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The Ghost of Paley



Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Oct. 31 2005,09:47   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Any particular reason for the red-bating? Are you still concerned that the CPUSA might try to take over the country?


No, I am not concerned about that at all. Polls indicate only 9% of Americans believe in evolution and most of them are effete cowards who couldn't take over a wet paper bag. There is no chance of a communist takeover in this country. In America, communists are an endangered species that exist only in zoos like Harvard and Berkely. America's Christian taxpayers care for you like any good zookeeper; we just don't want you animals to determine what our children learn in our schools. Che Guevera, Lenin?--Chomsky, Gould, etc., much less their pathetic disciples who run this message board don't even come close.



Quote
And surely you're not going to claim that the Soviet Union was a haven for evolutionists...


Darwinism is the intellectual precursor to Marxism. Without it Marxism could not exist. It is an uncitical devotion to the works of Darwin that caused Lysenkoism to be adopted. Lysenkoism is just applied Darwinism. It was the Christian monk Gregor Mendel, not the atheistic philosopher Darwin who really discovered genetics, and this is what Lysenko objected to. Yes, evolutionists had free reign in the Soviet Union, while true scientists were sent to the Gulag.

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
ericmurphy



Posts: 2460
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Oct. 31 2005,10:38   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

[quote=The Ghost of Paley,Oct. 31 2005,15:47]
Quote


Darwinism is the intellectual precursor to Marxism. Without it Marxism could not exist.

Communist Manifesto: 1848.

On the Origin of Species: 1859.

Do we have a QED here?

--------------
2006 MVD award for most dogged defense of scientific sanity

"Atheism is a religion the same way NOT collecting stamps is a hobby." —Scott Adams

  
MidnightVoice



Posts: 380
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Oct. 31 2005,11:32   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote (The Ghost of Paley @ Oct. 31 2005,15:47)
America's Christian taxpayers

Don't forget, Jesus was a Liberal Jew.  :D

--------------
If I fly the coop some time
And take nothing but a grip
With the few good books that really count
It's a necessary trip

I'll be gone with the girl in the gold silk jacket
The girl with the pearl-driller's hands

  
GCT



Posts: 1001
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,02:57   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Polls indicate only 9% of Americans believe in evolution


I want a source on that.

  
IMind



Posts: 5
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,03:32   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

I believe he's getting it from a Gallup poll from 1991. Cited on a site which apparently is trying to foster religious tolereance... it's also the very first link that comes up when you google "polls evolution"... pretty lazy.

Relgious Tolerance - Evolution Polling page

A more recent poll shows the number at 15% from CBS News...
CBS Evolution Poll

However... in both polls there is a large percentage of people that believe in evolution of some form... it's really pretty depressing how deluded most Americans are.

  
The Ghost of Paley



Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,05:06   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
I want a source on that


Here is the linkI was in slight error. The 9% poll was for 1987. Darwininsts seem to have gained a little ground. As of 1997, 10% of Americans believe in evolutionism! It might even be as high as 11% by now! Wow, the revolution must coming soon!!

*snicker*

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
GCT



Posts: 1001
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,05:10   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

By my reading of that poll, 9% accept in atheistic evolution, while 40% accept a theistic evolution stance.  That would seem to me to be 49% of the public accepting evolution.

  
The Ghost of Paley



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Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,05:15   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Communist Manifesto: 1848.

On the Origin of Species: 1859.

Do we have a QED here?


No, "we" don't. The Communist Manifesto is just a bunch of left-wing ranting. It reads like a joint pamphlet of Noam Chomsky and Martha Nussbaum. It has no substance. Karl and Fred's great work, Das Kapital, contains the theoetical foundation for their ideas, grounded thoroughly in Darwinism. It was Darwinism that animated the corspe that was socialist ideology prior to the 1860's

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
ericmurphy



Posts: 2460
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,05:20   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote (The Ghost of Paley @ Nov. 01 2005,11:15)
Karl and Fred's great work, Das Kapital, contains the theoetical foundation for their ideas, grounded thoroughly in Darwinism. It was Darwinism that animated the corspe that was socialist ideology prior to the 1860's

Nice try, Bill. Capitalism is based on Darwinism, not Communism. "From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs." Yep, that's clearly derived right from the "Survival of the Fittest."

