what Barbara Forrest says they are. ...addressed numerous times by design theorists... We'll let the fact there is no 'design theory' go..link to these rebuttals? FtK? Anyone? -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,23:45    Dave *really* doesn't understand probability: http://www.uncommondescent.com/intelli....-291993 Quote 24 DaveScot 07/05/2008 10:59 pm Frost So every event that has happened is indeed 1/1 retrospectively No. Probabilities don’t change just because an outcome fell one way or another in the past. If a given flip of a fair coin turned up heads it doesn’t change the fact that the odds were 50/50 and will forever remain 50/50 for that fair coin. So, Dave what are the odds of tossing 5 heads in a row, given that you've already tossed 5 heads? -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

keiths Posts: 2195 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 05 2008,23:57    Quote (Richardthughes @ July 05 2008,21:45) Dave *really* doesn't understand probability: http://www.uncommondescent.com/intelli....-291993 Quote 24 DaveScot 07/05/2008 10:59 pm Frost So every event that has happened is indeed 1/1 retrospectively No. Probabilities don’t change just because an outcome fell one way or another in the past. If a given flip of a fair coin turned up heads it doesn’t change the fact that the odds were 50/50 and will forever remain 50/50 for that fair coin. So, Dave what are the odds of tossing 5 heads in a row, given that you've already tossed 5 heads? Wow.  Can you imagine what it must feel like to know less about something than Frost, of all people? Poor Dave. -------------- And the set of natural numbers is also the set that starts at 0 and goes to the largest number. -- Joe G Please stop putting words into my mouth that don't belong there and thoughts into my mind that don't belong there. -- KF

Wesley R. Elsberry Posts: 4991 Joined: May 2002 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,02:21    David Springer dropped a comment into the queue on my blog wishing me a fatal disease. That sort of thing is why I use a moderation queue for everything on my personal weblog. Springer apparently thinks that wishing a fatal disease on me has some sort of parity with my comment that Jerry Pournelle should get well, and in doing so may find his otherwise inexplicable fondness for IDC to have been a side effect of his illness. -------------- "You can't teach an old dogma new tricks." - Dorothy Parker

jeffox Posts: 671 Joined: Oct. 2007 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,03:38    That's all right, Wes.  Keep in mind, Dave already has a terminal case of tard.  My 2c.  :)

Dr.GH Posts: 2333 Joined: May 2002 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,03:42    Quote (Wesley R. Elsberry @ July 06 2008,00:21) David Springer dropped a comment into the queue on my blog wishing me a fatal disease. That sort of thing is why I use a moderation queue for everything on my personal weblog. Springer apparently thinks that wishing a fatal disease on me has some sort of parity with my comment that Jerry Pournelle should get well, and in doing so may find his otherwise inexplicable fondness for IDC to have been a side effect of his illness. You are much nicer than I am. -------------- "Science is the horse that pulls the cart of philosophy." L. Susskind, 2004 "SMOLIN VS. SUSSKIND: THE ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE"

Bob O'H Posts: 2564 Joined: Oct. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,05:21    Dave responds about the outing of Gloppy Quote 4 sparc 07/04/2008 11:50 am Tard Alert! Quote Rumor has it Galapagos Finch’s real name was discovered by the evos, outted, and because he’s at risk for job discrimination for public support of ID he decided discretion was the better part of valor and buried the site. I guess this is the first kind of official confirmation that Galapagos Finch is Robert Marcks. Well done Dave. The only information I have on the matter is what Oleg posted on After The Bar Closes. Ironically Oleg unknowingly used the Explanatory Filter and reached a design inference based on the evidence. Presuming the evidence was valid I believe the design inference is indisputable. -ds Hang on a moment, I thought the explanatory filter showed if something was designed as opposed to being the result of chance, but didn't say who did it. -------------- It is fun to dip into the various threads to watch cluelessness at work in the hands of the confident exponent. - Soapy Sam (so say we all)

carlsonjok Posts: 3326 Joined: May 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,06:36    Quote (Freelurker @ July 05 2008,23:02)   Quote (stevestory @ July 05 2008,19:16) Will I shock anyone by revealing that Jerry Pournelle was an engineer? I doubt it. If you think that defense policy analysis and operations research are engineering then you are revealing your own ignorance and you are illustrating why people should not comment on areas they don't understand. Operations research is a staple of Industrial Engineering undergraduate programs.  At least it was when I was an IE student 20 years ago. -------------- It's natural to be curious about our world, but the scientific method is just one theory about how to best understand it.  We live in a democracy, which means we should treat every theory equally. - Steven Colbert, I Am America (and So Can You!)

