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  Topic: Uncommonly Dense Thread 3, The Beast Marches On...< Next Oldest | Next Newest >  
franky172



Posts: 158
Joined: Jan. 2007

(Permalink) Posted: Sep. 28 2010,07:58   

Holy cow. Niwrad is going to lecture us on probability theory now?

Quote
If we have a 1% difference between the genomes in average we find a mismatch in a 100 base sequence, then 3 mismatches in a series of 10 30 base sequences. Hence the probability of finding a mismatch in a 30 base sequence is 3/10.


No.  The probability of finding an error in 30 trials with 99% correct rate is not 3/10.  This is the kind of logic that would get you kicked out of undergraduate probability courses.

The correct answer is

P(at least one error) = 1-p(no errors) = 1-.99^30 ~= 0.26

I see that
CharlesJ caught this too.  

Doesn't the Isaac Newton of information theory have any standards?

  
  15001 replies since Sep. 04 2009,16:20 < Next Oldest | Next Newest >  

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