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DiEb

Posts: 284
Joined: May 2008

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 23 2012,03:27

Quote (Robin @ Oct. 22 2012,17:17)
Quote (DiEb @ Oct. 22 2012,07:37)

 Quote (Robin @ Oct. 22 2012,02:02) Got a statistics problem for anyone feeling bored:(1+mi)*(1+mi+1)*(1+mi+2)*...(1+mn)=(1+X)^nSuppose each value of M has a standard deviation associated with it. What is the standard deviation of X? Is it a simpler calculation if the standard deviation of each M is the same?This is from my wife's friend. It's been over 25 years since I've done statistics so I'm rusty and trying to brush up. Any help would be appreciated.Oh...and the notation is the way it is because I've not figured out how to get series fonts to work.

Let me clarify:

1) You have  a number of random variables M_1 .... M_n and you form the product R= (1+M_1)(1+M_2)...(1+M_n). Those M_i are real valued, independent, and are following an identical distribution.

2) Are asking whether there is a random variable X such that the product R equals (1+X)^n ?

Obviously if n is even and those M are following the Gaussian law then such an X doesn't exist - the right hand side is always positive, while the probability for the left hand to be negative is positive :-)

Dieb -

1) I confess I'm confused on this point as well, but your summary is my take as well.

2) No, I don't think so. I think the friend is asking what the standard deviation of X would be given a standard deviation of Mi. On top of that, she wants to know whether the calculation is easier if the standard deviation of Mi is the same throughout the series. Seems to me that the calculation has the exact same difficulty either way as "calculation difficulty" seems somewhat subjective once you are dealing with standard deviations, but perhaps she's asking whether the notation of the calculation requires more variables if the standard deviation of Mi is not the same.

Your note on the Gaussian law gave me a chuckle. I don't think that my wife's friend was thinking in terms of physics when she posted the problem (but then, I don't actually know that) and I doubt it applies to any inverse square type calculation, but then that's a bit out of my area of knowledge anyway. I'm tempted to note the X likely can't exist for that reason though just to see her response. :-)

If this is a  textbook exercise I'd assume that all the M_i are Bernoulli experiments and that the reference to ''standard deviation'' was misleading. In this case, the product equals 2^X, where X is following a binomial distribution B(n,p).

Robin

Posts: 1431
Joined: Sep. 2009

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 23 2012,09:00

 Quote (DiEb @ Oct. 23 2012,03:27) If this is a  textbook exercise I'd assume that all the M_i are Bernoulli experiments and that the reference to ''standard deviation'' was misleading. In this case, the product equals 2^X, where X is following a binomial distribution B(n,p).

My assumption is that the equation is a straight up statistics problem, but again I'm so rusty that I'm having a tough time trying to solve it. I'm not sure that the variables are supposed to be assumed to be binary, but if so, I have no idea what my friend's question regarding different deviations across Mi would mean. Very confusing.

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we IDists rule in design for the flagellum and cilium largely because they do look designed.  Bilbo

The only reason you reject Thor is because, like a cushion, you bear the imprint of the biggest arse that sat on you. Louis

Schroedinger's Dog

Posts: 1692
Joined: Jan. 2009

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,01:27

Quote (Cubist @ Oct. 20 2012,10:59)
Quote (fnxtr @ Oct. 20 2012,02:53)

 Quote (Kristine @ Oct. 19 2012,13:23) Grabbity is teh strongest force... :pGotta be rough, researching booty--er, beauty and it's effect on um, erh, success... (Boiiiinnngggg!)I don't claim to be pure, and we've certainly ragged on poor O'Leary, but geez. Where all the sciency supermodels be at?

Any social gathering has its share of sexual energy, but grabbity is just juvenile and rude. You gotta wonder what if anything is going through these guys' minds. What do they think is gonna happen?

I often feel guilty about reacting -- even only silently, internally -- to a woman's looks/wit/vitality. I'm still listening to what she's saying but all I can think is holy crap what beautiful eyes/hair/voice w.h.y.