Do you honestly think Lysenko was based on Darwinism? I'm pretty sure Darwin didn't believe in the heritability of acquired characteristics, which is central to Lysenkoism.

--------------
2006 MVD award for most dogged defense of scientific sanity

"Atheism is a religion the same way NOT collecting stamps is a hobby." —Scott Adams

  
The Ghost of Paley



Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,07:05   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Communist Manifesto: 1848.

On the Origin of Species: 1859.

Do we have a QED here?

 One other thing. When Christians invoke Darwinism, we are discussing something broader than Charles D's scribblings. The roots of Darwinism are found in Milesian philosophy, and reached their apex in Malthus and, ironically enough, Erasmus Darwin. Chuck himself was rather dimwitted, and obviously let someone rifle Grandpa's manuscripts while watching Huxley take the pratfalls in public. I often wonder what Chuck thought when he stared, slack-jawed, at the pages of his own "work". You guys should be ashamed of yourselves for exploiting an obvious imbecile to advance your satan-breathed ideology. And Marx should be ashamed for trashing and then plagiarizing Malthus. But I guess the ends justify the means, no?
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Do you honestly think Lysenko was based on Darwinism? I'm pretty sure Darwin didn't believe in the heritability of acquired characteristics, which is central to Lysenkoism.

 As I've just stated, Darwin petit-fils had enough trouble dressing himself each morning to corcern himself with such, but his books do rely on lamarckian inheritance as a supplement to natural selection.

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
MidnightVoice



Posts: 380
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,07:08   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Well, at least 67% think that it is possible to believe in both God and evolution, which is encouraging.

And don't forget we are talking about the USA here, which is unusual amongst the developed nations in that a very high percentage of the population claim that religion is very important in their lives.  Europe, for example, is much more secular.  The States is closer to a developing country in this specific regard.

--------------
If I fly the coop some time
And take nothing but a grip
With the few good books that really count
It's a necessary trip

I'll be gone with the girl in the gold silk jacket
The girl with the pearl-driller's hands

  
The Ghost of Paley



Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,07:37   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
And don't forget we are talking about the USA here, which is unusual amongst the developed nations in that a very high percentage of the population claim that religion is very important in their lives.  Europe, for example, is much more secular.  The States is closer to a developing country in this specific regard.

 What's funny about this is that Americans are also happier than Europeans in general - if anyone asks for the source, I'll dig it up under the condition that the skeptic subsequently concedes that high levels of religious belief and personal contentment might be causally linked.

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
GCT



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(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,07:51   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Or it could be that high levels of wealth and personal contentment are causally linked?

  
The Ghost of Paley



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(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,07:55   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Or it could be that high levels of wealth and personal contentment are causally linked?

 No, that's pretty well been debunked. Even lottery winners decline to previous levels of happiness after a couple of years. But ignorance is bliss, or so I hear.....

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
cogzoid



Posts: 234
Joined: Sep. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 01 2005,13:20   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Lottery winners are special cases, Paley, and you're right: large windfalls don't result in permanent happiness.  It's usually just temporary.  But, on the other hand, Americans overall have a high level of contentedness.  It is difficult to discover the source of that happiness.  Sure, you say that we're more religous, it must be due to that.  This guy and his study show that happiness is not the whole of the equation.
 
I'm actually curious what you have to say about his data.  I'm sure you have our own explanation as to why the more religious country (ours) has more murders, abortion, and STDs than the more secular countries in Europe.  I'm going to guess that you are going to dismiss it outright.

  
The Ghost of Paley



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(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,04:04   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
This guy and his study show that happiness is not the whole of the equation.

