Guts
Posts: 226
Joined: Nov. 2007
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Shorter Nelson: "ID can't predict shit, and there's nothing ID can explain that evolution can't. Now leave me alone, dumbass!"
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It's a lot more complex than that. Bayes Theorem seems to imply that there is no difference between prediction and accommodation, because the conditional probabilities used in Bayes Theorem are temporally neutral. There have been attempts to build such a distinction into a Bayesian epistemology, but the more common move among Bayesians is to deny the importance of the distinction. For example, Einstein's Relativity Theory got support from the fact that it correctly implied the precession of the perihelion of Mercury, though that information was known long before Einstein formulated the theory. I myself am sympathetic to the view that accurate prediction provides more confirmational support than accommodation, but most Bayesians would not agree.
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