I have a couple of very attractive blonde friends who've dyed their hair and cut it off or tied it back because they've felt they weren't being taken seriously.

:-(

"Is a puzzlement."

But always remember that people who get bothered about so-called "sexual harrassment" and alleged "misogynistic behavior" are, at absolute best, making mountains out of molehills, because there aren't hardly any women who genuinely are on the short end of that kind of stuff. Isn't that right, S-dog?

Did I ever say anything like that, or did you swallow the FTB/A+ Koolaid?

--------------
"Hail is made out of water? Are you really that stupid?" Joe G

"I have a better suggestion, Kris. How about a game of hide and go fuck yourself instead." Louis

"The reason people use a crucifix against vampires is that vampires are allergic to bullshit" Richard Pryor

Erasmus, FCD

Posts: 6349
Joined: June 2007

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,06:52

FTB/A+

--------------
You're obviously illiterate as hell. Peach, bro.-FtK

Finding something hard to believe based on the evidence, is science.-JoeG

the odds of getting some loathsome taint are low-- Gordon E Mullings Manjack Heights Montserrat

I work on molecular systems with pathway charts and such.-Giggles

Schroedinger's Dog

Posts: 1692
Joined: Jan. 2009

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,07:46

 Quote (Erasmus, FCD @ Oct. 24 2012,13:52) FTB/A+

--------------
"Hail is made out of water? Are you really that stupid?" Joe G

"I have a better suggestion, Kris. How about a game of hide and go fuck yourself instead." Louis

"The reason people use a crucifix against vampires is that vampires are allergic to bullshit" Richard Pryor

Lou FCD

Posts: 5409
Joined: Jan. 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,08:16

Quote (Schroedinger's Dog @ Oct. 24 2012,02:27)
Quote (Cubist @ Oct. 20 2012,10:59)
Quote (fnxtr @ Oct. 20 2012,02:53)

 Quote (Kristine @ Oct. 19 2012,13:23) Grabbity is teh strongest force... :pGotta be rough, researching booty--er, beauty and it's effect on um, erh, success... (Boiiiinnngggg!)I don't claim to be pure, and we've certainly ragged on poor O'Leary, but geez. Where all the sciency supermodels be at?

Any social gathering has its share of sexual energy, but grabbity is just juvenile and rude. You gotta wonder what if anything is going through these guys' minds. What do they think is gonna happen?

I often feel guilty about reacting -- even only silently, internally -- to a woman's looks/wit/vitality. I'm still listening to what she's saying but all I can think is holy crap what beautiful eyes/hair/voice w.h.y.

I have a couple of very attractive blonde friends who've dyed their hair and cut it off or tied it back because they've felt they weren't being taken seriously.

:-(

"Is a puzzlement."

But always remember that people who get bothered about so-called "sexual harrassment" and alleged "misogynistic behavior" are, at absolute best, making mountains out of molehills, because there aren't hardly any women who genuinely are on the short end of that kind of stuff. Isn't that right, S-dog?

Did I ever say anything like that, or did you swallow the FTB/A+ Koolaid?

The seemingly complete inability of the FTB/A+theism crowd to accurately represent differing viewpoints reminds me strongly of the creationists at UD. While I'm tempted to chalk it up to deliberate straw-manning, I try to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they're just stupid. So less like Dembski, more like JoeG.