I'm actually curious what you have to say about his data.  I'm sure you have our own explanation as to why the more religious country (ours) has more murders, abortion, and STDs than the more secular countries in Europe.  I'm going to guess that you are going to dismiss it outright.

   How can I dismiss data that I can't see? The blurb doesn't link to the study, so the reader is left in the dark (perhaps deliberately?) when it comes to the author's methodology, sample size, etc. Lines such as this:
 
Quote
“Many Americans agree that their churchgoing nation is an exceptional, God-blessed, shining city on the hill that stands as an impressive example for an increasingly sceptical world"

don't exactly inspire confidence in the author's objectivity. Is the study online, and if not, would you mind giving a brief summary? Trust me, I won't run away.

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
Ved



Posts: 398
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(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,05:09   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
But ignorance is bliss, or so I hear.....

Bingo!

  
cogzoid



Posts: 234
Joined: Sep. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,07:34   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
How can I dismiss data that I can't see?


Fair enough.

Here's data on murder rates by country:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/cri_mur_cap

Notice how the US is in the top 25 in between great countries like Bulgaria and Armenia.  While most of civilized (and secular!) Europe have half or less of the murder rate.

I found this bit of data on abortions:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/hea_abo_cap

And finally rapes:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/cri_rap_cap

Are you noticing a trend?

Aren't we the moral ones?  Maybe those other secular countries are just lying about their immorality.  They're the type, afterall.

Don't focus on the author's interpretation.  Focus on the data.  Let's have your interpretation.

-Dan

  
The Ghost of Paley



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(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,07:45   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
I'm actually curious what you have to say about his data.

 To give you additional guidance, here are some questions I ask of any cross-national survey:
 1) Did the study make demographic adjustments at any point? (Are white, middle-class Americans compared with white, middle-class Europeans? Or at least did they compare similar races? If not, the study is a joke.)
 2) Were adjustments made for the varying percentages of 15-35 (or similar-aged) men in the respective populations? If not, the study is propaganda.
 3) Are there any other considerations (population density, gun laws, etc.)? If not, the study is compromised.

 Remember, Mr. Cogzoid, academics really, really loathe white, heterosexual Christian men, and this influences their work. I'm not whining, just stating a fact. But I'll respond to your study if you fill in some details.

  I hope this helps.

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
cogzoid



Posts: 234
Joined: Sep. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,08:17   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

The data I gave you did not take into account race, creed, or social status.  It is only giving you the numbers.  There are plenty of other stats on that site that you can look at to see those things.

The problem here became clear to me while reading your post.
Quote
Remember, Mr. Cogzoid, academics really, really loathe white, heterosexual Christian men, and this influences their work.
I don't think this is true at all.  In fact, most academics ARE white, heterosexual Christian men.  You might as well make another baseless claim like "Jesus ate babies!"  I think you are confusing race caused crime with socio-economic caused crime.  Are blacks more likely to commit crimes, or are poor people more likely to commit crimes?  What about middle class blacks, do they commit crimes?  What about poor whites?  Do you have any numbers to suggest that race is the bigger factor than the size of their paycheck?

Crime, abortion, and other social ills are a product of the society, and we are all apart of that society, even the white, heterosexual, Christian men.  Our nation's religion doesn't seem to be doing much to thwart the tide of those social ills.  It's an empty statement to say that religion helps our nation in any way.  Show me the numbers, man.  I showed you the numbers that suggest that a lack of religion doesn't hurt social ills.  Just look at the liberal Dutch.  They even teach evolution in schools there!

-Dan

  
The Ghost of Paley



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Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,10:33   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Show me the numbers, man.  I showed you the numbers that suggest that a lack of religion doesn't hurt social ills.

