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  Topic: From "LUCA" thread, Paley's Ghost can back up his assertions< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  
The Ghost of Paley

Posts: 1703
Joined: Oct. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: Nov. 20 2005,11:52   

Hi Cogzoid.
Yep. And even linked to a study backing it up. Which you dismissed without cause.
I cited your study which claimed that crime rates dropped in cities across the country including, if I recall correctly: Los Angeles, San Diego, Dallas, Denver, and New Orleans.  Are you claiming that Guiliani's and the Republican's influence affected all of these locations?  You're really straining the logic, my friend.

    You're mixing the studies up, but that's OK; I get the point. My point is that Guiliani was really responsible for the crime drop in New York City, an assertion you didn't challenge. And do you really trust N'Awlin's finest to compile accurate crime statistics?
Fluctuations happen, what's your point?  Notice the trend in '94.  WHILE A DEMOCRAT WAS IN OFFICE.  I like how you point to Reagen when crime slightly drops in the '80s and Newt when crime plummets in the '90s.  I'm not going to let you claim victory for this one, I'm sorry.

 It seems like I'm equivocating, doesn't it? But I'm not. Focus on the accomplishments, not who was in charge, and you'll see that the 80's and mid 90's were much more conservative policy-wise than the 1988 - 1994 period. Even with Bush Sr..
This is known as confirmation bias, Paley.  You only remember when Republican predictions are correct and Liberal predictions are wrong.  There are plenty of Republican predictions that are plain old wrong.  Global warming and WMDs in Iraq immediately come to mind.

 Well, you've got me on Global Warming. As for the missing WMD, let me just say that I think it's cruel to pick on the mentally retarded, even when they become president. :D
I'm very skeptical of your "Color of Crime" study.  Does it take into account the fact that blacks are targeted by police at higher rates.  I read some study that pointed out that blacks use some percentage, say 15-20%, of the drugs in this country but account for, 50-60%, of the drug arrests.

 After you left,  MidnightVoice floated a similar argument. Please see my response to him. And yes, the study does anticipate your counter.
Charges of racial profiling, which maintain that police target innocent black motorists for traffic stops notwithstanding, a 2002 study by Maryland’s Public Service Research Institute found that police were stopping too few black speeders (23%), compared to their proportion of actual speeders (25%). In fact, “blacks were twice as likely to speed as whites” in general, and there was an even higher frequency of black speeders in the 90-mph and higher range.

“… the only evidence for police bias is disproportionate arrest rates for those groups police critics say are the targets of bias. High black arrest rates appear to reflect high crime rates, not police misconduct.”

  If Jared's reading this, he's probably laughing his ass off at all the free publicity you're giving him, Cogzoid.
But, that is a minor point overall.  Blacks may have higher crime rates.  I'll concede the point.

  :0  :0  :0  :0  :0
  Wow. I've really sold you short. You definitely have earned my respect.
However, you haven't yet justified why you have to exclude blacks when looking at our country as a whole.  Are they not as American as you and your white neighbors?  Are they not religious people?  Aren't they part of our society, whether you like it or not?  I believe this is the 3rd or 4th time I've asked you this very fundamental question.

 Then again, maybe not.
My purpose is not to bash black people, nor suggest that they are genetically predisposed to crime. I'm just saying we should control for as many variables as possible. If you want to adjust for SES, then do so. But let's compare similar groups, like, ohhhhhh....middle-class white people, for example. I'm afraid you won't like the results, however.

1) No, but let's face it: when evos talk about the "dangers" of fundamentalist Christianity, they're not referring to Joseph Lowery. They mean Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson. White Christians, in other words.
 2) When trying to measure the effects of a single variable (religion), it is important to match groups that are as identical as possible in all other ways. This avoids confounding factors.

 You do realise the importance of avoiding confounding factors, don't you, Cogzoid?

Dey can't 'andle my riddim.

  1058 replies since Aug. 31 2005,16:31 < Next Oldest | Next Newest >  

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