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Lou FCD is still in school, so we should only count him as a baby biologist. -carlsonjok -deprecated
I think I might love you. Don't tell Deadman -Wolfhound

Work-friendly photography
NSFW photography

Erasmus, FCD

Posts: 6349
Joined: June 2007

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,09:05

It's a hilarious reminder that most athiests are just as fucking stupid as everyone else

if you need me i will be up here in my ivory tower giving zero fucks

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You're obviously illiterate as hell. Peach, bro.-FtK

Finding something hard to believe based on the evidence, is science.-JoeG

the odds of getting some loathsome taint are low-- Gordon E Mullings Manjack Heights Montserrat

I work on molecular systems with pathway charts and such.-Giggles

fnxtr

Posts: 2770
Joined: June 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,10:30

--------------
"But it's disturbing to think someone actually thinks creationism -- having put it's hand on the hot stove every day for the last 400 years -- will get a different result tomorrow." -- midwifetoad

"I am in a rush to catch up with science work." -- Gary Gaulin

fnxtr

Posts: 2770
Joined: June 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,10:32

Quote (Schroedinger's Dog @ Oct. 23 2012,23:27)
Quote (Cubist @ Oct. 20 2012,10:59)
Quote (fnxtr @ Oct. 20 2012,02:53)

 Quote (Kristine @ Oct. 19 2012,13:23) Grabbity is teh strongest force... :pGotta be rough, researching booty--er, beauty and it's effect on um, erh, success... (Boiiiinnngggg!)I don't claim to be pure, and we've certainly ragged on poor O'Leary, but geez. Where all the sciency supermodels be at?

Any social gathering has its share of sexual energy, but grabbity is just juvenile and rude. You gotta wonder what if anything is going through these guys' minds. What do they think is gonna happen?

I often feel guilty about reacting -- even only silently, internally -- to a woman's looks/wit/vitality. I'm still listening to what she's saying but all I can think is holy crap what beautiful eyes/hair/voice w.h.y.

I have a couple of very attractive blonde friends who've dyed their hair and cut it off or tied it back because they've felt they weren't being taken seriously.

:-(

"Is a puzzlement."

But always remember that people who get bothered about so-called "sexual harrassment" and alleged "misogynistic behavior" are, at absolute best, making mountains out of molehills, because there aren't hardly any women who genuinely are on the short end of that kind of stuff. Isn't that right, S-dog?

Did I ever say anything like that, or did you swallow the FTB/A+ Koolaid?

Consider your chain yanked, P.

--------------
"But it's disturbing to think someone actually thinks creationism -- having put it's hand on the hot stove every day for the last 400 years -- will get a different result tomorrow." -- midwifetoad

"I am in a rush to catch up with science work." -- Gary Gaulin

Schroedinger's Dog

Posts: 1692
Joined: Jan. 2009

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,10:59

 Quote (fnxtr @ Oct. 24 2012,17:32) Consider your chain yanked, P.

Let's hope so, because it's starting to slightly get on my nerves. Thanks FSM, AtBC still seems to be the tamest venue in the Atheist blogosphere WRT this shit.

Also, I really, really miss Louis.

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"Hail is made out of water? Are you really that stupid?" Joe G

"I have a better suggestion, Kris. How about a game of hide and go fuck yourself instead." Louis

"The reason people use a crucifix against vampires is that vampires are allergic to bullshit" Richard Pryor

Tracy P. Hamilton

Posts: 1239
Joined: May 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,12:01

Quote (Schroedinger's Dog @ Oct. 24 2012,10:59)
 Quote (fnxtr @ Oct. 24 2012,17:32) Consider your chain yanked, P.

Let's hope so, because it's starting to slightly get on my nerves. Thanks FSM, AtBC still seems to be the tamest venue in the Atheist blogosphere WRT this shit.

Also, I really, really miss Louis.

The scroll bar is my friend.  I stayed out because no matter what I would say, someone would find a way to misunderstand it.

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"Following what I just wrote about fitness, you’re taking refuge in what we see in the world."  PaV

"The simple equation F = MA leads to the concept of four-dimensional space." GilDodgen

"We have no brain, I don't, for thinking." Robert Byers

fnxtr

Posts: 2770
Joined: June 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,12:14

 Quote (Lou FCD @ Oct. 24 2012,06:16) The seemingly complete inability of the FTB/A+theism crowd to accurately represent differing viewpoints reminds me strongly of the creationists at UD. While I'm tempted to chalk it up to deliberate straw-manning, I try to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they're just stupid. So less like Dembski, more like JoeG.

