PuckSR
Posts: 314
Joined: Nov. 2005
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| Quote | I'm finding your reaction to the bridge hand question pretty unsupportable, way over the top.
We did not miss the point. Dawkins made a simple statement of chance and probability that was false, and he made it precisely to illustrate the point that it failed to illustrate. It illustrated indeed the opposite. His example if anything strengthens the argument he was trying to refute. Since the calculation is not one of very advanced math, and since Dawkins should certainly have spent a fair amount of time pondering exactly what chance can and cannot do, I find it pretty odd. |
Alright....lets begin by assuming that both Russel and Dawkins assumed that Spetner meant a "perfect hand" of bridge and not a "perfect deal".
You are indeed correct Avo, Spetner did get his calculations somewhat correct.....You would not normally use probability in this way. Your very old individual would have 1: 4 x 10^28 odds of getting a perfect deal every time. He might get his perfect deal on the first deal...even though the odds are very much against it. He would, however, have the exact same odds of getting a "perfect deal" on the second hand, and on the third. His odds would not diminish or increase with repetition. If you believe diminishing odds with repetition then you are committing what is commonly known as the "gambler's fallacy".
Russel and Dawkins however took Spetner literally to refer to a "perfect hand" of bridge....and a hand only refers to the cards dealt to one player. You should, at least, forgive them for this misunderstanding.
The point, however, is still perfectly valid. If the probability exists that something could occur and it is given a very large number of trials, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that it could happen.
Avo, a royal flush in poker is very rare in a 5 card stud game. If, however, you are dealt a perfect flush....no one would suggest that the odds make such a hand impossible. Yes, you were very lucky, but the mere fact that it is improbable does not mean that is does not occur.
This is the point of the entire "perfect bridge hand disccusion". Spetner is trying to suggest that while a chance exists for such an occurence, that the high improbability makes it impossible. Dawkins is trying to demonstrate that if the possibility exists....then you must accept that it could potentially occur.
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