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  Topic: Design Prediction - Take Two< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  
Michael Finley



Posts: 19
Joined: Mar. 2005

(Permalink) Posted: April 14 2005,10:46   

Consider the following example:

In the U.S. around 90% of blacks vote Democratic. Suppose I meet a black voter, and all that I know about him is that he's black and he's a voter. Can I reasonably predict that he votes Democratic, i.e., is it probable that he votes Democratic?

Of course he could vote Republican or third party. He could be among the 10% that do not vote Democratic. Nevertheless, if I do not know anything else about him other than his skin color and that he is a voter, isn't the reasonable (i.e., probable) prediction that he votes Democratic?

  
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