 First, a few numbers.
 Also, see here.
 Notice two things: when comparing violent assaults, suddenly the U.S. doesn't look so bad:

Serious Assault per 100,000.
1. Australia 713.68
2. England & Wales 405.20
3. United States 357.94
Taiwan 37.30
Spain 23.94
Japan 15.40

But what about that murder rate? To answer your question:
Quote
Are blacks more likely to commit crimes, or are poor people more likely to commit crimes?


 Homicide Offender Rate/100,000 by Race in US (2000):

3.4 - White
25.8 - Black
3.2 - Other
 Note: this doesn't take into account the reasons behind the discrepancy. But notice this bit:

Thus if you remove homicides committed by blacks (total: 21862, Blacks:9316), and assume a proportionality between number of offenders and number of offenses, you can extrapolate US homicide offender rate of only 2.6/100,000, lower than Germany (3.27) and France (3.91).

 This demonstates my earlier point about the need for caution when comparing America with more ethnically homogeneous countries. This point also applies to other social ills. Think about this: if Christianity is so useless in creating a stable society, then why did America's exploding crime rates coincide with the secularization of the public sphere in the mid-sixties? And why did crime rates start falling after Reagan assumed office and Christians resumed a more active role in public life? And morality is indeed tied to crime: check out Giuliani's application of the "Broken Windows" theory to New York City. Get rid of the hookers and grifters, and watch the murder rate drop. Liberals predicted the utter failure of this approach, which of course demonstrated its usefulness to any rational mind. Its subsequent success was practically guaranteed.
 Wait, it gets worse: the FBI (coincidentally, I am sure) includes Hispanic criminals under the "White Offenders" hate crimes category, even though Hispanic victims get their own box. This, of course, artificially inflates the crime rates of European-Americans. Now, who doesn't have it in for us?

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
MidnightVoice



Posts: 380
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,11:37   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote (The Ghost of Paley @ Nov. 02 2005,16:33)
Think about this: if Christianity is so useless in creating a stable society, then why did America's exploding crime rates coincide with the secularization of the public sphere in the mid-sixties? And why did crime rates start falling after Reagan assumed office and Christians resumed a more active role in public life?

If you check the statistics, it is because Roe vs Wade made abortion available.  The subsequent reduction in teenagers caused the reduction in crime rate.

Quite fascinating stuff, statistics.

--------------
If I fly the coop some time
And take nothing but a grip
With the few good books that really count
It's a necessary trip

I'll be gone with the girl in the gold silk jacket
The girl with the pearl-driller's hands

  
The Ghost of Paley



Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,11:49   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
The problem here became clear to me while reading your post.
Quote  
Remember, Mr. Cogzoid, academics really, really loathe white, heterosexual Christian men, and this influences their work.
I don't think this is true at all.  In fact, most academics ARE white, heterosexual Christian men.  You might as well make another baseless claim like "Jesus ate babies!"

   Undoubtedly academics are mostly white, straight, and Christian (although do you have a source for the latter? I suspect the rates of atheism among professors, if uncovered, would raise Middle America's roof!;)) But how is this inconsistent with my contention? Self-hatred and "enlightenment" values go hand-in-hand, after all. Well, that's all for now. Later, I'll hand out a fun homework assignment and answer any follow-up questions..........

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
cogzoid



Posts: 234
Joined: Sep. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,14:25   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Paley,

Quote
Serious Assault per 100,000.
1. Australia 713.68
2. England & Wales 405.20
3. United States 357.94
Taiwan 37.30
Spain 23.94
Japan 15.40

Why don't your numbers match these numbers?

I trust nationmaster.com a little more, as they are not trying to make a social point about anything, just supplying data.

I agree that blacks are disproportionally responsible for crime in America.  However, they are also disproportionally poor.  I'm not convinced that being black makes you a criminal.  I am convinced that being poor increases your chances of a life of crime.  And that being black increases your chances of being poor.  The question is, if whites were more likely to be poor, would whites be disproportionally responsible for crime.  I would say yes.  But our society hasn't run that experiment, yet.

