Joined: Jan. 2007
Holy cow. Niwrad is going to lecture us on probability theory now?
|If we have a 1% difference between the genomes in average we find a mismatch in a 100 base sequence, then 3 mismatches in a series of 10 30 base sequences. Hence the probability of finding a mismatch in a 30 base sequence is 3/10.|
No. The probability of finding an error in 30 trials with 99% correct rate is not 3/10. This is the kind of logic that would get you kicked out of undergraduate probability courses.
The correct answer is
P(at least one error) = 1-p(no errors) = 1-.99^30 ~= 0.26
I see that
CharlesJ caught this too.
Doesn't the Isaac Newton of information theory have any standards?