Aye, there's the rub.

Somewhere out there is a reasonable discussion about the differences between individual sexual behaviour and gender bigotry.

Haven't seen it, myself, but it must be out there somewhere...

--------------
"But it's disturbing to think someone actually thinks creationism -- having put it's hand on the hot stove every day for the last 400 years -- will get a different result tomorrow." -- midwifetoad

"I am in a rush to catch up with science work." -- Gary Gaulin

Lou FCD

Posts: 5409
Joined: Jan. 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 24 2012,17:05

Quote (fnxtr @ Oct. 24 2012,13:14)
 Quote (Lou FCD @ Oct. 24 2012,06:16) The seemingly complete inability of the FTB/A+theism crowd to accurately represent differing viewpoints reminds me strongly of the creationists at UD. While I'm tempted to chalk it up to deliberate straw-manning, I try to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they're just stupid. So less like Dembski, more like JoeG.

Aye, there's the rub.

Somewhere out there is a reasonable discussion about the differences between individual sexual behaviour and gender bigotry.

Haven't seen it, myself, but it must be out there somewhere...

It would be an interesting discussion, so if you find it, please do let me know.

--------------
Lou FCD is still in school, so we should only count him as a baby biologist. -carlsonjok -deprecated
I think I might love you. Don't tell Deadman -Wolfhound

Work-friendly photography
NSFW photography

Bob O'H

Posts: 2254
Joined: Oct. 2005

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 25 2012,06:32

Quote (Robin @ Oct. 23 2012,09:00)
 Quote (DiEb @ Oct. 23 2012,03:27) If this is a  textbook exercise I'd assume that all the M_i are Bernoulli experiments and that the reference to ''standard deviation'' was misleading. In this case, the product equals 2^X, where X is following a binomial distribution B(n,p).

My assumption is that the equation is a straight up statistics problem, but again I'm so rusty that I'm having a tough time trying to solve it. I'm not sure that the variables are supposed to be assumed to be binary, but if so, I have no idea what my friend's question regarding different deviations across Mi would mean. Very confusing.

It doesn't look like a standard problem. The pdf is horrible, because it involves multiple products. There's probably a reasonable approximation if you expand the brackets and apply a central limit theorem to each term, but the devil's in the detail.

If each M_i follows a Cauchy distribution I'll pay to watch you solve it.

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It is fun to dip into the various threads to watch cluelessness at work in the hands of the confident exponent. - Soapy Sam (so say we all)

Posts: 1334
Joined: Jan. 2007

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 29 2012,16:58

Referring to the discussion on double entendres:

--------------
"People are always looking for natural selection to generate random mutations" - Densye  4-4-2011
JoeG BTW dumbass- some variations help ensure reproductive fitness so they cannot be random wrt it.

OgreMkV

Posts: 3668
Joined: Oct. 2009

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 29 2012,21:04

Quote (Lou FCD @ Oct. 24 2012,17:05)
Quote (fnxtr @ Oct. 24 2012,13:14)
 Quote (Lou FCD @ Oct. 24 2012,06:16) The seemingly complete inability of the FTB/A+theism crowd to accurately represent differing viewpoints reminds me strongly of the creationists at UD. While I'm tempted to chalk it up to deliberate straw-manning, I try to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they're just stupid. So less like Dembski, more like JoeG.

Aye, there's the rub.

Somewhere out there is a reasonable discussion about the differences between individual sexual behaviour and gender bigotry.

Haven't seen it, myself, but it must be out there somewhere...

It would be an interesting discussion, so if you find it, please do let me know.

There's a very well behaved discussion at SkepticInk... not really gender discrimination and sexual behavior... but I'm sure they could come up with something.

In fact, if you want to write something up, even with just questions, I'll be happy to post it for you.