Quote
Thus if you remove homicides committed by blacks (total: 21862, Blacks:9316), and assume a proportionality between number of offenders and number of offenses, you can extrapolate US homicide offender rate of only 2.6/100,000, lower than Germany (3.27) and France (3.91).
Your logic is flawed.  For in removing black crimes you are also removing poor crimes in America, while not removing poor crimes from the other countries (which they certainly have).  This flawed logic of yours seems to be a theme.

Quote
Think about this: if Christianity is so useless in creating a stable society, then why did America's exploding crime rates coincide with the secularization of the public sphere in the mid-sixties?
 When the baby boomers reached their late teens crime increased.  That's when people do crime.  No suprise there.  The coinciding was a coincidence.


Quote
And why did crime rates start falling after Reagan assumed office and Christians resumed a more active role in public life?
Because that happens to be about 20 years after Roe v. Wade.  Unwanted children are more likely to become criminals.  And since more unwanted children were aborted after Roe v. Wade there were less criminals 17-20 years afterward.  Simple math.  And it relies nothing on Reagan.


Quote
And morality is indeed tied to crime: check out Giuliani's application of the "Broken Windows" theory to New York City. Get rid of the hookers and grifters, and watch the murder rate drop. Liberals predicted the utter failure of this approach, which of course demonstrated its usefulness to any rational mind. Its subsequent success was practically guaranteed.
 But crime plummeted in cities that DIDN'T apply Giuliani's theory.  All across our nation.  There is no consistent correlation between crime fighting methods and less crime.  You are confused with correlation and causation.  Giuliani may have been in charge when crime fell, but that doesn't mean he was the cause.

-Dan

  
The Ghost of Paley



Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 02 2005,15:54   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Why don't your numbers match these numbers?

 Try here if you want some background.
 Please sample Figures 6 and 7 while you're browsing.
Quote
I agree that blacks are disproportionally responsible for crime in America.  However, they are also disproportionally poor.  I'm not convinced that being black makes you a criminal.  I am convinced that being poor increases your chances of a life of crime.

 My purpose is not to bash black people, nor suggest that they are genetically predisposed to crime. I'm just saying we should control for as many variables as possible. If you want to adjust for SES, then do so. But let's compare similar groups, like, ohhhhhh....middle-class white people, for example. I'm afraid you won't like the results, however.
 
Quote
Quote  
And why did crime rates start falling after Reagan assumed office and Christians resumed a more active role in public life?
Because that happens to be about 20 years after Roe v. Wade.  Unwanted children are more likely to become criminals.  And since more unwanted children were aborted after Roe v. Wade there were less criminals 17-20 years afterward.  Simple math.  And it relies nothing on Reagan.

My cipherin' suggests a period of 8 years. But then, I never did get the New Math.
Quote
When the baby boomers reached their late teens crime increased.  That's when people do crime.  No suprise there.  The coinciding was a coincidence.

 The Woodstock generation turning to debauchery I can believe. But if you read criminology books from the time period, the overriding concern was the nature of the crime committed, not merely its frequency. The utter viciousness and callousness of the young thugs shocked many seasoned professionals. All except evolutionists, of course. But they're hardly professional, so never mind.
 
Quote
But crime plummeted in cities that DIDN'T apply Giuliani's theory.  All across our nation.

Not really. I don't have a source handy, but much of the decline was attributable to a handful of big cities such as New York and Boston. You know, the cities that started patrolling their red-light districts. But what am I telling you guys for, ya'll are probably still sporting the bruises.... :D

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
MidnightVoice



Posts: 380
Joined: Aug. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 03 2005,03:59   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote (The Ghost of Paley @ Nov. 02 2005,21:54)
But if you read criminology books from the time period, the overriding concern was the nature of the crime committed, not merely its frequency.