Freelurker Posts: 82 Joined: Oct. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,07:53    Quote (carlsonjok @ July 06 2008,07:36)     Quote (Freelurker @ July 05 2008,23:02)       Quote (stevestory @ July 05 2008,19:16) Will I shock anyone by revealing that Jerry Pournelle was an engineer? I doubt it. If you think that defense policy analysis and operations research are engineering then you are revealing your own ignorance and you are illustrating why people should not comment on areas they don't understand. Operations research is a staple of Industrial Engineering undergraduate programs.  At least it was when I was an IE student 20 years ago. Operations Research is an analytical discipline that is distinct from engineering. It is indeed used in support of engineering but it is also used in support of management and policy analysis. As a group, operations researchers do not claim to be engineers. See: Operations Research: The Science of Better -------------- Invoking intelligent design in science is like invoking gremlins in engineering. [after Mark Isaak.] All models are wrong, some models are useful. - George E. P. Box

Maya Posts: 702 Joined: Dec. 2007 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,10:44    Quote (Wesley R. Elsberry @ July 06 2008,02:21) David Springer dropped a comment into the queue on my blog wishing me a fatal disease. That sort of thing is why I use a moderation queue for everything on my personal weblog. Springer apparently thinks that wishing a fatal disease on me has some sort of parity with my comment that Jerry Pournelle should get well, and in doing so may find his otherwise inexplicable fondness for IDC to have been a side effect of his illness. Was Dave really a Marine?  I've got to stop sharing comments from here with other people.  There's a just-under-six-foot, well-muscled guy pacing around muttering things like "Dirtbag" and "Disgrace." It's sign of good health to be able to see the vein pulsing in his temple, right?

olegt Posts: 1405 Joined: Dec. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,12:14    Quote (Bob O'H @ July 06 2008,05:21) Dave responds about the outing of Gloppy   Quote 4 sparc 07/04/2008 11:50 am Tard Alert!   Quote Rumor has it Galapagos Finch’s real name was discovered by the evos, outted, and because he’s at risk for job discrimination for public support of ID he decided discretion was the better part of valor and buried the site. I guess this is the first kind of official confirmation that Galapagos Finch is Robert Marcks. Well done Dave. The only information I have on the matter is what Oleg posted on After The Bar Closes. Ironically Oleg unknowingly used the Explanatory Filter and reached a design inference based on the evidence. Presuming the evidence was valid I believe the design inference is indisputable. -ds Hang on a moment, I thought the explanatory filter showed if something was designed as opposed to being the result of chance, but didn't say who did it. Right, Bob.  The nontrivial part was identifying the designer. Everybody knew from the start that Gloppy was a sock puppet of someone with enough weight in the ID circles to be on familiar terms with Dr Dr.  In fact, many of us suspected that it was Dr Dr hisself (I certainly did).  But when I saw Gloppy's essay produced from an IEEE template it had engineer written all over it.  The rest is history.   And I don't think Marks is afraid for his career.  He just looks ridiculous in a clown suit. -------------- If you are not: Galapagos Finch please Logout »

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,12:17    Quote (Freelurker @ July 06 2008,07:53) Quote (carlsonjok @ July 06 2008,07:36)     Quote (Freelurker @ July 05 2008,23:02)         Quote (stevestory @ July 05 2008,19:16) Will I shock anyone by revealing that Jerry Pournelle was an engineer? I doubt it. If you think that defense policy analysis and operations research are engineering then you are revealing your own ignorance and you are illustrating why people should not comment on areas they don't understand. Operations research is a staple of Industrial Engineering undergraduate programs.  At least it was when I was an IE student 20 years ago. Operations Research is an analytical discipline that is distinct from engineering. It is indeed used in support of engineering but it is also used in support of management and policy analysis. As a group, operations researchers do not claim to be engineers. See: Operations Research: The Science of Better I did some Operational Research and Industrial Engineering (ORIE) courses at Cornell. Lots of supply chain, Linear programming, Fisher-Pry, manufacturing strategy... all good stuff. I are not an engineer, though. -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

Venus Mousetrap Posts: 201 Joined: Aug. 2007 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,13:21    Quote (Richardthughes @ July 05 2008,23:45) Dave *really* doesn't understand probability: http://www.uncommondescent.com/intelli....-291993   Quote 24 DaveScot 07/05/2008 10:59 pm Frost So every event that has happened is indeed 1/1 retrospectively No. Probabilities don’t change just because an outcome fell one way or another in the past. If a given flip of a fair coin turned up heads it doesn’t change the fact that the odds were 50/50 and will forever remain 50/50 for that fair coin. So, Dave what are the odds of tossing 5 heads in a row, given that you've already tossed 5 heads? I can't see what's wrong with this. It is true that the odds are always 50/50 for a fair coin. The probability of five heads also doesn't change if five heads have been thrown. What am I missing here?

