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Southstar



Posts: 150
Joined: Nov. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Jan. 02 2012,04:28   

Quote (midwifetoad @ Dec. 27 2011,15:37)

Concerning pure chance.

I found that most IDiots tend to use the word chance in the wrong way. As in mutations can't come by chance or life cannot arrise by chance.

So I have explained that chance is not an interruption of cause-effect as in something unexpected arrises that has no cause.

Rather chance is used to express that we don't know what mutations will arise.

To this end I wanted to add an analogy so that it is easier to comprehend. So I thought of using the roulette game. But actually this is not really a good analogy cause you could calculate the exact number that would come out by doing calculations on the weights and forces involved. Sure it would be impossible to do at the casino, but it would be certainly possible to do it elsewhere.

Do any of you have a good analogy? where the cause-effects are well understood, but the final event is not in any way predictable.

Thanks
Marty

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"Cows who know a moose when they see one will do infinitely better than a cow that pairs with a moose because they cannot see the difference either." Gary Gaulin

  
oldmanintheskydidntdoit



Posts: 4999
Joined: July 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Jan. 02 2012,05:13   

Quote (Southstar @ Jan. 02 2012,04:28)
Sure it would be impossible to do at the casino, but it would be certainly possible to do it elsewhere.

In fact not, I saw a thing recently where people had cameras up their sleeves feeding data to a program which calculated the likely result of a spin in real time and they bet just as the table closed.....

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I also mentioned that He'd have to give me a thorough explanation as to *why* I must "eat human babies".
FTK

if there are even critical flaws in Gaugerís work, the evo mat narrative cannot stand
Gordon Mullings

  
Cubist



Posts: 344
Joined: Oct. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: Jan. 02 2012,07:06   

hmmm... you could talk about insurance companies? An insurance company can accurately predict how many of its customers are likely to break their legs in any given year, but they can't even begin to predict which ones those customers will be.
Alternately, you could talk about radioactive decay. Given a chunk of Radioactive Element X with [number] atoms of Element X in it, you can make very accurate predictions about the quantity of atoms that will decay in any given time period, but even in principle, there's no way to tell in advance *which* of those atoms will decay.

  
qetzal



Posts: 308
Joined: Feb. 2006

(Permalink) Posted: Jan. 02 2012,09:34   

Quote (Southstar @ Jan. 02 2012,04:28)
Rather chance is used to express that we don't know what mutations will arise.

And, perhaps more importantly, that mutations arise independently of their observable effects. In other words, there is no purposeful direction to which mutations occur. The mutational process is random with respect to phenotype.

Evolution, in contrast, is highly non-random, because the chance that a given mutation will be passed down to future generations does depend on phenotype.

  
Henry J



Posts: 3998
Joined: Mar. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Jan. 02 2012,12:52   

Quote
Do any of you have a good analogy? where the cause-effects are well understood, but the final event is not in any way predictable.

Weather. Economy. Individual quantum events. Genome of next offspring. Anything based on chaotic processes.

Henry

  
Southstar



Posts: 150
Joined: Nov. 2011

(Permalink) Posted: Sep. 24 2012,04:00   



Sounds familiar :)

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"Cows who know a moose when they see one will do infinitely better than a cow that pairs with a moose because they cannot see the difference either." Gary Gaulin

  
k.e..



Posts: 2835
Joined: May 2007

(Permalink) Posted: Sep. 24 2012,07:50   

When you find out where babies come from kiddo come 'round for another visit.

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"I get a strong breeze from my monitor every time k.e. puts on his clown DaveTard suit" dogdidit
"Abbie Smith (ERV) who's got to be the most obnoxious arrogant snot I've ever seen except for when I look in a mirror" DAVE TARD
"ID is deader than Lenny Flanks granmaws dildo batteries" Erasmus

  
  366 replies since Nov. 08 2011,06:46 < Next Oldest | Next Newest >  

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