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  Topic: Design Prediction - Take Two< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  

Posts: 37
Joined: June 2004

(Permalink) Posted: April 14 2005,13:41   

I don't know why you are insisting on taking thing so slowly.

But OK, I happily accept that IF you know that 90% of a group have a particular property then a randomly chosen member of the group is 90% likely to have that property.

However I will point out that you have to know that 90% of the group DO have that property (or at least have a valid extrapolation that is not biased by the choice of sample).  And I hope that it is not necessary to note that the argument cannot be reversed so that it is argued that an individual with the property in question is 90% likely to belong to the group.

  32 replies since April 14 2005,10:46 < Next Oldest | Next Newest >  

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