Joined: Oct. 2005
|Quote (Southstar @ Nov. 20 2012,12:38)|
|Quote (Jerry Don Bauer @ Nov. 20 2012,10:12)|
|The odds against assembling a protein chain consisting of only left-handed amino acids by chance is 2 to the “n” th power. And “n” is the number of attached amino acids in the protein. So its not difficult to calculate that the odds against assembling a useable protein of only 250 left-handed amino acids from a racemized mixture is one chance in 2 to the 250th power. This is about 1 chance in 10 to the 74th power. |
And some of the proteins found in nature are 50,000 chained amino acids. The odds of assembling a protein that long are 1:10^15,000
These were designed.
To calculate the organism, we have to multiply together the odds of each one of our amino acids. When we do we come out with a 1:10^7400 chance that this tiny, highly unrealistic and overly simplistic organism could ever form. These are staggering odds that could not occur in reality.
Sorry your maths is way off... ever study statistics? You should look into that before doing probability calculations.
The odds against a protein chain consisting of only left-handed amino acids by chance is 2 to the “n” the power. Yes... and what happened to all the other variables? did the cat eat 'em?
One of the fundamental variables is the number of amino acids evolved. I.e. how many acids are singularly playing the game. It's all fine and dandy to say that it's very hard to win the lottery but if your chances of winning are 1:1 million you can bet that if one million people play someone's going to win. What you have to ask yourself is how many amino acids can fit in a square meter of primal pond then ask yourself how many cubic kilometres of pond you have.
The second variable is time. How many attempts at combining are being played per second and how much time do they have to hit a meaningful combination... you haven't put this in your equation.
Third you don't need to get the complete sequence in the first shot you could have a cumulative sequence which would mean that you don’t reset the game if say on first time you get a string of 5 amino acids.
Now why don't you rewrite your math and add these variables in...
He would also have to include quite a bit of additional work because not all amino acids are equally likely to bond with a given amino acid. So he's got about n!/(r!(n-r)!) = (21*20)/2 =210 reactions he needs to separately consider in his dumbass 'calculation'.
Get to work Jerry! Lots of fake science to keep you busy. When you're done you should submit it to PCID. After the Kitzmiller trial, for some reason they ran out of 'research' to publish. Damnedest thing I've ever seen. Almost like it wasn't actual research, but propaganda that was suddenly useless....