Hmm - if you read the current literature instead of the out of date literature, maybe you would be more aware of what was going on.  :)

--------------
If I fly the coop some time
And take nothing but a grip
With the few good books that really count
It's a necessary trip

I'll be gone with the girl in the gold silk jacket
The girl with the pearl-driller's hands

  
cogzoid



Posts: 234
Joined: Sep. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 03 2005,08:23   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Try here if you want some background.
 And why do these numbers disagree as well?  Can you explain the discrepency?  I didn't read all of that, as I don't have the time, nor do I really care all that much.  But if you want more, seemingly different data, check out figure 2b on this.


Quote
But let's compare similar groups, like, ohhhhhh....middle-class white people, for example. I'm afraid you won't like the results, however.
Numbers?

Quote
My cipherin' suggests a period of 8 years. But then, I never did get the New Math.
Clearly math is not your strong point at all. Crime rates fell in 94.  Roe Vs. Wade was decided in 73.  That makes 21 years.

Here's an article that explains the logic.

Quote
Not really. I don't have a source handy, but much of the decline was attributable to a handful of big cities such as New York and Boston.
 Simply false.

-Dan

  
The Ghost of Paley



Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 03 2005,12:10   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
Hmm - if you read the current literature instead of the out of date literature, maybe you would be more aware of what was going on.

 Go back to your Playstation, sonny. The big people are talking.
Quote
And why do these numbers disagree as well?  Can you explain the discrepency?  I didn't read all of that, as I don't have the time, nor do I really care all that much.  But if you want more, seemingly different data, check out figure 2b on this.

 Hey, I'm not the one who mistook a newsblurb for a scientific survey, and then switched to a different set of figures when pressed for more detail. But if you could ever trouble your bad self to click on the blue line, you'll see that the charts are derived from data compiled by the International Crime Victim Survey, which is...oh, who am I kidding. As if you'll ever look. Here:
Quote
The International Crime Victim Survey (ICVS) is the most farreaching programme of standardised sample surveys to look a householders’ experience with crime, policing, crime prevention and feelings of unsafety in a large number of countries. This page summarises the development of the ICVS.

There were two main reasons for setting up this project. The first was the inadequacy of offences recorded by the police for comparing crime in different countries. The second was the absence of any alternative standardised measure.

Police figures are problematic for comparative purposes because the vast majority of incidents the police know about are notified by victims, and any differences in propensity to report in different countries will undermine the comparability of the amount of crime counted by the police. Moreover, official police figures vary because of differences in legal definitions, recording practices, and precise rules for classifying and counting incidents. These limitations are well-established. A number of countries have independently mounted crime or ‘victimisation’ surveys to asses national crime problems- and the ICVS mirrors their approach. Such surveys ask representative samples of the population about selected offences they have experienced over a given time. They are interested in incidents are whether or not reported to the police, and indeed, the reasons why people do and do not choose to notify the police. They thus provide both a more realistic count of how many people are affected by crime and - if the surveys are repeated- a measure of trends in crime, unaffected by changes in victims’ reporting behaviour or administrative changes in recording crime.


 As for the methodology:
Quote
CATI method

The technical management of all (but Finland and Malta) of the surveys in the industrialised countries has been carried out by Interview, a Dutch surveying company. Interview subcontracted fieldwork to survey companies in the participating countries, while maintaining responsibility for the questionnaire, sample selection and inteview procedures. The survey on Malta was done according to the Face to Face method, supervised by UNICRI.

sampling: a sample of between 1000 and 2000 households was drawn by random dialing of telephone numbers. Non relavant contacts (like companies) were ignored. Within a household, there was a random selection of a household member aged over 16. In case of a refusal, this household member was not replaced. The process continues until the agreed amount of completed interviews were reached. An exeption to this procedure is Finland, a random selection of individual were drawn from the population register. Also an exeption was Northern Ireland and some rural parts of Spain, since telephone penatration was low the interviews were taken face to face, but also computer assisted.

response rates: in the eleven industrialised countries in the 1996 sweep taken as a whole, 67% of the respondents selected for interview agreed to take part. this was an improvement on the overall response rate of 60% for the twelve countries of the 1992 sweep and on the 43% response rate in 1989. In 1996, response varied from 40% in the USA to 80% or more in Austria, Finland and Northern Ireland. For the seven countries which took part both in 1992 and 1996, the response rate was about the same or better in five, but fell slightly in two (the Netherlands and USA). For the three countries which had surveys in 1996 and 1989, responses were lower in Switzerland but higher in the other two.

