Zachriel
Posts: 2717 Joined: Sep. 2006

Quote  Ewert 2014: The largest model considered here, Avida, uses approximately fifty million digital organisms [14]. The smallest model considered, Sadedin’s geometric model, uses fifty thousand digital organisms [17]. The individual components should be improbable enough that the average guessing time exceeds these numbers. We can determine this probability by taking one over the cube root of the number of digital organisms in the model. We are taking the cube root because we are assuming the minimal number of parts to be three. The actual system may have more parts, but we are interested in the level of complexity that would make it impossible to produce any system of several parts. Making this calculation gives us minimal required levels for complexity of approximately 1/368 for Avida and 1/37 for Sadedin’s model. 
If you want to know the probability of calculating the random assembly of a specific sequence of three with an alphabet of 26, it is 1/(26^3) = 1/17576.
If there is a population of random sequences of 50 million, then it is virtually certain to occur. However, if the specific sequence has a length of nineteen, then the probability is 1/(26^19) = 1/7e26, which is virtually impossible in 50 million trials, or even 50 million trials a million million times.
 xposted from uncommon thread

You never step on the same tard twiceâ€”for it's not the same tard and you're not the same person.