--------------
Ignored by those who can't provide evidence for their claims.

http://skepticink.com/smilodo....retreat

Robin

Posts: 1431
Joined: Sep. 2009

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 30 2012,11:06

 Quote (Bob O'H @ Oct. 25 2012,06:32) It doesn't look like a standard problem. The pdf is horrible, because it involves multiple products. There's probably a reasonable approximation if you expand the brackets and apply a central limit theorem to each term, but the devil's in the detail.If each M_i follows a Cauchy distribution I'll pay to watch you solve it.

Thanks Bob! Alas, no answer thus far.

--------------
we IDists rule in design for the flagellum and cilium largely because they do look designed.  Bilbo

The only reason you reject Thor is because, like a cushion, you bear the imprint of the biggest arse that sat on you. Louis

Erasmus, FCD

Posts: 6349
Joined: June 2007

 (Permalink) Posted: Oct. 30 2012,23:54

look i just wanted to say

hang on

first, Hi I am Erasmus, FCD and I am a tardaholic

OK i know we aren't supposed to fight about talk club but i just love this tard sooo much that i must share it with you guys because i love you too

this idiot Chad Elliott is seriously a god-tier tard.  you will look the entire internet over and not find a bigger fucking moron in any tube.  the depth of this man's stupidity is staggering.  the style in which he plays prometheus answering voltaire's prayer, daily, it would be a shame if i were to try to describe it without you reading it for yourself.

Now listen this is a pet but i don't feed him.  you don't have to.  there is a constant stream of neckbearded gnu athiest autistic types facebooking and youtubing him to death.  for fuck's sake don't do that.  just watch, and enjoy, for he does this shit for free.

lulz here

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki....rgument

if you want to see the muppet's fercebark

his y00t00b channel for his apolologetics yo.  his temple name is "fivethirty"

myface when i read shit he posts

he is far more stupid than anyone we have ever had here before

--------------
You're obviously illiterate as hell. Peach, bro.-FtK

Finding something hard to believe based on the evidence, is science.-JoeG

the odds of getting some loathsome taint are low-- Gordon E Mullings Manjack Heights Montserrat

I work on molecular systems with pathway charts and such.-Giggles

Glen Davidson

Posts: 1100
Joined: May 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2012,22:18

Coppedge case is looking favorable to canning incompetents who wish to turn worksites into evangelization sites.

Glen Davidson

--------------
http://tinyurl.com/mxaa3p....p

Nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of coincidence---ID philosophy

dvunkannon

Posts: 1377
Joined: June 2008

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2012,10:02

I wrote a blog about global warming and it is here:
http://dvunkannon.blogspot.com/2012....nd.html

The background is that my SF club has a science discussion board that is regularly tarded up by a John Birch Society, precious bodily fluids-level reactionary dude who is very anti-realist in many ways, but especially so on GW. We jousted back and forth every time he posted his shit, but everyone else got sick and tired of it, so the organizer asked us to write one essay each and leave it at that. This is mine. No idea if the other guy will man up and write something.

Thanks for looking, if you care.

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I’m referring to evolution, not changes in allele frequencies. - Cornelius Hunter
I’m not an evolutionist, I’m a change in allele frequentist! - Nakashima

khan

Posts: 1529
Joined: May 2007

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 04 2012,15:34

Not sure where to post this:

Dembski's not the only one to "bow to the text" or else.

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"It's as if all those words, in their hurry to escape from the loony, have fallen over each other, forming scrambled heaps of meaninglessness." -damitall

That's so fucking stupid it merits a wing in the museum of stupid. -midwifetoad

Frequency is just the plural of wavelength...
-JoeG

fnxtr

Posts: 2770
Joined: June 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 04 2012,22:18

 Quote (khan @ Nov. 04 2012,13:34) Not sure where to post this:http://www.daytondailynews.com/news.......twitterDembski's not the only one to "bow to the text" or else.

He is now free to be slightly less loony.