CATI: the interviews were done by telephone. The interviewer reads the questions (and instructions) from a computer screen. The answers are directly entered into the computer system and used to select the next question. (For instance, the items on car crimes were skipped if the household has no cars.)



 There's much more, of course, but this will get you started. Of course, I can't read it out loud to you.
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Clearly math is not your strong point at all. Crime rates fell in 94.  Roe Vs. Wade was decided in 73.  That makes 21 years.

Why, it certainly does. But the time from Roe v. Wade to the Reagan presidency was only 8 years, just as I wrote, apparently to no avail. And that's when crime started falling. I must admit, however, that it did start rising again in the mid-eighties, so there wasn't as much net change during the Big R's tenure as I thought. And I am aware that crime continued to jump until the Republican Revolution in 1994. When, of course, crime immediately began to plummet despite dire liberal forecasts of the crime wave sure to follow in the wake of welfare reform. By the way, whatever your reader charges, it's way too much.
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But crime plummeted in cities that DIDN'T apply Giuliani's theory.  All across our nation.  There is no consistent correlation between crime fighting methods and less crime.

Sorry, but there was something special about the crime drop in the Big Apple, no matter how badly you may want to wish it away.* I bet you wept in frustration as Giuliani exposed the city's gangsta-hugging tactics for the crap they were, and are. So typical: conservatives have to change the tire in the thunderstorm while the libs watch from the safety of the local Starbuck's. And bitch about how warm their frappuccino's getting.
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I don't have a source handy, but much of the decline was attributable to a handful of big cities such as New York and Boston.
Simply false.

Really?
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Another facet of the recent decline is that until lately it has been driven primarily by the largest U.S. cities. In 1995, 40 percent of the national drop in homicide could be accounted for by just six cities. Given its large share of the national population, and its relatively high homicide rate in 1993, New York City’s 67 percent reduction in homicide from 1993 to 1998 itself accounts for 17 percent of the national decline during this period. But New York’s experience has not been unique; over the same period, the number of homicides has dropped in San Diego by 68 percent, in Boston by 65 percent, in Los Angeles by 60 percent, in San Antonio by 60 percent, in Houston by 43 percent, in New Orleans by 42 percent, in Detroit by 26 percent, in Philadelphia by 23 percent, in Dallas by 21 percent, and in Chicago by 18 percent. Together with New York, these cities account for 8 percent of the national population, but 59 percent of the decline in homicides. For 1999, statistics from the FBI’s preliminary Uniform Crime Report indicate that the largest drops are now occurring in smaller cities, such as Nashville, Tennessee, at 50 percent, and Fort Wayne, Indiana, at 41 percent, as the largest urban areas have now bottomed out.

 While you're at it, fire your fact-checker as well. :p



*Here's a homework exercise for Constant Lurker: name the sources the author uses to validate the official numbers, and compare with Paley's sources. Discuss any similarities you see.

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
ericmurphy



Posts: 2460
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 03 2005,12:45   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

I'm trying to imagine what this has to do with the Steves project...

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2006 MVD award for most dogged defense of scientific sanity

"Atheism is a religion the same way NOT collecting stamps is a hobby." —Scott Adams

  
The Ghost of Paley



Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 03 2005,12:54   

[Graffiti moved to Bathroom Wall. - Wesley R. Elsberry]

Quote
I'm trying to imagine what this has to do with the Steves project...

 Just tryin' to reclaim them, one steve at a time.....

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Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  
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