Bob O'H Posts: 2564 Joined: Oct. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,13:35    Venus  - once the coin has been tossed, you know whether it was a heads or tails.  Hence, the probability of a heads is either 0 or 1: it is no longer unknown. If you have already tossed 5 heads in a row, then the probability of that is 1, because it's been done.  Of course the probability of tossing another 5 heads is 1/32 (assuming a fair coin), but that's a slightly different question. Although I should observe that one has to be very careful with the wording of these problems, otherwise it's not clear what is being asked.  Rich's question is ambiguous, although from the context we can work out what he means. -------------- It is fun to dip into the various threads to watch cluelessness at work in the hands of the confident exponent. - Soapy Sam (so say we all)

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,13:36    Well, now we're half way through 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 at the start it was 0.5 ^10 now it is 0.5 ^ 5 so really we have 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 1 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,13:37    Quote (Bob O'H @ July 06 2008,13:35) Venus  - once the coin has been tossed, you know whether it was a heads or tails.  Hence, the probability of a heads is either 0 or 1: it is no longer unknown. If you have already tossed 5 heads in a row, then the probability of that is 1, because it's been done.  Of course the probability of tossing another 5 heads is 1/32 (assuming a fair coin), but that's a slightly different question. Although I should observe that one has to be very careful with the wording of these problems, otherwise it's not clear what is being asked.  Rich's question is ambiguous, although from the context we can work out what he means. You can *probably* work out what I mean.. -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

midwifetoad Posts: 4003 Joined: Mar. 2008 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,14:40    Quote So, Dave what are the odds of tossing 5 heads in a row, given that you've already tossed 5 heads? The odds don't change retrospectively, but the question being addressed is wrong. The way to look at it is this: Say you've tossed a hundred heads in a row; what are the odds that the coin is fair? In terms of evolution, when you know via many lines of evidence that something has evolved, what are the odds that Dembski/Behe's CSI probability assumptions are correct? -------------- Any version of ID consistent with all the evidence is indistinguishable from evolution.

Richardthughes Posts: 11178 Joined: Jan. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,15:02    I think it boils down to the probability / certainty divide of future / past. -------------- "Richardthughes, you magnificent bastard, I stand in awe of you..." : Arden Chatfield "You magnificent bastard! " : Louis "ATBC poster child", "I have to agree with Rich.." : DaveTard "I bow to your superior skills" : deadman_932 "...it was Richardthughes making me lie in bed.." : Kristine

J-Dog Posts: 4402 Joined: Dec. 2006 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,16:06    Quote (Maya @ July 05 2008,18:17) Quote (stevestory @ July 05 2008,16:31) Betta said (on the wrong thread):   Quote You know, the thing is that I tried to E - Mail many of the moderators before (including Dembski among others) and my E - Mails never got through. I tried to E - Mail the uncommondescent legal services (or whatever that is) and it never got through either (they get bounced back). It could be the case that their E - Mail boxes are full. I've gone to UD before in search of emails and not found a way to contact anybody there. It's weird. Anyone have an explanation for this? I found william.dembski@iscid.org and wdembski@sbts.edu pretty easily, and I'm just a grad student in the biology department (send him my love when you write).  Surely some of you computer studs could do better. I've got an ex-Marine friend who would love to, um, lecture DaveScot on the principles of the Corps. Maya - I hope your friend can handle dealing out the Truth to an old fat ex-Marine that was once on the sharp edge of the stick  - repairing broken airplanes.  Even the Marine's wouldn't let DaveScot handle anything really sharp.  Semper Fi! -------------- Come on Tough Guy, do the little dance of ID impotence you do so well. - Louis to Joe G 2/10 Gullibility is not a virtue - Quidam on Dembski's belief in the Bible Code Faith Healers & ID 7/08 UD is an Unnatural Douchemagnet. - richardthughes 7/11

stevestory Posts: 13407 Joined: Oct. 2005 (Permalink) Posted: July 06 2008,22:53    Ahhh, the UD thread. Feels good to be home.

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