--------------
"But it's disturbing to think someone actually thinks creationism -- having put it's hand on the hot stove every day for the last 400 years -- will get a different result tomorrow." -- midwifetoad

"I am in a rush to catch up with science work." -- Gary Gaulin

J-Dog

Posts: 4402
Joined: Dec. 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 05 2012,17:05

 Quote (khan @ Nov. 04 2012,15:34) Not sure where to post this:http://www.daytondailynews.com/news.......twitterDembski's not the only one to "bow to the text" or else.

 Quote Not sure where to post this:

On the Expelled Thread?

I would suggest opening a new "Too Stupid To be Believed" Thread - but we've already got a thread dedicated to UD...

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Come on Tough Guy, do the little dance of ID impotence you do so well. - Louis to Joe G 2/10

Gullibility is not a virtue - Quidam on Dembski's belief in the Bible Code Faith Healers & ID 7/08

UD is an Unnatural Douchemagnet. - richardthughes 7/11

Posts: 1334
Joined: Jan. 2007

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 06 2012,05:46

 Quote (khan @ Nov. 04 2012,21:34) Not sure where to post this:http://www.daytondailynews.com/news.......twitterDembski's not the only one to "bow to the text" or else.

The avatar on comment no. 9 says it all, really.

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"People are always looking for natural selection to generate random mutations" - Densye  4-4-2011
JoeG BTW dumbass- some variations help ensure reproductive fitness so they cannot be random wrt it.

stevestory

Posts: 10828
Joined: Oct. 2005

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 06 2012,13:45

I am about to win a steak dinner in a few hrs. There's a Faux News head at work who thinks I'm a sucker because everybody knows Obama is an incompetent failure who is about to lose to the real american job creator in a momentous landslide. He eagerly took my bet, and last week, tried to up it to include dinner for the missus.

JohnW

Posts: 3015
Joined: Aug. 2006

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 06 2012,13:58

 Quote (stevestory @ Nov. 06 2012,11:45) I am about to win a steak dinner in a few hrs. There's a Faux News head at work who thinks I'm a sucker because everybody knows Obama is an incompetent failure who is about to lose to the real american job creator in a momentous landslide. He eagerly took my bet, and last week, tried to up it to include dinner for the missus.

Don't forget to take his guns and make him marry a man.

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Math is just a language of reality. Its a waste of time to know it. - Robert Byers

There isn't any probability that the letter d is in the word "mathematics"... Â The correct answer would be "not even 0" - JoeG

Posts: 3992
Joined: Mar. 2008

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 06 2012,14:08

I do believe the reporting on this election cycle is the worst in my memory, which goes back to Kennedy/Nixon.

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Any version of ID consistent with all the evidence is indistinguishable from evolution.

Robin

Posts: 1431
Joined: Sep. 2009

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 06 2012,14:09

 Quote (khan @ Nov. 04 2012,15:34) Not sure where to post this:http://www.daytondailynews.com/news.......twitterDembski's not the only one to "bow to the text" or else.

Maybe these institutions will show up in Expelled Too: No Heresy Allowed.

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we IDists rule in design for the flagellum and cilium largely because they do look designed.  Bilbo

The only reason you reject Thor is because, like a cushion, you bear the imprint of the biggest arse that sat on you. Louis

Henry J

Posts: 4983
Joined: Mar. 2005

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 06 2012,14:32

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - stevestory]

 Quote (stevestory @ Nov. 06 2012,12:45) I am about to win a steak dinner in a few hrs. There's a Faux News head at work who thinks I'm a sucker because everybody knows Obama is an incompetent failure who is about to lose to the real american job creator in a momentous landslide. He eagerly took my bet, and last week, tried to up it to include dinner for the missus.

That's certainly one way to up the steaks.

stevestory

Posts: 10828
Joined: Oct. 2005

 (Permalink) Posted: Nov. 06 2012,14:37

Puns are so bad I will move them to the bathroom wall--even if they're already there!

:-P

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